TyB
>>20055706 pb
PF: Ukraine AF UNKN1111 A330Zelenskylanded at JBA after a fuel stop at Curaçao from its Buenos Aires departure last night
It landed about 3h ago-this same AC was here last week (at JBA) please see link above as additional links contained on the Buenos Aires depart last night
Zelensky To Begin Working Visit To United States On Dec 11
https://menafn.com/1107567291/Zelensky-To-Begin-Working-Visit-To-United-States-On-Dec-11
This is how you know it’s over for this whole narrative as last years “secret trip” for his CONgressinal address was done with a high level US State Dept AC (and it was tracked as it habbened in here) but this time he makes 2 public appearances in Brasília and Buenos Aires (at Milei’s swearing in ceremony)
Last weeks flight delivered money or ? and was facilitated by Lloyd Austin’s “secret trip to Kiev” followed by Swiss President visit both “in Kiev”….NOT
On last years visit with US AC (and tail #01-0040 is visible in background of his arrival picture in story below) but the “official story”. As the train narrative is complete bullshit and only became prevalent AFTER it was proven Pelosi only ever went to Rzsesow Airport for a total of 3h-Austin and Blinken (and used 2 C17s that were also caught after departing JBA) began the train narrative with trip prior to Pelosi’s visit but they fugged up by not using it for her trip cuz they thought no one was paying attention. Biden “secret trip” earlier this year used the same train narrative however his plane was only ever at Rzsesow Airport for about 3h as well-all green screened with the ‘blast of air horns’ announcing his public appearance “in Kiev” you may remember that
Try not to laugh if you read this
From last years visit
How did President Zelensky get to Washington?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64065527
planeFag CONUS activity
SAM401 C32A WN from JBA
SPAR28 Indo-PAC G5 west from JBA
SPAR627 Learjet 35 headed to JBA from Scott AFB
NAOS64 E6B Mercury out from PAC River on ascent heading S/SW
Naos: In archaeology, a temple, as distinguished from hieron, a shrine (chapel) or sanctuary (in this latter sense not necessarily implying the presence of any edifice).
NORSE01 E3 Sentry AWACS trackin’ off North Carolina coast and outer banks from Tinker AFB
FORGE94 G5 NE from Tallahassee Intl Airport after a very quick ground stop-no moar than 10m tops and didn’t even ‘gate’
09-0015 C32A NW out from JBA but looks like a cert flight
Merry Christmas
>not a baker however someone had to start “invent”notetaking and apply it in here
o7
For The Market To Be Right, Every Member Of The FOMC Has To Be Wrong (they are with little truth in the many “speeches”)
[Very FEW examples of the FOMC ever being “right”-its proven over its entire existence with some rare exceptions-Volcker ramrodding rates hikes is most relevant example and the current decrease in Reverse Repo Facility usage that peaked in May of this year with money market funds parking $2.5T at about 5bp over Fed Funds Rates (plus the # of counterparties ales peaked around 110)-see list of links below) and also been decreasing-this is Primary Dealers and the “list”, it’s very long-the NYFED allows in on this and is now in the lower $800b level-Friday result cap 3-and falling that is what is driving Treasury purchases and in about 4 months (or less) it will become irrelevant in that arena so rates will spike-the FOMC then has to decide what to do when rates spike and imo they will begin moar QE]
Following a softish ADP jobs figure last week, the market was poised for a similarly weak print in the much more consequential non-farm payrolls report. Alas, the recent form of virtually no correlation between the two numbers held, and non-farm employment growth in November handily beat the 185,000 consensus estimate to print at 199,000. The bond market reacted in orthodox fashion. 2-year yields jumped 12.5bps and 10-year yields pumped higher by 7.6bps. Fed Funds futures show the centre of gravity for market-implied probability of rate cuts have been pushed a little further out the yield curve into 2024, but there are still 4.5 cuts priced in before Christmas. So, the huge disparity between market pricing and the Fed dot plot continues. [dot plot, like the Phillips curve is complete garbage] The dot plot median for 2024 is 5.125%, and the lowest value is 4.375%, while the futures market is suggesting that Fed Funds will finish the year just a touch above 4%. This suggests that every member of the FOMC would have to be wrong (or fibbing) about the likely future path of their policy rate decisions for the market to have it right.
