OPINION
GUEST ESSAY by Norm Eisen
A Trump Conviction Could Cost Him Enough Voters to Tip the Election
http://archive.today/2023.12.26-171927/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/opinion/trump-polling-conviction.html
National polls also offer accounts of potential unease. In a Yahoo News poll from July, 62 percent of respondents say that if Mr. Trump is convicted, he should not serve as president again. A December Reuters-Ipsos national poll produced similar results, with 59 percent of voters overall and 31 percent of Republicans saying that they would not vote for him if he were convicted.
New data from our work with the Research Collaborative confirm the repercussions of a possible conviction on voters. These questions did not ask directly how a conviction would affect people’s votes, but they still support movement in the same direction. This survey, conducted in August and repeated in September (and then repeated a second time in September by different pollsters), asked how voters felt about prison time in the event that Mr. Trump is convicted. At least two-thirds (including half of Republicans) favored significant prison time for Mr. Trump.
Why do the polls register a sharp decline for Mr. Trump if he is convicted? Our analysis — including focus groups we have conducted and viewed — shows that Americans care about our freedoms, especially the freedom to cast our votes, have them counted and ensure that the will of the voters prevails. They are leery of entrusting the Oval Office to someone who abused his power by engaging in a criminal conspiracy to deny or take away those freedoms.
We first saw this connection emerge in our testing about the Jan. 6 hearings; criminality moves voters significantly against Mr. Trump and MAGA Republicans.
But voters also understand that crime must be proven. They recognize that in our legal system there is a difference between allegations and proof and between an individual who is merely accused and one who is found guilty by a jury of his peers. Because so many Americans are familiar with and have served in the jury system, it still holds sway as a system with integrity.
The criminal cases are also unfolding within a wider context of other legal challenges against Mr. Trump, and they may amplify the effect. That includes several state cases that seek to disqualify him under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Colorado’s top court has already ruled that he is disqualified, though the case is now likely being appealed to the Supreme Court. This constellation of developments — also encompassing the New York civil fraud trial — offer a negative lens through which Americans may view Mr. Trump.
Again, this is all hypothetical, but the polls give us sufficient data to conclude that felony criminal convictions, especially for attacking democracy, will foreground the threat that Mr. Trump poses to our nation and influence voters in an election-defining way.
[DC needs the Felony conviction in DC, regardless if it is overturned, their focus groups show if he is convicted in DC with a rigged jury he won't win]
evening
#RepubliansForADay
IOW: Democrats will sneak into Iowa causes and blow up the Trump vote to diminish the RED WAVE.
People need to wake the hell up.
They are showing their cards for 2024.
Wow, just read the damn article people
Understand the mindset of this guy.
Realize what the strategy is.
I didn't say I agreed with it.
I'm bringing it to the forefront because people need to know who this guy is and what he is orchestrating.
This article will be quoted somewhere in the near future - probably Smith will pull it in - in some footnote.