Poll: Nearly half of Nikki Haley’s Iowa backers say they’d vote for Biden over Trump

The Iowa poll finds most likely GOP caucusgoers would vote for Trump in the 2024 general election —but not Haley’s supporters.

Jan. 14, 2024, 9:00 AM EST

By Mark Murray and Alexandra Marquez

DES MOINES, Iowa — Most likely Republican Iowa caucusgoers say they’ll vote for former President Donald Trump in the general election if he’s the GOP nominee, regardless of the candidate they’re supporting on caucus night.

That is, except supporters of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, with nearly half of them — 43% — saying they’d vote for Democratic President Joe Biden over Trump.

If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee in the general election in November, would you vote for him, vote for Joe Biden, vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., or vote for some other third-party candidate?

Among likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers.

BidenTrumpKennedyOther 3rd-partyNot sure/won't vote

Overall

71

Among Haley supporters

43

23

19

Notes: The poll was conducted Jan. 7-12 and surveyed 705 likely Iowa caucusgoers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Margins of error are wider for subgroups: plus or minus 8.3 points for Haley supporters.

Source: NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll

These new findings from the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa further illustrate the degree to which Haley is bringing in support from independents, Democrats and Republicans who have been uneasy with Trump’s takeover of the GOP. Fully half of her Iowa caucus supporters are independents or crossover Democrats, according to the survey results. Overall, Haley took 20% for second place in the survey, compared to 48% for Trump. The poll also shows three-quarters of caucusgoers believing Trump can defeat Biden despite the former president’s legal challenges. But again, a majority of Haley’s supporters think it will be nearly impossible for Trump to win.

“I am more officially a Democrat who used to be a Republican and have kind of switched over, and basically I’m wanting to caucus in Iowa for the least of the worst,” said 37-year-old poll respondent Chelsea Cheney of Linn County.

“And in looking through all of them, I think that’s Nikki Haley,” Cheney added. “I don’t necessarily love her, but I don’t find her dangerous in ways that I find many of the other candidates dangerous.”

Pollster J. Ann Selzer, who has been conducting this Iowa survey over the last three decades, said,“Haley is consolidating the anti-Trump vote. She does well with the people who define themselves as anti-Trump.”

And while that vote isn’t big enough in Iowa for Haley to pull close enough to really challenge Trump in polls there, a different mix of the electorate in New Hampshire — where independents make up a much larger share of the vote — could make the Jan. 23 primary there more competitive.

Overall, the Iowa poll finds 71% of likely GOP caucusgoers saying they’ll vote for Trump in the 2024 general election if he’s the Republican presidential nominee, versus 11% who will vote for Biden, 6% who will vote for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 8% for another third-party candidate. The remainder say they’re not sure or wouldn’t vote.

But among the Iowa caucusgoers who are supporting Haley as their first-choice candidate, just 23% say they’ll vote for Trump, versus 43% who say they’ll vote for Biden.

(So most of Haley’s supporters are bought by Reid hoffman, fake republicans, independents and they would cheat to prevent Trump from winning. Haley is a fake and is more radical then anyone knows. It’s obvious they have all been assigned to Nikki.)

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-nearly-half-haleys-iowa-backers-say-ll-vote-biden-trump-rcna133821?cid=referral_taboolafeed

>>20256537 NBC News Reports ‘Deep State’ Plot to Facilitate a ‘Military Coup’ Against Trump Amidst Fear for Alleged ‘Retribution’ if Re-Elected PN

I read the whole =Conspiracy Theory Article, its all conjecture, guesses, condemnation of Trump. And the people interviewed were guessing what Trump as a dictator would look like or be. Kek, he’d be much worse as a dictator than the Bushs, Obama and Bidan==. But the problem they have in this article, they have no proof that he would do anything at all. NBC and media in general are just gossip factories, with no thought of how stupid it sounds. And obviously they interview the DS that hate him, but never interview his supporters that worked with him in his first four years. Expect at least 5 more of these type of smear jobs. The article was not as interesting as the first one in this series. In that one, they mentioned concrete plans.

Quotes:

“A circle of appointees independent of Trump’s political operation steered him away from ideas that would have pushed the limits of presidential power in his last term, according to books they’ve written and testimony given to Congress. Most were gone by the end. In a new term,many former officials worry that Trump would instead surround himself with loyalistsunwilling to say no.

“Trump has raised fresh questions about his intentions if he regains power by putting forward a legal theory that a president would be free to do nearly anything with impunity — including assassinate political rivals — so long as Congress can’t muster the votes to impeach him and throw him out of office.

