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Anonymous ID: 732d7a April 28, 2024, 6:03 p.m. No.20791864   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>1875 >>1976 >>2006 >>2051

Economic Schedule and ‘Bidness Headlines for Week of April 28, 2024

 

( )= additional comments

 

The key report scheduled for this week is the April employment report. (BLS sez we’re creating all these jobs by hiring illegals-look for moar of same-Weds is bizzy)

 

Other key reports include February Case-Shiller house prices (no surprise there….UP), April vehicle sales and the March trade balance. The FOMC meets this week and no change to the Fed funds rate is expected (please see “higher for longer” article coming) For manufacturing, the April Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, and the ISM index will be released.

 

(We also get another “read” from the comedy act over at the Atlanta FED-GDPNOW-)“Latest estimate: 3.9 percent – April 26, 2024”

 

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.9 percent on April 26. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 25 was 1.6 percent, 1.1 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 24.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, May 1.

 

(It remains woefully optimistic all the time and shows no signs of changing so what do you expect with the conventions coming up soon and then selection).

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

  • Monday, April 29th -

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

 

  • Tuesday, April 30th -

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February. The consensus is for a 6.7% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for February. (Eventually this market will price out most and be DOA-however people still move for various reasons that are out of their control so it will never just stop….but the higher prices go along with rates-bond markets-most will have a hard time choosing to exchange a much lower rate for a higher one, cash buyers notwithstanding obviously)

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for February. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April. The consensus is for a reading of 45.0, up from 41.4 in March.

10:00 AM: the Q1 2024 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

 

  • Wednesday, May 1st -

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. (It is the start of peak sales activity but can’t help but think it will be a bit muted based on the bond market rising as the 10y heads towards last Octobers high)

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 180,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 184,000 added in March.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.1, down from 50.3 in March.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS. (Look up the term ‘ghost job listings’…that’s all I’m sayin’ on that…it’s a game). Jobs openings were little changed in February at 8.76 million from 8.75 million in January. The number of job openings were down 11% year-over-year in February.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement. (Expect a flat mkt from this unless some geopolitical shit goes off at same time)

 

All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The expectation is for light vehicle sales to be 15.7 million SAAR in April, up from 15.5 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

 

  • Thursday, May 2nd -

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, up from 207 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $68.8 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $68.9 billion in February.

 

  • Friday, May 3rd -

(And the absolute biggest pile of statistical and manipulated pile of shit-and markets will celebrate it no matter what the internals show-that the BLS produces is……)

8:30 AM: Employment Report for April.   The consensus is for 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%. There were 303,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 3.8%. (see above….that’s what it said so don’t shoot the messenger)

 

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 52.0, up from 51.4.

 

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/schedule-for-week-of-april-28-2024.html

 

1 of 2

Anonymous ID: 732d7a April 28, 2024, 6:04 p.m. No.20791875   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>1910 >>1976 >>2006 >>2051

>>20791864

2 of 2

‘Bidness Headlines/Performance on Sunday evening

 

(And hope you are having a nice evening and weekend as well)

 

Fed Rate Doubts Have Options Traders Covering Both Hikes and Cuts

 

(More on that on attached post w/ comments)

 

Treasury options traders are protecting against everything from multiple interest-rate cuts this year to a hike ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting this week. Recent inflation data has remained stronger than had been expected, dimming expectations that the central bank will cut rates any time soon. While short positions in Treasury futures extended last week as yields pushed through fresh yearly highs, options flow has suggested growing uncertainty around the path of the Fed’s monetary policy for this year, with a number of deep out-the-money tail-risk hedges appearing across a number of tenors. The positioning covers most extreme dovish and hawkish scenarios being priced into this year, including hedges targeting a policy rate as low as 3% by the December FOMC versus around 5% currently priced into the swaps market.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-28/fed-rate-doubts-have-options-traders-covering-both-hikes-and-cuts

 

Stock futures are little changed following S&P 500′s best week since November: Live updates

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/28/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

FTC's noncompete ban could reshape the US workplace

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ftcs-noncompete-ban-could-reshape-the-us-workplace-140012480.html

 

Weaker yen keeps Japanese tourists at home while visitors throng

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/709652

 

Japan's Buffett-backed trading houses hit by weaker commodity prices

 

Japan's general trading houses Mitsubishi Corp., Itochu, Mitsui & Co., Sumitomo Corp., and Marubeni  have become big names on the equities market since Warren Buffett-led Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its investment in them in 2020. They are set to announce their annual earnings results in the first weeks of May.

