Blain’s Morning Porridge Special – December 20th 2023: Big Changes to the Morning Porridge in 2024 – New Resolutions and New Business

“I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by.”

A Morning Porridge Special: Realisations, Resolutions, and Goals for 2024. It’s a New World.

We are into the last few days of the 2023 markets. I’m planning to write comments Thursday/Friday, but that rather depends on whether a tickly throat develops into the full-scale flu that’s hitting the UK. (She-Who-is-Mrs-Blain has it.) To fight it off I went for a swim in the River – Cold. Very cold. Kill or cure. I fear the former.

After this week The Porridge will return in January. I have little expectation for major market moves ahead of the new year. It’s clear most investment desks have closed-up ahead of the holidays to new concepts and ideas for 2024 – they are putting 2023 out the way first. Yet, market momentum looks set to push US stocks to hit record highs! What is fuelling such blind optimism? Who knows…

For markets, there is still lots to lose sleep over:

There will be supply chain and energy price implications from the Bad el-Mendeb Red Sea choke point as Western Navies seek to protect the sea lanes from $10,000 Houthi drone attacks with $5mm surface air missiles – which already are in short-supply. Asymmetric warfare is not one-sided when it comes to the economics…

The looming debt-wreck of the Issa Brother’s Asda/petrol forecourt UK empire will be a shocker – and raise questions like: Who else? What? Seriously? Did no one else foresee how the sudden rise of two chancers fuelled on cheap debt and dubious intra-company leverage might just go wrong when rates rise?

I’m wondering just how deep the consumer downturn is going to be – and how badly it will smash the Buy-Now-Pay-Later model.

Plus all the big issues; like central banks’ Hike, Hold, Pass or Fold decisions, energy prices, politics and events, events dear boy…

The New Year will not be dull.

https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/big-changes-to-the-morning-porridge-in-2024-new-resolutions-and-new-business/

Morning Call Script - 20 Dec 2023

Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar

What’s Moved Overnight

PBoC left the Loan Prime 1Y and 5Y Rates unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively

USD seasonals kicked in yesterday with AUD and NZD leading the charge, both +1.65% on the week.

ATH watch across US Indices despite the Apple patent news (Axios) and FedEx revenue cut on weak demand (FT). SPX drift towards 4800 has led to a positive APAC session ex China (Nikkei +1.6%, CSI 300 down 70bps to 3311).

Elsewhere, global Central Bankers are still working, no extended festive break… Orr sees no room to cut (yet), Bostic is in no urgency, Barkin sees solid progress on inflation, Goolsbee is confused by the market's reaction, everyone keeps seconding guessing when Powell will cut (according to Nick T from WSJ) and of course BoJ are still pumping liquidity into the global system (Ueda didn't even give a hint of exit timing)

Bloomberg - RBNZ Assessing GDP Data, No Opinion Yet on Rates, Governor Adrian Orr Says

Bloomberg - Fed’s Raphael Bostic Doesn’t See Urgency to Cut Interest Rates - Bloomberg

Reuters - Fed's Barkin: Central bank 'nicely positioned' amid inflation retreat

Reuters - Goolsbee 'confused' by market reaction to Fed chief's rate-cut remarks

WSJ - Powell’s Pivot Sows Confusion Over When and How Fast Fed Will Cut - WSJ

Reuters - BOJ keeps ultra-loose policy, offers few hints on exit timing

https://harkster.substack.com/p/morning-call-script-20-dec-2023

No, It's a fekking spread trade. Buy Bunds and sell Treasuries, and you need less margin becaused it's "hedged".

Are Foreign Holders Finally Bailing Out of the Incredibly Ballooning US National Debt?

by Wolf Richter • Dec 20, 2023

China and Brazil shed large portions of their holdings, but the top financial centers loaded up.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The total amount of Treasury securities outstanding has reached $33.89 trillion and is going to hit $34 trillion shortly. Everyone of these securities must be sold to someone, and foreign holders play a huge but declining role:

Foreign holders in aggregate have kept their holdings of US Treasury securities roughly stable for the past two years. In October, their holdings dipped to $7.56 trillion, up about 6% from a year ago, but the same as in June 2021, according to TIC data from the Treasury Department released Tuesday afternoon (red line in the chart below)

The top six financial centers (London, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Ireland) decreased their holdings to $2.22 trillion, down from the record in August (blue line):

Japan, #1 single US creditor, increased its holdings in October to $1.10 trillion (green), but that’s down from the $1.3 trillion range in 2021.

China and Hong Kong combined further reduced their holdings to $969 billion (purple).