“Now, bracing for Trump’s potential return, aloose-knit network of public interest groups and lawmakers is quietly devising plans to try to foil any effortsto expand presidential power, which could include pressuring the military to cater to his political needs.

“Those taking part in the effort told NBC News they are studying Trump’s past actions and 2024 policy positions so that they will be ready if he wins in November. That involves preparing to take legal action and send letters to Trump appointees spelling out consequences they’d face if they undermine constitutional norms.

Part of the aim is to identify like-minded organizations and create a coalition to challenge Trump from day one, those taking part in the discussions said. Some participants are combing through policy papers being crafted for a future conservative administration. They’re also watching the interviews that Trump allies are giving to the press for clues to how a Trump sequel would look.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-military-fears-rcna129159

>>20257447

Why does the DS and Media have a problem with loyalty to the President and CiC? Its almost like they want to make that look like a bad thing, like when Comey said the same thing, on Russiagate. He said Trump wanted loyalty, like that was an outrageous ask.

Every President tries to pick loyal people, that would follow orders. There’s no way Bush, Obama and Bidan would fill their Admins with traitors and wouldn’t follow orders. So they basically want people in his Admin to not follow orders and contest anything he says or does.

The whole scheme fits the definition of insurrection by them and the media

>>20257464

She’s right you know!

Mollie@MZHemingway

NBC reports theleft is plotting ways to have military not be under civilian control. This dangerous and unconstitutional usurpation of power is being framed by NBC as good because it will undermine Trump if he is freely and fairly elected by Americans.

From nbcnews.com

3:50 PM · Jan 14, 2024

·

1M Views

https://x.com/MZHemingway/status/1746636048052986007?s=20

Nikki Haley’s speechwriter forgot to update her script after that humiliating third-place finish…

All we’ve heard for the past several days is how establishment darling Nikki Haley is “surging,” and she’s now the only one who can “beat Trump.” Poll after poll was even showing Nikki taking the distant 2nd place lead from DeSantis.

Des Moines Register:

Although Nikki Haley has pulled ahead of Ron DeSantis, the Iowa Poll shows clear dangers lurk for her going into a caucus night that could be decided by Iowans’ willingness to brave the bitter cold[.]

Nikki Haley’s team, the media, and the GOP establishment were all abuzz over her expected second-place finish in Iowa. They saw it as the first step in overtaking President Trump. But, as it turned out, they were way off the mark. President Trump didn’t just win in Iowa; he dominated in a historic landslide. Meanwhile,Nikki’s anticipated so-called “surge” never materialized. She trailed behind DeSantis, ending up a distant and disappointing third to President Trump.

However, it seems like Nikki Haley’s speechwriters missed the memo about her humiliating loss. Thanks to her shocking third-place finish, she should have given a farewell or concession speech. Instead,she ended up delivering what sounded like a victory speech from the teleprompters. She talked about the race being “between two people now,” clearly indicating she was reading a script meant for a “second-place finish,” not the third place she actually got.

Whoops.

It was definitely an awkward moment. In contrast, there was nothing awkward or weird about President Trump’s victory speech. Following his resounding and historic win, President Trump, in his unique ‘Trump-esque’ style, made sure to acknowledge his two opponents.

We’ll leave you with this very fitting meme of Nikki Haley as the GOP’s “equity” candidate. Despite being unpopular, untested, and inexperienced, she’s celebrating after an embarrassing third-place finish.If this isn’t the epitome of “DEI” in politics, it’s hard to say what is.

(Their plan to recruit Bidan/Democrat voters to vote for her didn’t work. Not enough of them in the State of Iowa. Kek)

https://revolver.news/2024/01/nikki-haley-scriptwriter-forgot-to-update-speech-after-that-humiliating-third-place-finish/

(Johnson betrays America Again!)

Speaker Johnson rejects hard-line tactics in move to avoid shutdown. 1/3

Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) decision to support a short-term stopgap spending bill marks the latest instance of the new Speaker rejecting tactics favored by hard-line conservatives as he navigates a bare-bones GOP majority.

Thebipartisan proposal significantly lowers the chances of a partial government shutdownafter Friday’s deadline, and it mirrors the two-step framework conservatives championed as part of the previous continuing resolution (CR) in order to avoid a massive end-of-year, whole-of-government omnibus bill.

But it is not buying the new Speaker any goodwill among hard-liners, who are speaking out against his decision to cut another “clean” continuing resolution deal with Democrats.

“This is what surrender looks like,”the House Freedom Caucus wrote Sunday on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, accusing leadership of trying to clear spending bills “at Pelosi levels with Biden policies.”

After deliberations between Johnson and members of his politically diverse conference, congressional leaders landed on a two-step CR that extends funding to March 1 and March 8, buying lawmakers more time to complete the formal appropriations process.

