STAGE 1. THE “CRISIS”: Some situation exists, whose negative

aspects the anointed propose to eliminate. Such a situation is

routinely characterized as a “crisis,” even though all human

situations have negative aspects, and even though evidence is

seldom asked or given to show how the situation at hand is either

uniquely bad or threatening to get worse. Sometimes the

situation described as a “crisis” has in fact already been getting

better for years.

STAGE 2. THE “SOLUTION”: Policies to end the “crisis” are

advocated by the anointed, who say that these policies will lead

to beneficial result A. Critics say that these policies will lead to

detrimental result Z. The anointed dismiss these latter claims as

absurd and “simplistic,” if not dishonest.

STAGE 3. THE RESULTS: The policies are instituted and lead to

detrimental result Z.

STAGE 4. THE RESPONSE: Those who attribute detrimental result

Z to the policies instituted are dismissed as “simplistic” for

ignoring the “complexities” involved, as “many factors” went into

determining the outcome. The burden of proof is put on the

critics to demonstrate to a certainty that these policies alone

were the only possible cause of the worsening that occurred. No

burden of proof whatever is put on those who had so confidently

predicted improvement. Indeed, it is often asserted that things

would have been even worse, were it not for the wonderful

programs that mitigated the inevitable damage from other

factors.

—The vision of the anointed: Self-congratulation as a basis for social

policy / Thomas Sowell.

Compare to CV19 reaction, Ukraine war, Isreal V. Hamas. In fact pretty much pick your favorite from the last 50+ years.

This really struck me re: CV19 because it played out on such a compressed timeline. We're all gonna die -two weeks to flatten the curve -> wear a mask etc. -> wear two masks -> vaccines for everyone

I do not claim to be in Sowell's league but would add three additional observations:

1. The elites believe if what you are doing isn't working then you aren't doing enough of it.

2. If there is no readily available crisis the elites have no problem with manufacturing one.

3. Never confuse an ideologue with reality, it just makes them grumpy.