https://www.brunswickgroup.com/media/11259/geopolitical_eightelections2024_091523_final.pdf
Eight Key Elections
to Watch in 2024
In 2024, countries making up over 50% of global
GDP will undergo decisive elections. The results will
both reflect and impact an increasingly precarious
geopolitical and economic environment. The votes
take place against a backdrop of heightened bloc
rivalry, driven by competition between China and
the West, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and increased
posturing by non-aligned countries.
These have accelerated trends like “derisking” and
“friendshoring” while complicating international
cooperation on global issues like climate change and
pandemic management. This lack of geopolitical
coordination on international economic policy cushioning
has also heightened the risk of any prospective shock
to the precarious economic environment, especially in
Global South countries with preexisting fiscal pressures.
We have highlighted for you below eight key elections to
watch, the current state of play in these races, and the
key factors to monitor in the run-up to the votes. The
outcome of Taiwan's vote at the start of the year could
set the tone for cross-strait and US-China relations for
the following year, amplifying the role of China in the US'
own November election. Elections in the EU and UK will
meanwhile influence how Europe positions itself
relative to this great-power competition, while also
providing indications on the longevity of support to
Ukraine. If Russia's elections offer limited indication of
the government's popularity, a low turnout could add
pressure on the Kremlin and its stalling invasion of
Ukraine. The US elections are likely to impact global
economics, politics and geopolitics.
Brunswick is available to support you through these
elections, working with our offices on the ground all
over the world to help you manage possible operational,
reputational or regulatory risks emanating from the
results. Further information is available at the end
of the document.