Hard-lineconservatives last week urged Johnson to embrace a long-term continuing resolution— potentially through the end of fiscal 2024 in September — which would have triggered a 1 percent across-the-board cut mechanism that was included in the debt limit deal then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) struck with President Biden last year.

They argued that the threat of across-the-board cuts would give the conference leverage to secure conservative policy priorities and renegotiate the bipartisan top-line spending deal leaders unveiled earlier in the month.

Theroughly $1.66 trillion top-line agreement Johnson struck with Democratic leadersalso drew the ire of conservatives who urged him to renege on the agreement.

But Johnson — who in November said he was done with short-term continuing resolutions — also had to contend with appropriators and moderates in his party warning against backtracking on the deal. They argued that a shorter continuing resolution would provide a better incentive to finally complete the regular fiscal 2024 appropriations process.

After a flurry of closed-door meetings last week, Johnson asked a group of moderate GOP lawmakers if they could support a full-year continuing resolution, and nearly all said no, according to one attendee….

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4412309-speaker-johnson-hard-line-tactics-shutdown/

>>20257528

2/3“An Ungodly Man”

In the end,Johnson sided with moderates and appropriators: He stuck by the agreement he made with Democratsand ultimately backed a “clean” continuing resolution, dealing a two-part blow to the right flank of his conference.

Conservatives are already expressing their outrage.

“Enough with the continuing resolutions. We’ve had plenty of time to address funding levels. Congress keeps punting this while our southern border remains a mess and our national debt continues to surge. We are doing the American people a disservice,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), a former chairman of the Freedom Caucus, wrote on X.

“This is unacceptable to keep kicking this can down the road,” Rep. Mark Alford (R-Mo.) said during an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday. “I won’t be a part of it.”

Johnson, for his part, has touted some of the budgetary tweaks he secured in the top-line spending agreement, such as accelerating cuts to a planned IRS funding boost and additional clawbacks of pandemic aid.

And while he did admit that the top-line deal was “not all we want,” he argued it was the “best” they could do in a divided Washington.

“It’s not the best deal that we could get if we were in charge of both chambers and the White House. But it’s the best deal that we could broker under the circumstances,” Johnson told reporters in the Capitol last week.

The Speaker faces pressure beyond the hard-liners. Johnson is dealing with a historically slim House majority made even more difficult this week by absences ofHouse Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), due to cancer treatment, and of Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.), who was hospitalized following a car accident.Assuming full attendance otherwise, Republicans can afford to lose just two votes on any party-line measure.

And any measure will have to get through the Democratic-controlled Senate and signed by President Biden.

To get around the conservative opposition, Johnson will likely have to bring thecontinuing resolution up in the House under suspension of the rules— a fast-track process that bypasses the need to first approve a procedural rule vote that dictates the terms of debate.

While rule votes have historically been routine, mundane referendums — where the majority party votes in support and the minority party votes in opposition —hard-liners in this Congress have voted against ruleson a number of occasions as a way to highlight their frustration with leadership.

Forcing Johnson to pass the legislation under suspension of the rules — which requires two-thirds support for passage — means the Speaker will have to rely heavily on Democrats to clear the continuing resolution. If all 213 Democrats vote in support, Johnson will need at least 77 Republicans on board to get the measure over the finish line…

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4412309-speaker-johnson-hard-line-tactics-shutdown/

>>20257531

3/3

Assuming wide bipartisan support for the stopgap, conservatives lack leverage to avoid getting steamrolled on the continuing resolution — which they admit.

“When all the Democrats are going to vote for something, and you have a bunch of Republicans who never want to confront anything, there’s little that the rest of us, including the Speaker, can do about that,” Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a former Freedom Caucus chair, said on Fox Business on Tuesday.

It is an open question whether Johnson will face any wider consequences from the right flank, which also expressed frustrations with other moves he made, such astemporarily extending foreign spy authorities in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

Some hard-liners, including Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), have floated another potential “motion to vacate” — the process that forced a recall vote on McCarthy and led to his ouster from the top House job last year.

But as hard-liners are appearing to accept defeat on the short-term stopgap, they are turning attention to how to secure any more wins on border and migration policy — a topic that may be another test for Johnson.

“We’re asking for border security to be a feature of the discussion over government funding, not just something that is resolved within some supplemental Christmas future,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said last week, referring to the ongoing bipartisan negotiations in the Senate on border security to unlock aid for Ukraine.

