Australia #33 >>20066837
Congress gives US the ammunition to torpedo AUKUS deal
BEN PACKHAM - DECEMBER 13, 2023
A future US president will have to certify that the transfer of nuclear submarines to Australia will not undermine America’s military capabilities or foreign policy, under draft legislation that offers multiple get-out clauses for any coming administrations to scupper the AUKUS agreement.
The legislation agreed by congress’ Senate and House armed services committees – which is due to pass in coming days – would make the sale of three Virginia-class submarines to Australia contingent on guarantees provided by the president “not later than 290 days” before the transfer.
The provision would require the president of the day to certify that the transfer of the submarines “will not degrade the United States undersea capabilities” and is “consistent with US foreign policy and national security interests”. The sale would also be conditional on the US “making sufficient submarine production and maintenance investments” to meet its own needs, and on Australia having the capability to operate the vessels.
The wording comes despite the Albanese government’s assurances that Australia would have sovereign control over the US-supplied boats, and fears among AUKUS critics that the deal could draw the nation into a future US war with China over Taiwan.
Under the terms of the AUKUS pact, Australia is due to receive the first of three to five AUKUS submarines from 2032. But there have been bipartisan concerns in the US that the country’s submarine manufacturing capability is lagging well behind where it would need to be to supply any nuclear-powered boats to Australia.
Greens senator David Shoebridge said the US bill’s language threw fresh doubt on the AUKUS program and the Albanese government’s claims the boats would be under Australia’s full control.
“Put simply, the US will only provide scarce Virginia-class submarines to Australia if Australia promises to use them whenever and however the US military demands,” Senator Shoebridge said.
“Essentially, to satisfy these requirements, the Australian government will be required to give the United States a blank cheque to follow it into whatever war it chooses with China.
“This is an incredibly reckless bargain for any Australian leader to agree to.”
Strategic Analysis Australia research director Marcus Hellyer said the US National Defence Authorisation Act would authorise a future president to transfer the submarines, “but it doesn’t compel them to”.
“It’s possible a future president may consider a transfer is not in the US’s interest,” Dr Hellyer said.
“The president also has to certify the transfer will not degrade the US’s undersea capabilities. That could be difficult.”
He said on the current US submarine-building schedule, there did not appear to be any capacity to have any additional submarines in service by the time the first Virginia-class boat was due to be transferred to Australia. “That means any boat transferred to Australia will result in a reduction in the US Navy’s submarine numbers,” Dr Hellyer said.
“The bottom line is we are still nearly a decade away from the transfer of the first boat, and that’s a long time in politics.”
Defence Minister Richard Marles, who recently returned from AUKUS meetings in California, argued the US had a lot to gain from the submarine partnership.
“What is clear is the value of the relationship between America and Australia, and specifically the importance of the arrangement with AUKUS and the strategic value to the United States of Australia acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine capability,” he said.
“We are hopeful and completely respectful of the processes that are playing out in the congress.
“Ultimately, it is a matter for the congress but we are very hopeful about how that is tracking.”
Democrats and Republicans agreed to the terms of the submarine transfer last week, backing changes to remove legal impediments that would have thwarted the AUKUS deal.
“For the first time since the launch of the USS Nautilus in 1958, this National Defence Authorisation Act authorises the US Navy to sell three conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines to another nation – our steadfast ally Australia,” Democrat congressman Joe Courtney said.
US submarine forces commander Vice Admiral William Houston said last month the US navy envisaged the transfer of two Virginia-class submarines from the existing US inventory from 2032, and a third directly from the production line.
A Congressional Budget Office report last month warned the boats would not be guaranteed to support the US in any conflict, noting Australia’s refusal to pledge to join the US in a war with China on Taiwan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/congress-gives-us-the-ammunition-to-torpedo-aukus-deal/news-story/b180aa551b8bd1ac321dab1e5220a80f