US weekly jobless claims highest in more than eight months
(starting to unravel here in this data set because it’s been low especially with all the ongoing tech layoffs at start of year…and more ‘fodder’ for the coming reverse Operation Twist- NYFRB Chair Williams all but confirmed it but you had to read between the lines because he did not say how they would cut rates just that that’s what the next move would be >>20828534 pb Meanwhile the markets keep going up to not distract peeps-they only care when it drops Cap 3 is July FOMC meeting at FEDWATCH and the cut 25bp is slowly rising)
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level in more than eight months, further evidence that the labor market was cooling.
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, the most timely data on the economy's health, followed news last week that the economy added the fewest jobs in six months in April, while job openings dropped to a three-year low in March. Ebbing labor market momentum has put two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year back on the table.
"The labor market shows some signs of rebalancing with fewer job openings posted around the country, and now company layoffs are picking up, hinting at caution on the part of companies as they weigh the outlook for the second half of the year," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended May 4, the highest level since the end of last August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week. Claims broke above the 194,000-225,000 range, which had prevailed since the start of the year. Some of the rise last week was likely related to seasonal issues following the recently ended school spring breaks. Unadjusted claims shot up 19,690 to 209,324 last week, with filings in New York surging by 10,248. There were also sizeable increases in applications in California, Illinois, Indiana and Texas. Only Iowa reported a drop in claims in excess of 1,000.
The labor market is steadily rebalancing in the wake of 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the U.S. central bank since March 2022 to dampen demand in the overall economy. Financial markets expect the Fed to start its easing cycle in September.(But July meeting for a cut is creeping up to 30% and was much lower last week)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-more-than-expected-2024-05-09/
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Stocks, Bonds Gain After $25 Billion Treasury Sale: Markets Wrap
The stock market headed toward its highest level in a month, adding to a rebound that’s been fueled by speculation the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year. Equities rose as a jump in jobless claims reinforced bets on Fed policy easing — and extended gains after a $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds saw decent demand. The S&P 500 topped 5,200 — though trading volume was 20% below the average of the past 30 days. Gains in stocks have also been attributed to Commodity Trading Advisors — who surf momentum — being modeled to buy shares this week. The S&P 500 traded less than 1% away from its all-time high. Megacaps were mixed, with Amazon Inc. up and Nvidia Corp. down. The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.47% (cap 4)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield