Not Gonna 'Oppen.

Futures inch up as investors pin hopes on Fed rate cuts

Dec 19th, 05:12:16

(PiQSuite.Com) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Tuesday, building on strong gains in recent weeks as investors continued to bet on a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve next year.

The benchmark S&P 500 trades just 1.2% shy of its all-time closing high as traders price in an aggressive timetable for interest rate cuts next year after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the historic tightening of monetary policy is likely over.

Despite attempts by policymakers to temper the optimism since, traders have priced in a 67% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March, as per the CMEGroup's FedWatch tool, and cuts of 143 bps by December 2024. [FEDWATCH]

https://PiQSuite.com/reuters/futures-inch-up-as-investors-pin-hopes-on-fed-rate-cuts

Japan government maintains overall assessment of the economy in December

Dec 19th, 03:25:01

The overall economic assessment still reads as "recovering moderately although some areas stalled recently" but the government did note that "business sentiment is improving". Adding that the "business mood and corporate profits are also improving but these have not spilled over to domestic demand".

In any case, it's now all about the spring wage negotiations in March and April for Japan. That's the key focus as we look towards next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-government-maintains-overall-assessment-of-the-economy-in-december-20231219/

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Good morning. Apple is looking at workarounds for its smartwatches should a Christmas day sales ban stand in the US, dealmakers wrap up the slowest year in a decade and the Bank of Japan keeps traders guessing. Here’s what people are talking about. — Sofia Horta e Costa

What would it take to bring investors back to China’s once-booming markets next year? How will China's growth impact the global economy and commodity prices? Share your views in the latest MLIV Pulse survey.

Apple’s rescue mission

Apple is just days away from a US ban of its smartwatches that will take effect on Christmas day, barring any last-minute veto by the White House. It’s a $17 billion business that’s one of the company’s biggest moneymakers in its home market. Now its engineers are racing to make changes to algorithms on the device that measure a user’s blood oxygen level — a feature that Masimo has argued infringes its patents. But getting the new technology to market will take time: Apple’s internal software testing process is lengthy and the company needs to ensure that any changes won’t break other smartwatch features. The adjustments also may need additional testing given their medical purpose. Apple’s shares, which dropped as much as 1.6% on the news on Monday before paring the losses, are little changed in pre-market trading as I type. Separately, the chairman of Apple’s main chipmaking partner TSMC will retire in 2024.

M&A winter

Investment bankers are coming to the end of their worst year for mergers and acquisitions in a decade. The value of deals globally is set to miss the $3 trillion mark for the first time since 2013, with JPMorgan’s co-head of M&A for North America likening current conditions to those experienced during the dot-com crash. A lack of activity by private equity firms has been one of the major drags on deal-flow: buyout firms spent 36% less on acquisitions this year versus 2022. While that’s partly due to struggles in securing debt financing for big deals, it also comes down to price. Buyers and sellers can’t seem to come to an agreement even when buyout firms offer significant premiums. In several cases, the target’s directors can’t decide whether minority shareholders are getting a good deal. Speaking of hefty price tags, Japan’s Nippon Steel is defending the 142% premium it’s paying for United States Steel.

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UBS investor eyes Morgan Stanley

Stockholm-based Cevian Capital is making a €1.2 billion bet on UBS, saying it’s confident the bank can successfully integrate Credit Suisse and double its share price over the next two to three years. “We think UBS should at least be valued on a par with Morgan Stanley,” Cevian co-founder Lars Förberg told Bloomberg Television earlier today after his firm announced it has built up a stake of about 1.3% in the Swiss bank. UBS’s valuation has trailed that of Wall Street’s titans, and Chairman Colm Kelleher has made little secret that he thinks it should be higher—as high, perhaps, as that of Morgan Stanley, where the Irishman spent most of his career. But rivals like Morgan Stanley have much bigger client networks and bigger investment banks to craft whizzy financial products for them, and US banks have historically commanded a valuation premium over their European counterparts. UBS shares rose as much as 2.7% earlier.

Japan’s negative rates

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda decided to keep interest rates in negative territory — where the policy rate has been since 2016. Ueda appeared determined to keep his options open at a press briefing: he said there was little data for his team to assess before they next meet to decide on rates in January, but he didn’t rule out a hike entirely either. He also said it was too early to give specific details on any exit plans. The yen extended its decline in choppy trading as Ueda spoke, dropping more than 1% against the dollar. The Japanese currency had turned into one of the world’s favorite macro trades in recent weeks after a comment from Ueda and one of his deputies sparked speculation of an exit from sub-zero rates as early as this month. The view subsided after people familiar with the matter told my colleagues in Tokyo that the central bank was in no rush — though bets this will happen in 2024 are still very much on.

Coming up…

We’re due data on US housing starts and permit issuance in November, with economists expecting a slight deterioration. There are three central bank speakers on the cards today: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is set to speak on the US economy, the outlook for business, and the Fed's role at a fireside chat at the Harvard Business School Club of Atlanta Alumni Leadership Lunch. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to appear on Yahoo Finance, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will be interviewed by Fox News.

What we’ve been reading

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

Hamas’s makeshift drones are outmaneuvering Israel’s military.

Bezos’s Blue Origin is set to fly to space after a 15-month grounding.

Watch a video of a volcanic eruption in Iceland.

European officials begin to assess: what if Putin wins in Ukraine?

NYC’s 10 priciest home sales show the market is doing ‘pretty darn well.’

One brand of Japanese single-malt whiskies is hiking prices by 62%.

Black chefs around London celebrate heritages in their holiday menus.

Tell us what you want to see in the Five Things newsletter! Please take our quick survey here.

And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning

With rates having come down substantially over the past month and a half, a big question is what it will it mean for housing. According to Freddie Mac, a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now under 7%.

Of course a mortgage in the 6s would have seemed extremely high even a year ago, but in the current environment it seems plausible that some would-be homebuyers might dip their toe in the water.

Yesterday we got the latest reading of the NAHB sentiment index and it showed that for the first time in 5 months, homebuilder sentiment ticked up (though it remains at extremely depressed levels).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-12-19/stock-markets-today-apple-watch-ubs-morgan-stanley-bank-of-japan

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>>20098756

Go get some help for that stutter.

Japanese yen tumbles as BOJ sticks with ultra-loose policy

Dec 18th, 19:27:16

By Rae Wee and Alun John

SINGAPORE/LONDON (PiQSuite.Com) -The yen tumbled on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, as expected, and more surprisingly did not signal a change was approaching, while the dollar drifted at the low end of its recent range.

The dollar jumped 1.3% on the yen, and the euro a touch more, each set for its biggest daily gain since end October, the BOJ's last meeting when it also disappointed markets which had been expecting a hint policy was changing.

The greenback reached 144.95 yen, and the common currency 158.56.

While the outcome was within market expectations, investors were on the lookout* for signs on whether the dovish central bank might signal an eventual move away from negative interest rates.

"Everyone is trying to jump on the last trade of the year," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

"The message from the BOJ today is that they are still very cautious and there is no strong indication that they are getting close to raising rates."

https://PiQSuite.com/reuters/japanese-yen-tumbles-as-boj-sticks-with-ultra-loose-policy

*Sold the IDEA that a a "CHANGE WAS COMING", while prop desks took the other side.

>>20098776

Multi IP, PLUS the Hop.

>>20098789

Celine Dion 'no longer has control of her muscles' due to rare illness, her sister says

Celine Dion revealed a year ago she had the rare neurological disorder stiff-person syndrome. Now her sister has given an update on her condition.

https://news.sky.com/story/celine-dion-no-longer-has-control-of-her-muscles-due-to-rare-illness-her-sister-says-13033955?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

US Briefing - Tuesday 19.12

HEADLINES

BoJ Stands Pat Amid Expectations For Policy Normalisation

Fed's Daly: Cuts May Be Needed Next Year To Prevent Overtightening

ECB's Villeroy: ECB Should Cut Rates In 2024 After PlateauECB’s Simkus: Market’s Rate-Cut Bets Are Too Optimistic

Germany To Trim Federal Debt Sales To About €440Bln In 2024French Inflation To Slow To 1.8% In 2025, Central Bank Says

EU And US Pause Steel Tariff War Until After ElectionsSwiss Watchdog Seeks More Powers After Credit Suisse Collapse

RBA Considered Interest-Rate Hike, Saw Pause Case as Stronger

Yields Fall As Traders Continue To Assess Prospects Of Fed Rate CutsJapanese Yen Tumbles As BoJ Sticks With Ultra-Loose Policy

Oil Steadies As U.S. Leads Push To Safeguard Red Sea Vessels

Crypto Asset Manager 7RCC Applies To Offer Bitcoin ETFUS Stock Futures Are Flat Tuesday As Market Rally Pauses

Accenture Forecasts Second-Quarter Revenue Below Estimates

Lufthansa Group Agrees On 120 Aircraft Purchasing Options

COMMENTARY

BoJ Keeps Hike Bulls In Dark As Yen Rally Falters On Rate Hold

The Bank of Japan offered little for rate-hike bulls as it stuck with the world’s last negative interest rate and kept guidance unchanged on future policy in a decision that pared some of the yen’s recent gains.

The central bank left its short-term rate at -0.1% and maintained its yield curve control parameters in a unanimous decision at the end of a two-day gathering Tuesday, according to a statement. Forward guidance gave no specific references hinting at the prospects for a rate increase.

(Continue Reading - Bloomberg)

Fed Official Says Rate Cuts Could Be Needed Next Year To Prevent Overtightening

A Federal Reserve official said it is appropriate for the central bank to begin looking ahead to lowering interest rates in 2024 because of how inflation has improved this year.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said her outlook for interest rates and inflation was “very close” to the median of projections from 19 Fed officials last week. Most of them penciled in at least three rate cuts next year amid a faster decline in inflation than they anticipated.

(Continue Reading - WallStreet Journal)

BofA Poll Shows Rate Cut Expectations Fueling Rush Into Stocks

Investors are the most optimistic since the beginning of 2022 as expectations of policy easing by the Federal Reserve are fueling a rush into stocks, according to a Bank of America Corp. survey.

The sentiment of global fund managers surveyed in December was the most upbeat since January 2022 on a Goldilocks environment — a steady economy that is not running too hot or too cold — as the case for next year, a team of strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in Tuesday note.

https://www.livesquawk.com/report/afternoon_3243

>>20098818

Always thought it was AdrenoChrome withdrawal, but "Stiff" sounds genetic, and her "illness" pre-dates "Jab", as dis anon recalls, but jab might've turbo'd it- N not a squeaky wheel here.

>>20098829

Jes stale n musty.