After months of talks, the negotiators have not unveiled a deal, but Johnson has signaled his opposition to the plan under discussion.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4412309-speaker-johnson-hard-line-tactics-shutdown/

Mulvaney: Why a 2,335-vote margin in Iowa likely guaranteed Trump the nomination

BY MICK MULVANEY, - 01/17/24 7:30 AM

Commentators, politicos and reporters who follow campaigns love numbers. Hence all the chatter in the wake of the Iowa caucuses about the roughly $120 million that was spentby all the candidates and their related PACs, andthe roughly 110,000 people — record-low turnout— who braved the historic negative-30 degree windchill to participate.

Those who have a calculator will opine as to whether the whole thing was worth almost $1,100 per caucus-goer. Given the chance, we will even remind everyone that Iowa has 99 counties, that Vivek Ramaswamy visited each one at least twice, and for all that received only about 43 voters per county.

But this is my favorite number from the 2024 Iowa caucus: 2,335.

That is the margin between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s second place, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s third. Those 2,335 are probably former President Donald Trump’s favorite people in the entire country right now.

That’s because they, as much as the 56,000 who actually voted for him, may well have guaranteed Trump the GOP nomination.

Donald Trump was obviously the big winner of the Iowa caucuses. He won by the largest margin of victory (for a non-incumbent) in the caucuses’ history. He passed the critical 50 percent threshold, slamming the door on any murmuring that he might have some hidden weaknesses going into New Hampshire. In short, he did everything he needed to preserve his role as the prohibitive favorite.

But DeSantis’s second-place finish virtually guarantees that the race for the nomination remains a three-way contest until at least Super Tuesday. And that is exactly what Trump wanted.

If DeSantis had underperformed — indeed, if had finished third by even a handful of votes — he would likely have joined Vivek Ramaswamy in gracefully bowing out Tuesday night. That is certainly what the chattering class had laid out: He needed to finish second, or else he was finished entirely. And that was probably correct.

But he didn’t, thanks to those 2,335 people. So, as you read this,DeSantis is somewhere in South Carolina, trying to figure out how vulnerable Haley might be in her home state.He is skipping New Hampshire entirely, but that is pretty much the plan he had laid out when he decided to put all his eggs in the Iowa basket.

Trump and Haley, then, will slug it out in New Hampshire. And certainly, all eyes will be on the margin between the two candidates. But New Hampshire is a little different, and everyone knows it. Independents (or, more technically, anyone who isn’t registered with a particular party) can vote there. Many are expected to do so, largely in favor of Haley. That may well speak to her appeal to mainstream voters who abandoned Trump in 2020. But few commentators consider it indicative of, say, likely voting trends in the largely Republican-only contests that lie ahead in the critical month of March.

Although New Hampshire will essentially be a two-person race, South Carolina and the first Super Tuesday states will not.Trump will, as he did in Iowa, face a fractured opposition. And while he is polling well above 50 percent in most of those states, he won’t need to do even that well.

Many of those later states — including monsters such as California — are winner-take-all. Even if Trump slips a little bit,no one right now thinks he is coming in second in a three-way race.

The outcome might have been different, but for those 2,335 people. If Haley had finished second, she would have cleared the field for the head-to-head challenge for which the anti-Trump wing of the party has been longing. She also might have had dramatically more momentum going into New Hampshire — momentum that she was counting on to close the gap with, and maybe even catch, her former boss.

Trump might have skated to the nomination in any event. But certainly, his path got a lot easier Monday night.

In her wrap-up speech in Des Moines, Haley opined that the result of the caucuses was that the campaign going forward would be, in essence, a two-person race. That is likely something that got written, in a hopeful sense, before the results came in.

Only 2,335 votes separated DeSantis from Haley.And there is no suggestion that Trump convinced that many people to caucus for the Florida governor. But if he had, it would have been genius.

https://thehill.com/opinion/4412879-mulvaney-why-a-2335-vote-margin-in-iowa-likely-guaranteed-trump-the-nomination/

Scarborough says Iowa victory ‘bad news’ for Trump (Scarborough is stupid)1/16/2024

MSNBC anchor Joe Scarborough warned Tuesday that former President Trump’s win in Iowa could mean “bad news” for his chances in a general election.

“The fact that Donald Trump has 50 percent of Republicans not voting for him, and as Steve Kornacki said, one-third hating him in the state of Iowa, in the state of Iowa … I gotta say for people who actually want to win general elections, that’s not good news,” Scarborough said.

Scarborough compared Trump to former President Obama on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Tuesday, when he explained the GOP front-runner’s victory in Iowa does not signal strength for the GOP party. He argued that if Obama took four years off and ran in Iowa’s Democratic caucuses, he would have had more than 90 percent of the vote, compared with Trump’s approximately 50 percent.

