TyB
Japan's negative rate exit scenario muddled by Fed outlook
[perfect “excuse” just after the jaw boning they produced last week and week prior about scaling back JGB purchases-like they would ever stop as who the hell would buy anything (logically) from any issuer with a GDP vs Debt ratio of 280%-all about flow so it keeps going but one thing for certain…BoJ will never raise rates on own as the 10y JGB just dropped below 6 month low (yields) and highest value so it can be all look “good” going into that all important YE closing print and muh Yen continues it’s strength as predicted during September-cap4 and the US$ index dropped through $103-where it was sitting on the FOMC release earlier today]
With Japanese inflation and wage hikes entering a long-sought virtuous cycle, financial markets eye several time frames for the Bank of Japan's anticipated exit from its negative rate policy.
But in other advanced countries, central banks have begun considering interest rate cuts, which could complicate the BOJ's plan to tighten policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve signaled on Wednesday that it might cut rates three times next year.
Japan's central bank is determining the right time to act, as it assesses the sustainability of the virtuous cycle and the economy's ability to bear rate hikes. BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda told parliament Dec. 7[kek…Dec 7th]that managing the ultraloose monetary policy will become "more challenging" from now into next year. His statement spurred a sharp reaction in financial markets, which took Ueda's words as a hint toward an exit from the negative rate policy, perhaps this month.
The BOJ assesses the business community's mood through the quarterly Tankan survey, with the latest showing sentiment rising for the third straight quarter. The central bank also hears from companies large and small through BOJ branches nationwide. Pay raises are of a particular focus. “We expect that it will become harder to find workers. We would like to raise wages next year by at least more than this year," said a representative from a home center in the Osaka area, who echoed other respondents.
Those speculating that the negative rate policy will end this month argue that the sustainability of a virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages can be judged without waiting for the results of Japan's annual spring labor talks. But this view is very much in the minority. Virtually no market analyst thinks the BOJ will exit negative rates during the two-day policy meeting that ends Tuesday.
The main scenario involves an exit in the first half of 2024, when the results of labor talks at large companies are known. Drinks maker Suntory Holdings said recently it would lift pay by roughly 7%, joining a number of companies indicating similarly ample wage hikes prior to labor talks.
"If possible, I'd look forward to wage increases that surpass this year's," said a person inside the BOJ.
This year, employers agreed to pay raises averaging 3.58%, the largest gain in roughly three decades. Given that wages might rise by a higher margin next year, most market analysts envision the negative rate policy ending in April.
But waiting until April raises the possibility that the U.S. will lower rates before then [that wut Mr Market demanding in March according to CME FedWatch and up from 57% from this morning-cap 2]. The BOJ might be unwilling to go in the opposite direction if central banks in the U.S. and Europe place rate cuts on the table.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank-of-Japan/Japan-s-negative-rate-exit-scenario-muddled-by-Fed-outlook
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
>>20069330, >>20069352 pb Federal Reserve signals rate cuts next year #MktFag
This certainly has to be on a state by state basis as CA is the Wild West with many corrupt LEOs/entire depts etc
Stay away from all as not all are bad but not taking that risk finding out who is/isn’t
5:5
That fish (in this state) was never fresh imo but I hear you as many CA residents brought those ideals and expectations to places that did not have it before the exodus east
No blame placed on the people and communities where they moved to at all-completely understand it. It’ll habben to me when we leave already know it
45in GJE21 G5 departed Iowa City Muni Airport after rally and back to PBI
That where it came from earlier
>>20070388 lb
SAM401 C32A continues east from Maui depart
It’s either it’s catalog # (album) or zip code where produced-heard both as what it means
10th row Greek Theater Berkeley
Great show have pics in box somewhere
Trips confirm