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Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is faring better, enjoying a 53.6% approval rating juxtaposed to only 33.1% who disapprove and 13.3% who are undecided. That includes 25.4% who strongly approve and only 14.7% who strongly disapprove. Even more than 1 in 4 (27.7%) Republicans approve of the job he is doing as governor.
Democrats lead Republicans on the Generic Ballot for the U.S. House of Representatives. If the elections were held today, 43.4% would vote for the Democratic candidate and 39.1% would vote for the Republican candidate. However, a sizable 14.5% remain undecided and 3.1% say they would vote for someone else.
Methodology
The Rust Belt Poll conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1,305 registered voters statewide in Pennsylvania from March 26 to March 30, 2024. See the full press release for a more detailed methodology statement. Likely voters were screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 48 hours to complete the interview. Interview details can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on a locator pin. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. The overall sampling error is u00b12.6% at a 95% confidence interval. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
Regional Definitions By County
The Keystone Battleground notably adds two additional regions not explicitly defined in traditional exit polls for Pennsylvania, and they are weighted accordingly: Dutch and Allegheny. This is done to ensure better representation in rural and suburban areas due to higher participation rates in higher population centers and more metro areas. Itu2019s important to note that part of the Dutch Region includes what is traditionally referred to as the Philadelphia Suburbs.
Philadelphia: Philadelphia
Southeast: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery
Northeast: Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Pike, Schuylkill, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming
Dutch: Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, York
Central: Armstrong, Bedford, Blair, Bradford, Cameron, Centre, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk, Forest, Fulton, Huntingdon, Indiana, Jefferson, Juniata, Lycoming, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Potter, Snyder, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren
West: Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Crawford, Erie, Fayette, Greene, Lawrence, Mercer, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland
Allegheny: Allegheny
https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/rust-belt-poll-keystone-battleground-for-april-2024/