Jerome Powell and other Fed speakers who have been warning traders not to get too carried away with bets on looser policy will be pleased to see some tentative crabwalking back towards the higher for longer meme. You can only huff and puff about hawkish policy stances for so long before you have to actually deliver, or risk losing your credibility. Equity markets were sufficiently unfazed by a firmer than expected labor market to see the Dow Jones rise by 0.36% and the more duration sensitive NASDAQ up by 0.45%. Mr Market says “I do not believe you!” to the Fed. [CME FEDwatch has March creeping up w/ 25 bp cut-this is “Mr. Market” speaking as well as the 2/10 Treasury issues and both of those are wut the FOMC “listens” to-this doesn’t mean Mr Market is correct but it’s what they want]
This week brings the December FOMC meeting (previewed here by Philip Marey), so we will get an updated picture of how determined the Fed is to stick to the higher for longer meme. No-one will be sweating on this meeting more than the commercial real estate sector and the regional banks who loaded up their balance sheets with CRE risk in the go-go years of ever lower policy rates (and money printing).Unrealized losses on held to maturity bond portfolios might be looking a little better since 10-year yields encountered resistance at 5% and subsequently fell by ~80bps, but this might be splitting hairs between disaster and calamity.The soft-landing becomes important in this context as office fund managers sweat on the double-whammy of refinancing risk and vacancy rates driven higher by the work from home trend that just won’t die. Assets bought off funny-money cap rates don’t make much sense in a normalized free market where supply and demand of credit is determined by free exchange between willing borrowers and lenders. Mispricing is just one negative legacy of interventionist easy money policies. As Walter Bagehot famously put it: “John Bull (or Uncle Sam) can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2% (or 0.25%)”.
Obviously, there are financial stability risks here, and the Fed already demonstrated a willingness to ride to the rescue with new liquidity when similar risks were exposed earlier in 2023. This is the underlying tension between r (the neutral rate of interest) and r* (the financial stability rate of interest). The Fed is talking about the former, the market is pricing for the latter. Who can blame them if CRE managers are heading towards the holidays saying “for lease Navidad” as all of the white-collar workers telecommute from their living room.
Moar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-be-right-every-member-fomc-has-be-wrong
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties
>Fridays RRP result and….
Ugly, Tailing 3Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand Since June 2022
The week's accelerated auction schedule kicked off at 11:30am this morning with a 3Y auction (the 10Y benchmark auction will follow at 1pm and the 30Y is on deck tomorrow) which was below mediocre at best.
Pricing at a high yield of 4.49%, the auction saw a big drop from last month's 4.701% - and was the lowest since August - if not as low as the market had expected, with the When Issued trading 4.473% pre-sale, resulting in a 1.7bps tail, tied for the biggest tail since the record 4bps tail in February. was all downhill from there, with the bid to cover tumbling to 2.416 from 2.668, far below the 2.743 recent average and the lowest, again, since that infamously ugly Feb 2023 auction.
Then, moving to the internals, we go from bad to worse as buyside demand also collapsed and Indirects (i.e. foreign accounts) took down just 52.1%, a sharp drop from 64.6% last month (and the 63.9% six-auction average), and the lowest since June 2022; and with Directs awarded 21.7%, Dealers were left with a whopping 26.2%, a huge jump from last month's 16.3% and the six-auction average of 16.1%. Overall, this was a very ugly auction and one which has pushed 10Y yields to session highs of 4.28%, up almost 20bps from the Thursday low of 4.10%, indicating that the market finally realized that it had eased financial conditions far too much ahead of the Wednesday Fed meeting.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ugly-tailing-3y-auction-sees-lowest-foreign-demand-june-2022
It’s not a coincidence that the Big 7 (NAS) stonks are not doing well today as Corporate Share Buybacks ended for Qrtly earnings lockouts and don’t return until January 19th or right around then
>anons
No you suspect with one or 2 others
Milei is not a “white hat”
Nothing will change for the people of Argentina
You don’t go visit the bankers and have meetings on their turf if you are kicking the out
Id love to be proven wrong however the new President of Guatemala (and this is not an endorsement of them) held an anti-corruption rally recently and wouldn’t you know it a SPAR Special Priority Air Resource AC was seen heading to Guatemala City shortly after-cap 2
That is what would be habbening to Milei if he was a “white hat” we’d be going there for a “chat”
C102 US Coast Guard G5 departed LAX north
>>20054089, >>20054153 pb
Potato in AF1 747 departed Los Angeles Intl to JBA
>it was switched to empty call sign after making the turn to the east after depart cap 3
Polish AF PLF220 departed Warsaw west
This is high level Polish AF and used by both President and PM in past
*120
Figured out who that was on SPAR19 but doesn’t change opinion on Milei nor the occupants of SPAR flight having a chat w/new Guatemala leader
Durbin Joins Kaine In Bicameral Congressional Delegation Visits To Guatemala And Honduras To Discuss Democracy, Stability, Migration, Economic Growth, And Security
https://www.durbin.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/durbin-joins-kaine-in-bicameral-congressional-delegation-visits-to-guatemala-and-honduras-to-discuss-democracy-stability-migration-economic-growth-and-security
Still right even with D instead of S
They should hand out “I got vaccinated” stickers too