All of their profits except Itochu's are expected to fall from the previous year, according to a QUICK consensus of analysts, dragged down largely by normalized commodity prices, while investor attention will likely be fixed on their investor return policies, such as dividends and share buybacks.

Moar

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Market-Spotlight/Japan-s-Buffett-backed-trading-houses-hit-by-weaker-commodity-prices

 

China firms go 'underground' on Russia payments as banks pull back

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-firms-go-underground-russia-payments-banks-pull-back-2024-04-28/

 

The Futures are up a little and after Mondays smack down in the PMs as predicted on Sunday night in here they took back a little of it throughout the week but flat now as usual at this time. Energy and Metals caps and links provided

 

https://www.cnbc.com/index-futures/

https://www.kitco.com/charts/gold

https://www.kitco.com/charts/silver

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

 

A Chipotle Double Steak Bowl Is Now $39 In California

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chipotle-double-steak-bowl-now-39-california

 

(With all the great taquerias all over CA in LA/SD it always makes me laugh this place exists here in SD especially-people are “afraid” though I’ve heard it a million times)

Anonymous ID: 732d7a April 28, 2024, 6:12 p.m. No.20791910   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>1976 >>2006 >>2051

>>20791875

 

Fed Repricing Gives Rise to New Equities Playbook in Asia

 

( ) additional comments

Cap 2 is FOMC June CME FEDwatch

 

(this is gonna burn a lot of people because the FOMC will be forced to do QE probably before they-and they already warned of an Operation Twist in reverse-see below for what that is-cut rates when our 10y goes above or stays near last Octobers high and plus the absolute SHIT TON of underwater Commercial Real Estate refinancing going on and that will continue to accelerate this and next year so they keep pushing “higher for longer” and we also just had another bank shotgun wedding on the requisite after hours announcement Friday so go ahead and believe that rates will remain higher going into an election that the current POTUS is failing miserably-you’ve seen the approval ratings polls.This ENTIRE economy is built on low interest rates.in CRE land there are even a few examples of entire high Sq footage CRE in prime locations selling for $1. That is NOT going to improve unless the bond market goes higher….lower rates. The only thing going for it is the creation of “cheap” dollars via yen carry trade but as it closed on Friday at 158.30 per $ it’s not looking so good. It’s still just over 158 just after it’s open but I’d be looking for that much anticipated intervention in a few days time, at least towards end of this week for some ‘distance’ as they just met last Friday. Back to headline above….it’s just saying Asian stonks are “cheap” relative to US stocks but is disingenuous as Asia doesn’t have a Plunge Protection Team, Exchange Stabilization Fund, and many of the tricks the FED/US Treasury has but don’t think it’s without help they have it but it’s not as well coordinated as ours and Europe)

 

Higher-for-longer interest rate environment is burnishing the credentials of cheap Chinese stocks (“cheap is awfully relative considering how they got so elevated in the first place) and driving value investment strategies in Asia.  Corporate reforms in Japan (Bwahahaha) and South Korea will support a value thesis, according to JPMorgan Asset Management and AllianzGI. Meanwhile, M&G Investment Management is attracted by near record-low valuations for Chinese stocks. Other haven plays are exporters and India’s domestic-driven equities. Federal Reserve’s easing will lift markets across Asia, multi-asset managers are now turning more selective under a drastically different environment. A hawkish pivot by the region’s central banks to protect their currencies has sapped the appeal of bonds, a traditional safe haven, putting the onus on stocks to deliver returns.  

 

The latest market pricing indicates the Fed will start easing in November, a far cry from earlier bets for as many as six cuts in 2024.Foreign funds have sold more than $7 billion worth of equities in emerging Asia excluding China so far in April, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, on track for the first outflow in six months.The outlook is even dimmer for currencies and bonds. A tighter-for-longer Fed means Treasuries will remain attractive over their foreign counterparts. A Bloomberg gauge of local currency government debt in emerging Asia has lost 1.7% in dollar terms this year. MSCI’s Asia Pacific equity benchmark has gained about that amount. 

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-repricing-gives-rise-to-new-equities-playbook-in-asia-1.2066006

 

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPY=X/

 

Operation Twist

 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operation-twist.asp

Anonymous ID: 732d7a April 28, 2024, 6:30 p.m. No.20791971   🗄️.is 🔗kun

>>20791946

That was a reverse Repo of $10b in mid Sept 2008 at the EXACT moment the system did not need it

I even sent a bunch of emails out and actually got a mention on Pim Fox’s program and he asked pimpcos El-Arian (who was his guest)and he said “ nothing to worry about”

A few days later the money market withdrawals (Reputed to be $500b quickly) panicked the FDIC to raise insured deposit limit from $100k to $250k