MktFag Bidness roundup: 10-year Treasury yield extends decline after U.S. job-openings data,ECB pressing Ze Germans on CRE loans,Oil and muh Silver clobbered
(as mentioned Mr. Bond market is doing it’s expected heavy lifting and dropping yields-cuz they need to refinance an ASS TON of all those depreciated CRE assets among other things-later this year. The markets are not going “up” in the manner that would trigger these lower yields imo-at least not correlated from a historical perspective and there was also a head and shoulders top on the 10y although that left side not very defined-nevertheless it IS there-cap 2. Oil is cap 3 and muh Silver monkey hammered and told ya it wasn’t out of the woods yet and Today at 1:30pmEST is it’s weekly print day so it got hammered with the normal trick of dumping shit tons of contracts on the sell side as London did the heavy drop and then NYMEX opens and although it rose a little it got smershed again-down about 3.86% currently-cap 4 is daily chart-NO ONE trades like this and as far as I can tell the commercial Banks still cling to about a 600m/Oz (and it’s legacy from JP Moran too) short position-not all commercial but most is. Who in dafuq is ever going to take that from them? Answer: No one so the games continue as they have for almost 200 years)
Job openings fell more than expected in April to the lowest in more than three years, a sign that labor market conditions are softening in a manner that could help the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation.
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, were down 296,000 to 8.059 million on the last day of April, the lowest level since February 2021, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report.Data for March was revised slightly lower to show 8.355 million unfilled positions instead of the previously reported 8.488 million.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 8.355 million job openings in April. Vacancies peaked at a record 12.0 million in March 2022. The number of people quitting their jobs rose 98,000 to 3.507 million in April. Federal Reserve officials next week are expected to leave the U.S. central bank's policy rate in the same 5.25%-5.50% range where it has been since last July. They have said a rate cut will likely wait until data shows inflation, after a stronger-than-expected run during the first quarter, is headed back down toward their 2% goal.(Pay attention as the Fed already said, last year, that 3% is acceptable and the NYFED Chair Williams said the next “move” was to lower rates and he never said how-it’s behind done NOW via the proxy’s they have always used). Fed officials have said that only an unexpected and meaningful weakening of the labor market could trigger a rate cut sooner than otherwise.
They have so far welcomed signs of labor market cooling as a sign of rebalancing that eases upward pressure on prices.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-openings-fall-more-than-expected-april-2024-06-04/
ECB to Seek More CRE Loan Provisions From Some German Banks
The European Central Bank will soon push several German lenders to build up higher reserves against property loan defaults, in a move that would cut into their profits. Banks with large portfolios of commercial real estate loans such as Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG and some regional lenders jointly known as Landesbanken are one focus of the ECB’s effort, though it’s not clear which will ultimately face demands for higher provisions, people familiar with the matter said. The review is focused on firms that are heavily exposed to commercial real estate, rather than the country’s top banks, which have broader business models. The ECB has also scrutinized banks from other countries but German lenders will be among those most affected, the people said. An ECB spokesperson declined to comment. The ECB has long been pushing banks to shield themselves better against a downturn in global commercial real estate markets, especially in the U.S.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/ecb-to-demand-more-cre-loan-provisions-from-some-german-banks
And in how could you miss that head and shoulders top on WTI’s 6 month chart news…..it’s all about demand destruction. It’s working on taking out the February recent low of about $72.xx p/bl
Oil prices extend slump triggered by OPEC+ move to phase out some production cuts
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-extend-slump-triggered-by-opec-move-to-phase-out-some-production-cuts-86b63870
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver