MktFag: The Santa Claus rally financial PsyOp and this years pros and cons-analysis/commentary
()= additional comments-and pay attention cuz if you read theseyou’d have known Novembers rally was a certainty…in early Oct
(Sometimes they do it into YE sometimes not but you need to know it’s a PsyOp and it all depends on how the whales are positioned as to the likelihood of it occurring because it ALWAYS gets talked about but doesn’t always habben. As already mentioned the Corporate Share Buyback window closes on December 8th so it will not have the record levels of that-and this is a qrtly habbening….it just had an 11% move up so anyone who thinks it’ll just keep going up at that rate needs to just send me yer money cuz you don’t belong in ANY market let alone these)
Is a stock market correction coming before the Santa Claus rally at the end of the year?(keep in mind it doesn’t always habben- see 2018 into 19 also 08-09 the 2 best examples of not and it was Sky’d the very FIRST trading day of ‘19)
It is a fascinating turn in sentiment, given that investors were convinced of the bear market’s return just a month ago. Now, investors are “making their list and checking it twice.” Given the 10% advance over the past month, it isn’t surprising, as hope rises that the Fed will return to more accommodative policies next year. Earnings remain very “nice,” and the market views the economic risks as primarily priced in. There are indeed “naughty” economic indicators, but the market seems convinced it will all be transient. Furthermore, companies seem to be able to pass costs along to consumers, at least for now. The hopes are high that profit margins will remain strong and earnings will eventually catch up to valuations.(total hopium). Investors’ “wish lists” are hung by the chimney with care, hopeful the “Santa Claus rally” will soon be there. While they remain “snug in their beds, the historical data dances in the heads.” Cap 2 is from EquityClock.com shows the annual S&P 500 index “seasonality.” (and gee it dumps just as said Corporate Buybacks are suspended-imagine that and not mentioned just the mutual fund withdrawals)
(Some of following is true and does occur because people take out of MMF for YE reasons and those values drop but moar to this)
However, notice that dip at the beginning of December. Mutual Fund Distributions Come First
Before “Santa Claus” makes his anticipated visit to “Broad and Wall,” mutual funds must distribute their capital gain, dividends, and interest income for the year. These distributions start in late November, but a large number of distributions occur in the first two weeks of December. Again, notice that dip in the seasonality chart above. However, you will receive additional fund shares or a cash deposit in a day or so. That difference depends on how you have elected to take your distributions. Your portfolio value will decline by the distribution amount on that date. But your value will return to normal when that distribution is received and credited.
There is no need to panic….(see below..right but don’t sit on yer butt watching account go down as it could and does get impacted by dropping markets in general so you might not “get it all back”). As shown, the volume has declined during the advance from the summer stock market correction. Furthermore, the market is now overbought and deviated from the 50-DMA. The problem is that “for every seller, there must be a buyer.” Buyers appear closer to the 50-DMA when mutual funds start making distributions. I am not saying the market will correct to that level. It is where the most volume occurred previously and is the most likely support area.
As the Wall Street axiom goes: “Sellers live higher. Buyers live lower.”(and the AI/HFT bots know this plus all the technical levels where you put stop losses at-a common one is Fibonacci retracement-so they set up programs via limit orders to scoop up the shares that your stop loss just sold and then move it up from there)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-market-correction-coming-santa-claus-rally
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
If you listen to Fin MSM and believe what they say then good luck-they are in total denialhowever don’t NOT know what they are saying because if you do exactly the opposite of what all these “experts” say you’ll find you are a lot moar successful.
The IPO market sucked last year (way less fees for the ded banks) so they are setting it up by painting a rosey picture and going parabolic but for the wrong reasons-doesn’t mean you can’t make some money off it when the Fed cuts rates AND restarts QE-by April they won’t have a choice. Fed sets prime so they can drop Prime but there will be a bifurcation between mortgage rates and Prime so fixing that requires MASSIVE QE (again)
>>19985157 pb Fed Bank Bailout Program Borrowing Surged In November