“Fifty percent of people voting in the Iowa caucuses against a former president is bad news for that party’s prospects in the general election. Not good news. And again, just again, let’s sit ask what Barack Obama would have gotten if he had done the same thing. It would have been in the high 90s,” Scarborough added.

Scarborough is not the only one sounding the alarm bells on Trump’s Monday night win in Iowa, where he secured 51 percent of the vote in the caucuses. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) said his win demonstrated Trump’s “weakness” in an MSNBC interview Monday night.

“I think that is telling. It tells you the weakness of Donald Trump and also the opportunity for Democrats because in the end, look, if the base doesn’t turn out for Donald Trump in the general election enthusiastically and Democrats turn out its base, this is all about, you know, independents, and independents don’t like Donald Trump,” Pritzker said.

Despite the negative outlook, Trump still maintains a comfortable lead in national GOP primary polls. According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ,Trump is leading his closest GOP rivals by nearly 53 percentage points. In a head-to-head match-up up with President Biden, his likely opponent, Trump has a narrow lead of 1.3 percentage points, also according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4412449-scarborough-iowa-victory-bad-news-for-trump/

>>20257583

It was -30 degrees and the weather was bad, they don’t take that into consideration. Intentionally!

Race to Milwaukee: Iowa Iowa Iowa

All according to keikaku

JAN 16, 2024

Four years ago, the Sun’s staff did a Race To Milwaukee gimmick posting series. The Republican National Convention is in Milwaukee this cycle so we get to recycle the series.

Stock Up

Trump - No surprises. Nothing strange happened. He and affiliated PACs spent under $30 million for media buys in Iowa. Team Desantis spent over $75 mil and Team Haley spent over $60 mil. He did not show up to any debates. He did not even tweet.

Vivek - The campaign did not pull off a surprise, but for all the joking that he was this year’s Yang Gang, Vivek pulled almost 8% of the vote. This is superior to Yang’s performance. We thank him for discussing things that Trump would have discussed that no one else did and for using rhetoric and lines that brought new topics to a broader audience. Hopefully he gets an administration slot where he can prove he’s more than a good talker.

GOP caucus organizers - The party did not let a bleed in of infiltrators for Haley make a mockery of the event. There was no bizarre “no results, yeah sure Pete won it, uhh how about two guys won it” result like the Democrats’ 2020 caucus. It was a small display of competence. Nice job.

GOP consultants - Sweet millions already allocated for complete loser candidates with no chance of winning. How do they create these wonderful ploys?

Stock Down

Nikki Haley - The entire hack establishment got behind her with major money flowing in andall she did was reveal she is tan Hillary. She did not even just repeat her old Tea Party era lines but took on a new form. Recent polls showed her cracking into 2nd place with a ‘surge’ to the low to mid 20s. Not good that Ron held her off.

Ron Desantis - He will limp along,but this is atrocious because he destroyed his chances in ‘28.His campaign has been a dead man walking since the establishment swung behind Haley. We have contributors who feel bad for him, and it is a tragic story.All he had to do was wait.

Establishment pundits - They cannot ever get anything right. They are repeating the same mistakes of 2015/2016. They are terrible at understanding their base, and the donors and editors of their publications should clean house. Should have happened in 2017, definitely needs to happen now.

Desantis unofficial (but looks awfully official) online influencer crew - These people were detrimental to the Desantis campaign. Bad press due to some leaks for an actual campaign worker,but really, just the nastiest group of posters on Twitter. They had zero sense of humor, which made it painful to engage with them good or bad. Did anyone give a shit about the 223rd Pedro Gonzalez tweet about Gov. Desantis on a Wednesday?Dave Reaboi dumped on Trump at every moment in between taking pics of his dog going to the gym with him. There was no joi de vivre with them. No one can recreate the spirit of 2016, especially people who are late to the showand lift terribly from anons while at the same time shitting on anons. Who thought this was a good idea? Who recommended these people? Not to single them out (Rubin was just as bad + Girdusky had his moments), but they were the most annoying. These guys should apologize to all the people they cut out of their life (work related) as the Desantis campaign lost momentum and went into zombie status.

The GOP - It’s over for them. They are controlled opposition, we all know this, butthere is no message for the future that is not MAGA, and they do not want to push MAGA. Very difficult years are ahead for the nation, forget the silly party, and dangerous rhetoric and bloodthirsty fantasies proliferate on the left. When a people feel cornered, the first group they will lash out at will be those who were supposed to defend them and prevent the back against the wall scenario but failed to do so ==(and aided in its creation). Voting for Trump is a mild expression of this.

https://theamericansun.substack.com/p/race-to-milwaukee-iowa-iowa-iowa