>>19906353

TyEB

>>19906496

Not enough supply for doom crash

Most (smart) peeps refi’d at 3-5% 30y fixed so unless they have to sell they won’t.

People are forced to move for reasons out of control but if given a choice ain’t no one exchanging a rate of 3-5% for an avg (that doesn’t include a multitude of individual variables) for an avg of 7.87%

The issue is not enough supply because of the above dynamic as the home builders LOVE this because the higher the prices go the more they want to build

Economic Schedule for Week of November 12, 2023

()=additional comments

(Last week pretty slow for data but picks up a little this week with retail sales, the weekly MBA #s and both CPI and PPI. Several regional surveys as well. Atlanta Fed releases its updated fantasyland GDPNOW projections on Weds Nov 15th and after briefly dropping below the ‘consensus’ it was quickly raised above it. Sits at a farcical 2.1% but was as high as 5.4% as recently as the hilarious BLS # release. Consumer Inflation Expectations rose for the 4th straight month on Friday and as usual Wall Street ignored that-the narrative is crumbling and it is still in the process of creating history’s largest blow off top EVER. Most corporate share buybacks have exited the earnings blackout period (79% out and all out by Dec 8th) so look for this market to move higher using that as additional fuel-they’ll be a few bumps here and there but those won’t last more than 2-3 days or they risk margin calling themselves which creates a doom loop of asset sales. ‘Bot trading will keep it propped and the system has to try and restore the 60/40 investment strategy heading into Christmas-or there’s gonna be a lot of G.I. Joes with the kung fu grip go unsold and the mistresses all need the new Benz’ too. ‘Bots are short HARD (why wouldn’t they be as data sucks?) but they follow indexes so all it takes is a move to the upside to trigger those ‘bots to cover those record short positions)

Atlanta Fed GDPNOW

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

The key economic reports this week are October CPI, Retail Sales, and Housing Starts.

For manufacturing, October industrial production, and the November New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week.

• Monday, November 13th -

No major economic releases scheduled.(Markets are open however)

• Tuesday, November 14th -

6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.3% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 4.1% YoY.

• Wednesday, November 15th -

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. (The national avg for a 30y is @7.87% as of today -Sunday-so don’t expect much improvement here)

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in retail sales. (This is NOT adjusted for inflation so any drop going into the busiest shopping season of the year reflects very poor demand-just look at crude oil pricing for example)

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of -2.6, up from -4.6.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October(a leading indicator for commercial real estate)…..and how they spin THIS ought to be pretty funny)

• Thursday, November 16th -

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 222 thousand initial claims, up from 217 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of -11.0, down from -9.0.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October

The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 79.4%.

10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 40, unchanged from 40. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

• Friday, November 17th -

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for October. The consensus is for 1.345 million SAAR, down from 1.358 million SAAR.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/schedule-for-week-of-november-12-2023.html

https://www.cnbc.com/index-futures/

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

https://www.cnbc.com/asia-markets/

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR#0

>>19906588

No argument here…..it never changed so agree

Just trying to source for an additional garden box was ridiculous (pricing).

What was spent 3 seasons ago was $80….it’s now almost double and that was at least 3 months ago price wise…so it’s clay pots for now.

Easier to manage but less production.

Backed themselves into a corner they did by having zero wage growth (unofficially of course) but continuing to spew the “we got this” crap

>>19906659

>>19906646

What yer tryin’ to say is Solar Micronova

Not completely convinced it’s gonna habben as say Suspicious Observers paints it but we will have a CME that kills the power grid

Rare Government Support Seeks To Contain China Debt Risks

Fresh signs of official support for debt-laden property firms emerged, triggering a relief rally in developers’ dollar bonds. China Vanke, a major developer recently rattled by repayment worries, received unusually strong support from officials in its hometown of Shenzhen last Monday.

Then came a report by local media Cailian on a meeting among the central bank, other regulators and top builders including Vanke, Longfor, and Gemdale. The first two builders’ dollar notes jumped on the news-(that was reported on Thursday last week-see article linky below)

Market confidence in developer bonds now comes from government support - similar to those of local government financing vehicles, Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities, wrote in a note. Although it takes time for the property sector to recover, vulture investors may already see value in some securities, he added.

In a contrasting example, Country Garden Holdings’ shares plunged nearly 10% Thursday after Ping An Insurance Group denied a Reuters report that authorities asked the insurer to buy the embattled developer. Ping An itself also suffered a $5.5 billion stock selloff, indicating only the state, rather than any private-sector firm, has the capacity to bail out a company of Country Garden’s size.

The People’s Bank of China also has debt-laden regions on its mind. Governor Pan Gongsheng pledged to provide emergency funding to heavily indebted local governments as needed, showing a sense of urgency on preventing repayment risks at regional authorities from derailing a patchy economic recovery.

In another sign that Beijing is tightening scrutiny of the issue, the Ministry of Finance listed eight cases of irregularities committed by local governments to build up hidden debt. The inclusion of financial institutions in the penalties issued by the ministry shows debt control will be a more comprehensive effort involving both creditors and debtors, Yang Yewei, analyst at Guosheng Securities, wrote in a note.

Out of some 1.3 trillion yuan ($172 billion) of refinancing bonds sold by provincial authorities over the past month or so, indebted regions including Guizhou, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia ranked as the top issuers, according to data compiled by GF Securities.

Global investors turned more optimistic about Chinese assets. JPMorgan’s chief Asia & China equity strategist Wendy Liu said the bank sees increasing likelihood of a technical rebound in the country’s stock market toward the end of the year, citing improvement in risk factors from geopolitics to long-term structural growth.

Franklin Templeton Investments President Jenny Johnson said it’s time to “wade back into China” as Chinese assets are trading cheaply.(and the clue that the big bois can’t handcthis shit off fast enough is this) Meantime, Citadel founder Ken Griffin said global investors have to “be watching and investing” in China to tap into innovation and growth in the region.

(Meanwhile JP Moran wants to hand off its exposure to (You) as cap 3 shows its “got 15% upside” based on historical performance)

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rare-government-support-seeks-contain-china-debt-risks

From last week

China's top regulators summon big developers for financial briefings

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-s-top-regulators-summon-big-developers-for-financial-briefings

>>19906920

ProTip: no one cares they are funny and whimsical so take the very large stick out of your ass and put those posts of whinging into something productive

Fuckin’ triggered pussy

only you spend your entire time

>>19907031

>anathema== to the anon ethos.

And you are the arbiter of that?

Nigga paleeeez

Kek