Foreign holders have not kept up buying the the incredibly ballooning US government debt, and as a result, the share of their holdings has plunged to a share of 22.4%, from the range of around 33% in 2015. In other words, the US debt financing has become less dependent on foreign holders:

The six largest financial centers – the UK (actually the City of London), Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, and Ireland – reduced their holdings a little in October, after the record in August, to $2.22 trillion

These countries specialize in handling and often obscuring the financial holdings of global companies, individuals, and governments. Ireland is a favorite for US companies to store their profits:

UK: $693 billion

Luxembourg: $345 billion

Cayman Islands: $324 billion

Ireland: $299 billion

Belgium (home of Euroclear): $285 billion

Switzerland: $276 billion.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/20/are-foreign-holders-finally-bailing-out-of-the-incredibly-ballooning-us-national-debt/

>>20103970

Global Crossing is a Klown Skool Op.

Independent Polish Media has been removed. "You Will Comply."

David Engels

@DavidEngels12

🇵🇱 TVP building occupied by police, the administration fired, all transmissions and broadcastings cut by brute force. This is how media plurality and the reign of law look like under the new government. Poland is indeed back in EU-rope.

https://twitter.com/DavidEngels12/status/1737449396067840393

Fed "doublespeak is puzzling investors"? You mean that JPow may not have "said" what The Street tole me he sed? Naaahhhh..

DealBook

@dealbook

In today’s newsletter:

@laurenshirsch

on Washington’s national security worries about the U.S. Steel deal;

@bernhardwarner

on how the Fed’s doublespeak is puzzling investors; the scooter company Bird goes bankrupt; an “insane” FTX trade; and more

https://twitter.com/dealbook/status/1737455721040478709

>>20104002

Ooooh, ooooh, I know! I know!

"What is the Club of Rome?", Alex!

>>20104010

He be livin the "Monster" lifestyle!

THIS is the big "Sacred Cow" that JPow be huntin'…..

PiQ

@PiQSuite

·

1m

⚠️ GLOBAL REGULATORS MAKE TACKLING NON-BANK LEVERAGE A PRIORITY FOR 2024

Tackling hidden leverage across the multi-trillion dollar "shadow banking" sector is next year's priority, global financial regulators said on Wednesday, but the challenge of accessing data could hamper the process.

The G20's Financial Stability Board (FSB) and IOSCO, a global grouping of securities markets regulators, on Wednesday issued tougher liquidity management guidance for asset managers of open-ended investment funds, adding to existing guidance for money market funds, which FSB and IOSCO members commit to applying.

Both types of funds are part of the $218 trillion non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector, which also includes hedge funds, property funds and insurance companies. This now makes up almost half of all global financial assets, and is also dubbed "shadow banking" given its role in the economy…..

⚠️ GLOBAL REGULATORS MAKE TACKLING NON-BANK LEVERAGE A PRIORITY FOR 2024

Full Story → https://PiQSuite.com/reuters/globalrs/global-regulators-make-tackling-non-bank-leverage-a-priority-for-2024

>>20104051

SP 7 vs the SP 493

Kobiessa Letter did an AWESOME chart of that overleveraged trade. Jess insane the leverage thrown into it.

Three phases of a bubble:

1. FAANG morphs into Mag 7. Leveraged up by early entrants.

1. Mature entrants leverage up to get in.

1. Late entrants Leverage up to get in, AND Leverage up even MOAR to short anything else against the Mag 7 so as to keep the akschewal cash involved next to nothing because "Hedged"*

*The "No Money Down" part of The Street" and the realz Bubble Pumpers. Always late, and ALWAYS blows Up Real Good.

They'll imprison them all, the Polish Magas.

Former Polish interior minister sentenced to 2 years in prison -PAP

Dec 20th, 07:18:01

WARSAW (PiQSuite.Com) - Former Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski and his deputy from the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party were sentenced to two years in prison on Wednesday for abuse of power in previous posts, PAP news agency reported.

In 2015, weeks after PiS came to power, President Andrzej Duda issued a pardon to Kaminski who had been found guilty of abuse of power while serving as head of the anti-corruption agency. The pardon allowed him to become a minister.

Lawyers questioned whether Duda could have pardoned Kaminski before a court issued a final ruling in his case, and opposition politicians have said his decision was political.

https://PiQSuite.com/reuters/former-polish-interior-minister-sentenced-to-2-years-in-prison-pap

LiveSquawk

@LiveSquawk

US-Led Coalition To Create Safe Corridor In Red Sea As Ship Diversions Mount - FT

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1737475831771930906

Commies gotta Commie….

The Flandolorian 🐈

@SheriFlanders

Surprise, surprise, they’ve jumped from anti-Semitism to anti-Blackness. A Black woman punched in the face and reports of the N-word being used.

This isn’t the last time these “protesters” will harm Black women, mark my words.

But tell me again how hate helps Palestinians?

https://twitter.com/SheriFlanders/status/1737332673863905509