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End Game
The Sword Of Damocles: An Economic Worst-Case Scenario For The Israeli-Palestine War
On Tuesday, I published a post on X (Twitter), which summarized an economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war. It included 10 points:
The conflict escalates into a regional war with the U.S. becoming directly involved.
OPEC responds with an oil embargo.
Iran closes the strait of Hormuz.
The price of oil reaches $300/barrel.
Europe succumbs into a full-blown energy crisis due to LNG shortage.
Massive spike in energy prices reinvigorates inflation with central banks responding accordingly.
Financial markets and the global banking sector collapse.
Debt crisis engulfs the U.S. forcing the Federal Reserve to enact yet another financial market bailout.
Petrodollar trade collapses.
Hyperinflation emerges.
Israel-Hamas War Latest: Israeli Troops Amass At Border As Iran Warns It Will Intervene If Ground Offensive Launched
After giving the northern Gaza strip an evacuation ultimatum on Friday, Israel has so far withheld from launching a "significant" ground operation, with some speculating that requests from the US to evacuate all US citizens out of Palestine ahead of the invasion is what is holding Israel back. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister on Saturday said that if Israeli “war crimes & genocide” are not stopped, the war might expand to other parts of the Middle East if Hezbollah joins the battle, and that would make Israel suffer “a huge earthquake.” Meanwhile, Axios reported that Tehran has sent Jerusalem a message through the UN that it will intervene if the campaign in Gaza continues, and particularly if it launches a ground offensive.
This was followed by news Sunday morning that the US has been backchanneling with Iran in recent days to warn against escalating the conflict in Israel (after all, Biden can't afford to lose those sanctioned Iranian oil exports whose re-embargo would promptly send the price of oil above $100).
Another reason why Israel may be waiting: the Pentagon confirmed that it has ordered a second carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea after a first carrier strike group, led by the USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived off the coast of Israel last week.
Background:
On Saturday, the Israeli army said it’s making preparations for “significant ground operations” in Gaza, with the Israel Defense Forces saying in a statement that the next phase of the war can include a coordinated land, sea and air assault.
Israel has called up a record 300,000 reservists and has been pounding Gaza after the unprecedented incursion in which more than 1,000 Hamas fighters swept across the border and attacked Israeli military posts, bases and settlements. More than 1,300 Israelis died, mostly civilians, and up to 150 people were abducted and taken into Gaza. More than 1,900 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli bombing campaign as fears mount of major casualties once Israel sends troops into the crowded coastal strip, home to 2.3 million people. Israel on Friday gave 24 hours for more than 1 million Palestinians to evacuate their homes in Gaza.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-hamas-war-latest-israeli-troops-amass-border-iran-warns-against-ground
History : First video of the Israeli Iron Beam, laser air defense system, intercepting enemy rockets, from today.
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