Revived North Korean Port Aids Russia’s War Effort in Ukraine
By Jon Herskovitz (Bloomberg) — December 26, 2023
A dormant North Korean port near the border with Russia has sprung back to life, fueling what experts say is a burgeoning trade in arms destined for the frontlines in Ukraine that is simultaneously bolstering the anemic economy managed by Kim Jong Un.
Satellite imagery of the Najin port taken from October to December shows a steady stream of ships at the facility, hundreds of shipping containers being loaded and unloaded, and rail cars ready to transport goods.
The activity appears to have picked up since early October, when the US accused North Korea of sending munitions to Russia. The White House provided imagery it said showed weapons later being delivered thousands of miles away to a depot in the Russian town of Tikhoretsk for use in Ukraine.
The flow of munitions that the US and South Korea say have included hundreds of thousands of artillery shells could grow far greater in importance as divisions in the US Congress and European Union over military aid threaten Kyiv’s ability to repel Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
“Pyongyang’s decision to deliver munitions at scale once again underscores the grave threat that North Korea poses to international security, this time feeding a conflagration on European soil that has already cost the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians and consumed tens of billions of dollars in Western military support,” according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a UK security think tank.
Pyongyang, which has been banned from arms sales for about 15 years, has repeatedly rejected accusations it is supplying Russia.
Analysis of the satellite data suggests otherwise. In a recent example, an image from Dec. 9 seems to show the Russian container ship Angara, sanctioned by the US, in Najin’s port unloading cargo while containers from North Korea await loading at an adjacent pier.
“Satellite imagery shows that round trips of cargo vessels between Najin, North Korea, and Dunay, Russia, have continued unabatedly despite additional US sanctions and widespread reporting on this activity in the past few months,” said Jaewoo Shin, an analyst at the Open Nuclear Network in Vienna.
Shin said that while the nature of the cargo can’t be confirmed with available imagery, the number of round trips and transferred containers suggest a significant and ongoing exchange, possibly including weapons and other military supplies.
While satellite imagery shows steady activity at Najin, the vessels docking there appear to have turned off international maritime transponders that give their location, effectively turning them into ghost ships as they make the relatively short trip between Najin and Dunay — also written as Dunai — about 180 kilometers (110 miles) away. The Central Intelligence Agency identified the port as a Soviet submarine base during the Cold War, according to a document obtained by RUSI, the UK think tank.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told lawmakers in November there had been about 10 shipments of weapons from North Korea to Russia since August, likely encompassing more than 1 million rounds of artillery. North Korea holds some of the world’s largest stores of munitions, much of it interoperable with weapons Russia has on the front lines.
“The situation on the battlefield is impacted” by those deliveries, he said. “Rather than seeing a notable change in tactics or swaths of land suddenly changing hands, it will allow Russia to keep up much higher pressure for longer on Ukrainian forces.”
An extra one million shells means about 2,700 rounds more per day Russia could fire at Ukraine, which is already having trouble procuring artillery and may face more difficulty if aid from the US isn’t secured.
“With both Kim and Putin recognizing the utility and benefits of partnership, cooperation is likely to continue between North Korea and Russia into next year,” said Soo Kim, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, who now works at US-based management consulting firm LMI.
“The give-and-take between the two countries is unlikely to be stopped so long as the international consequences — sanctions, reputational shaming — remain symbolic and largely insufficient to deter bad behavior,” she said.
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