MktFags Economic Schedule for Week of April 21, 2024

This is the data coming but as you’ve all seen it doesn’t mean much when it sucks but boy if there is a glimmer of improvement the Algos kick in and celebrate. Bad is good but good is fuggen GREAT! This is what we have so trade and tread lightly. Futures are up (wut a surprise-I can’t see any meaningful crash with Yellen still in charge at UST) and you can see in what is a normally a pretty quiet time for metals both Ag and Au are down for this time of the trade-so look for that all important smack down when NYMEX opens up….it’s overdue imo.

The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, March New Home sales and March Personal Income and Outlays.

(plus the always Hilarious GDPNOW update from Atlanta FED on Weds and last was Latest estimate: 2.9 percent – April 16, 2024)

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

For manufacturing, the April Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released.

• Monday, April 22nd -

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

• Tuesday, April 23rd -

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 662 thousand in February.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

- Wednesday, April 24th -

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. (expect this to still be pinned at lows with spike in rates)

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• Thursday, April 25th -

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, down from 212 thousand last week. (This is such a farce I don’t even know how they keep a straight face when it’s released)

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q1, down from 3.4% in Q4. (this will be revised downward just like it’s been been for months)

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 2.0% decrease in the index. (likely worse.)

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April.

• Friday, April 26th -

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2024. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 77.9.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/schedule-for-week-of-april-21-2024.html?m=1

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

>>20759209

>>20759237

Pretty sure the lack of any meaningful demand is what’s werking on that. Lithium is a weird trade too (compared to others iirc) as it doesn’t have a huge futures market and much of it is straight up trade.

Good night anons

>>20759269

>>20759214 MktFags Economic Schedule for Week of April 21, 2024

German AF GAF955 heading to IstanbulPresident SteinmeirFrom Berlin to meet w/Erdogan

German President Steinmeier to meet Erdogan, opposition in Turkey

http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/109489041.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

>>20759576

From an a mid day departure yesterday SAM582 arrived at Edwards AFB

>>20759575

Probabaly because the clock faggit got abused in the past and is moar subjective as opposed to presenting something that Iis indisputable (providing caps instead of personal interpretations)

In the past some of the CF (not all) we’re huge stretches and became that way due to a certain individual which will not be named basically making shut up on the fly.

>>20759214,

>>20748237, pb

‘Tremendous' currency pressure tests Asia bond investors

The U.S. dollar's strength and bets that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts are turning up the heat on Asian bond investors, as local currencies in popular markets such as Indonesia and South Korea come under heavy depreciation pressure.

The Indonesian rupiah and South Korean won are among the region's worst-performing currencies, while the Malaysian ringgit has remained weak against the dollar since it touched a 26-year low in late February. The headwinds are buffeting local currency debt investors, who often need to hedge against foreign exchange risk. Last week, the won marked 1,400 against the greenback, its weakest level since November 2022, while the rupiah hit a four-year low of 16,200.

The pressure shows few signs of abating. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week signaled that restrictive monetary policy may need more time to work, dampening speculation on a rate cut anytime soon. Rising oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East and China's uncertain economic outlook despite a better-than-expected growth performance in the first quarter are also negative factors looming over export-driven Asian economies like South Korea, investors say.

"With the Fed now pushing back on rate cuts, the U.S. dollar will likely remain strong, exerting further pressure on Asian currencies," said Nigel Foo, head of Asian fixed income at First Sentier Investors. "In Asian local currency markets, yields have moved higher and currencies have weakened. This could potentially challenge our optimistic expectations of decent gains."

The Asian bond market, including local currency- and dollar-denominated debt, recorded a net outflow of $4.1 billion in Marchfollowing four consecutive months of inflows, according to a monthly report by ANZ Banking Group. A large proportion of the outflow was due to foreign investors pulling money out of South Korea, to the tune of $4.3 billion last month – the most since January 2023, when $5.3 billion exited, ANZ data shows.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bonds/Tremendous-currency-pressure-tests-Asia-bond-investors

Currencies calm but cautious after a weary week

The euro and yen were relatively steady in early Asian trading on Monday and the U.S. dollar stayed near its highs after last week's hectic policy and geopolitical developments.

Eyes are on the yen this week, with the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Friday policy review the notable item on the economic calendar.

The yen hit 154.70 per dollar, not far from last week's 34-year low of 154.79 and close enough to the 155-level that is next on traders' alerts for possible intervention by Japanese authorities.(See above). The dollar's trade-weighted index was above 106, but off five-month highs it struck last week after comments from Federal Reserve officials and a run of hotter-than-expected inflation data forced a paring back of rate cut expectations.

A cooling in Middle East tensions, which had driven the dollar, gold and crude oil prices sharply higher on Friday and battered stock markets, also helped temper volatility. Tehran downplayed Israel's retaliatory drone strike against Iran, in what appeared to be a move aimed at averting regional escalation.(ZERO chance of BOJ rate hike)

Referring to Japanese rates swaps, Weston said he sees "no change priced for this meeting" but a hike of 10 basis points priced by July and 25 bps priced by December.

The strong dollar prevailed at last week's International Monetary Fund/World Bank spring meetings in Washington too, and the United States, Japan and South Korea issued a rare joint statement on the issue.

Speaking after the Group of 20 (G20) finance leaders' meeting in Washington, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Japanese central bank may raise interest rates again if the yen's declines significantly push up inflation, highlighting the dilemma the weak currency has become for policymakers.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/currencies-calm-cautious-after-weary-week-2024-04-22/

Fed's favorite inflation gauge and Big Tech earnings greet a slumping stock market: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-and-big-tech-earnings-greet-a-slumping-stock-market-what-to-know-this-week-114204074.html

>>20759592

GM

>>20759611