Tyb
==Planfaggin’: Europe/Med activity
Lots of NATO equipment being moved in to Sweden today-a few moar C17s from Aviano saw but could not ‘catch’ so it appears to be moving day into Sweden
Let’s start with Pakis
Paki AF REX20 G4 departed RAF Farnborough E and data stopped east of Moscow
RCH571/5/7 C17 Globeys in at Jonkoping, Sweden and there was 3 others earlier out of Aviano AB (didn’t get them before dropped) a lot of equipment being moved out of Aviano AB eastern Italy to Sweden today
RAF RRR6648 C17 Globey heading to the “let’s deliver more ‘goodies’ to Sweden party” and he’s out of Farnborough
Denmark AF DAF8313 Challenger 600 yo Stockholm from Copenhagen depart
Poland AF JAMMER F16 did square runs around Warsaw and he’s done nao back at Łódź AB
Polish AF PLF120 737 mebby Tusk (haven’t pinned him down yet but know Duda) NW from Warsaw Chopin Intl
Med
French AF FAF4092 delivering fuel in western Black Sea heading to Douda Bay and was an RAF Rivet Joint over same area earlier
Hungarian AF HUAF566 Falcon 7x heading to Tel Aviv (and heavily spoofed)
French AF CTM2070 A400m out of Libya NW
What up dawg?
SAMFOX G5 heading to Offutt AFB (STRATCOM) likely a Foreign VIP (that’s what this call sign used to mean)
RCH701 C17 Globey heading to Port Au Prince, Haiti-saw three yesterday and one earlier so 2 total so far today
Haiti's police reach breaking point as gangs take over key areas in Port-au-Prince
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/haitis-police-reach-breaking-point-as-gangs-take-over-key-areas-in-port-au-prince/ar-BB1lYj04
Ok
Late start here
Early Dr appt
They never seem to end
Gettin’ there d’oh
Most of dis is out of muh control
But that’s life right?
Kek
Ty
Kek
Need muh Brian occupied so this does that fer me or cray then too much of this (cap)
Have a good day muh fren
Beautiful day here now
Stocks rally anew but fade to flat again on US rate cut hopes; dollar steady
(They’ve been at this rate cut rally for a long time. Light data this week so perfect time to squeeze the shorts on nothing (info/data wise) however when that is bad it doesn’t matter as long as those monthly statements keep showing ‘Up’.)
Global shares traded close to one-month highs on Tuesday, boosted by revived optimism that the Federal Reserve cuts U.S. interest rates once if not twice this year, while a weaker yen offset by a stronger euro kept the dollar steady.
A U.S. jobs report last week that was weaker than economists had forecast and data showing the slowest growth in nearly two years the prior week sparked a dramatic swing in the outlook for when and by how much the Fed might cut rates. (NYFRB Williams told you yesterday what they were going to do) >>20828534 pb so pay attention because that one doesn’t talk much so when does….listen as the others yammer on day to day)
Traders are now pricing in 45 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2024, with a first cut possibly in September, according to LSEG's rate probability app. Traders had recently priced in just one cut due to sticky inflation data.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes slid to an almost a one-month low of 4.420%, while the dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six peers, was off about 1.2% from nearly a six-month high on May 1.
The strength of the U.S. housing market and potentially stalled progress on inflation means monetary policy may be less restrictive than officials believe, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an essay that raises the possibility prices are "settling" at a level above the Fed's 2% target. (They’ve already admitted that 3% is the new 2% and more proof of that from wanted to be CA Governor Kashkari-READ BETWEEN THE LINES watch what they say but it’s more important to watch what they do….linky above Williams didn’t say HOW they were going to cut rates either just mentions what they control w/o saying it and that’s Prime)
The renewed outlook for lower rates has increased the appetite for stocks and other riskier assets, such as bitcoin. Treasury yields slipped, with traders focused on absorbing $125 billion in new supply this week, while last week's jobs report and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell spurred a rally.
Demand will be tested at an auction of $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, followed by $42 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year bond on Thursday.
The 10-year Treasury fell 5.2 basis points to 4.437%, while the two-year note, which reflects interest rate expectations, slid 1.5 basis points to 4.807%. (10y been dropping after it got close to 4.75% cap 2 they can’t have it at 5%-last Oct high-yield but lowest values on those tons of practically ZIRP bonds the banking system has inside it Williams told you they will be buying-QE-the short end as the 1y is still over 5% cap 3)
Expectations of falling rates have weighed on the dollar, though only gently. European policymakers are readying cuts for June, capping the euro, and rates are not expected to move too far above zero in Japan this year, leaving a wide gap with the rest of the world.
The dollar index rose 0.04%, with the euro up 0.04% to $1.0772.
The yen, meanwhile, weakened 0.38% at 154.47 per dollar.
Traders estimate Japan spent almost $60 billion defending the yen last week. (And the NYFRB helped them too cap 4 and I’m thinking they may just kamikaze it again to prove a point but that an opinion). Australia's central bank left interest rates on hold, as expected, but the Aussie dollar slipped about 0.23% to $0.6607 after policymakers did not strengthen guidance around the risk of another rate hike. Oil prices steadied as weakness in the physical market and concerns about sticky U.S. inflation countered fears of escalation in the Middle East as Israel stepped up attacks in southern Gaza while a ceasefire deal hung in the balance.
U.S. crude recently rose 0.28% to $78.70 per barrel and Brent was at $83.50, up 0.2% on the day.
Spot gold dropped 0.4% to $2,315.25 an ounce.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-05-07/
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/markets/indexes.asp
4 Globeys back where they started at Aviano AB delivering for Immediate Response NATO exercise in Sweden
>>20833106, >>20833162, >>20833652 PF Europe (NATO exercise in Sweden deliveries), CONUS Activity
Going for refills from last time