Scenario: Trump gets his ass handed to him by Nikki Haley in Iowa
Now what?
Nikki's closing the gap on Trump very quickly. There is a high likelihood that she passes Trump within the next few weeks.
Once Haley breaks out in front, I think she will remain there for the bulk of the primaries.
Trump will likely run as an independent after losing the primaries. This will make a huge mess, because it will split the vote between him and the GOP pick, giving Biden the win.
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Nikki is picking up more independents and even some democrats. Trump is in trouble.