Economic Schedule for Week of October 29, 2023-Fed pause
()=additional comments
The key report this week is the October employment report on Friday. (The Fed continues to use the shit known as the Phillips curve which assumes inflation is tied to employment and vice versa which is a total fallacy so look for them to continue to say “higher for longer”….which is just Prime….the bond market sets rates not the FOMC as much as they would like to have you believe..all the Sovereign US Debt sales is wut responsible for where rates are at and that heavy lifting already been done and why they will just sit on Prime and continue to blow smoke out of asses)
Other key indicators include the Case-Shiller house prices for August, October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales.
The FOMC meets this week and no change to policy is expected….(or in December)
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Monday, October 30th -
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.
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Tuesday, October 31st -
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August. The consensus is for the Composite 20 index to be up 0.1% year-over-year.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 44.8, up from 44.1 in September. (Anything below 50 in these surveys reflect contraction so quite how fridays GDP continue to forecast growth is moar fun with #s)
10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.
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Wednesday, November 1st -
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. (Moar carnage and pinned to multi-decade lows)
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, up from 89,000 in September.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS. Jobs openings increased in August to 9.61 million from 8.92 million in July. The number of job openings (black) were down 6% year-over-year. Quits were down 14% year-over-year.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for 49.0, unchanged from 49.0.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to FOMC policy is expected at this meeting.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
All day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for sales of 15.1 million SAAR, down from 15.7 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
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Thursday, November 2nd -
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 214 thousand initial claims, up from 210 thousand last week.
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Friday, November 3rd -
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 168,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%. There were 336,000 jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 3.8%. (Yet another opp for a revision downwards as usual)
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October. The consensus is for a decrease to 53.0 from 53.6.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/10/schedule-for-week-of-october-29-2023.html?m=1