Anonymous ID: 323c0c June 6, 2024, 9:22 a.m. No.20977712   šŸ—„ļø.is šŸ”—kun

Banks Tap Complex Mortgage Product to Fight Deposit Flight Risk

 

(In the continuing story of this will end poorly for the buyersā€¦..been here before and it ended poorly but donā€™t worry cuz the banksters say itā€™s different this time :I and when short term rates tank-via the coming NYFED reverse Operation Twist -they already said theyā€™re going to do it-these will be piles of shit because of the way they are structured to offload liability from the banks as they reset rates each month instead of fixedā€¦.wait this takes time to play out)

 

Banks are ramping up investments in a complex part of the mortgage bond market that offers shorter-term securities, as they cope with the growing risk of their losing deposits amid high rates.

Demand from banks is fueling sales of floating-rate, collateralized mortgage obligations, which are constructed from simpler mortgage securities.Overall, there were $25 billion of new CMO sales in April, the highest monthly figure in nearly three years.

 

That represented as much as 30% of all MBS that month ā€” the largest slice since 2014, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Analysts and market participants say banks have been a major driver of the increase. ā€œThe CMO machine is revving up,ā€ said Kirill Krylov, a strategist at Robert W Baird & Co. who focuses on mortgages.

Since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in 2022, banks have had a harder time hanging onto deposits. Higher rates translate to stronger returns on competing instruments, such as money market funds, and many depositors pulled money out of banks and plunged it into other higher-returning markets.

While banks have taken steps to retain deposits ā€” primarily by paying higher rates ā€” they are also reworking the asset side of their balance sheets by cutting holdings of longer-term bonds and boosting investments in shorter-term securities. The implosion of several regional lenders last year has also made banks acutely sensitive to the risks of owning longer-term debt.

There are around $800 billion of CMOs outstanding, according to Erica Adelberg, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. The share of new CMOs that have floating rates and are backed by Ginnie Mae has been hovering around the highest level in years, according to Oppenheimer & Co. data. Banks tend to prefer CMOs tied to Ginnie Mae, a guarantor of mortgage bonds that is part of the US government. Bank regulators assign those products risk weights of zero, and thatā€™s not expected to change under upcoming rules known as Basel III Endgame.

Mortgage-backed securities are a staple of bank balance sheets alongside Treasury bonds, and CMOs are just one type. But they differ from products that simply pass through income to investors, because CMOs can be customized to meet the needs of whoever is buying them. The securities are complicated,(No they arenā€™t but they want you to think that)but they are generally designed to lower risk for banks by, for example, cutting the maturities on the securities or carrying floating rates. Because they are built with government-backed mortgage bonds, investors donā€™t face the risk of losing principal if borrowers default. In that regard, they are very different from the kinds of securities that blew up bank balance sheets during the financial crisis.

 

The CMOs that banks have been gobbling up are often structured so that the rates reset each month, although there are limits as to how high or low the coupons can go.Ā ā€œBanks are trying to retain less sticky deposits, which are liabilities they treat as floating rate,ā€ said Nick Maciunas, a strategist at JPMorgan. ā€œThey need to match that on the asset side, and one way to do that is with floating rate CMOs, which have relatively short durations.ā€(hereā€™s the downside money portion at the end here)If rates go down significantly and mortgage borrowers start refinancing in large waves, the CMOs banks are investing in would become less attractive. But, for now, they offer an opportunity to minimize interest rate risk while also delivering attractive yields.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/banks-tap-complex-mortgage-product-to-fight-deposit-flight-risk-1.2082046

Anonymous ID: 323c0c June 6, 2024, 9:30 a.m. No.20977772   šŸ—„ļø.is šŸ”—kun   >>8266

PF: RAF REDARROWs T-45 Goshawks departed north

 

The Royal Air Force Aerobatic Team, the Red Arrows, is one of the world's premier aerobatic display teams. Representing the speed, agility and precision of the Royal Air Force, the team is the public face of the service. They assist in recruiting to the Armed Forces, act as ambassadors for the United Kingdom at home and overseas and promote the best of British.

 

Flying distinctive Hawk fast-jets, the team is made up of pilots, engineers and essential support staff with frontline, operational experience. Together, they demonstrate the excellence and capabilities of the Royal Air Force and the Serviceā€™s skilled, talented people. Often with their trademark Diamond Nine shape, and combination of close formations and precision flying, the Red Arrows have been displaying since 1965.

https://www.raf.mod.uk/display-teams/red-arrows/

Anonymous ID: 323c0c June 6, 2024, 9:59 a.m. No.20977970   šŸ—„ļø.is šŸ”—kun   >>8266

China Property Stocks Tumble Into Bear Market As Beijing's Bailout Fades

 

(It was ā€˜onlyā€™ about $41B directed at the buyers and said at time itā€™s not enough and theyā€™ll have to keep doing it-pissing against the wind and the Goldman douche thinks 20%drop is ā€œgood time to go longā€-good luck as this is just getting started and has a long way to go)

 

Three weeks after Beijing announced "historic" measures,Ā including the central bank providing 1 trillion yuan in extra funding, easing mortgage rules, and local governments planning to purchase apartments to clear excess supply, all in a bid to stabilize the worsening downturn inĀ residential property markets, faith in the housing recovery hasĀ faltered yet again, as property stocks have tumbled into a bear market.Ā 

Between mid-April and mid-May, investors hoped that more decisive government intervention in the world's second-biggest economy to shore up the property market would slow the descent. New measures were announced on May 17, and since then, after a 73% surge in theĀ Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developers, the index has tumbled into a bear market. TheĀ property market downturn has been ongoing since 2021. A series ofĀ developers have defaulted on debt, a plethora of idled construction sites, sliding home sales, high inventory levels, and waning confidence in theĀ Chinese population about an economic revival.Ā  a recent note titled 'China Unveils A Housing Market Bailout: Here's What's In It, And Why It Is Still Not Enough,' we cited a Goldman note that underscores the need for moreĀ housing easing efforts. Judging by the index above, that's potentially what investors are selling property stocks, emphasizing the urgency for further government intervention.

Here's more from Goldman:

Expect more housing easing efforts down the road ā€” especially on the demand side ā€” with funding and implementation as key for the effectiveness of the property rescue plan. On the funding, a recent Goldman analysis suggests any game-changing housing easing measures (including those for housing destocking) would require significantly more funding than available thus far, while many inland local governments remain financially stretched after the three years of zero-Covid policy and amid the prolonged property downturn. This will require a larger top-down funding scheme from the central government, beyond the RMB300bn relending quota. Moreover, strengthened fiscal discipline and financial regulation may dampen some officials' incentives for more concerted and forceful policy efforts. Upcoming policy events ā€” such as the July Politburo meeting, the Third Plenum, and ad hoc meetings/announcements by major authorities (e.g., the State Council, NDRC, MOF, MOHURD, PBOC, SASAC) ā€” will be worth monitoring closely, especially on solutions to address funding and implementation bottlenecks.

In a separate note,Ā Jeff Zhang, an analyst at Morningstar, wrote that the latest economic data in the country shows "there's not much improvement in property fundamentals," adding, "We may need to wait until the end of year to see a narrowing of declines or a rise in monthly sales as a result of the government's rescue package."

However, in a note, Goldman'sĀ Rich Privorotsky told clients Thursday morning, "China property has now dropped nearly 20% of its highs as stimulus/policy pivot hopes have faded (probably time to think about getting long again)."Ā 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-property-stocks-tumble-bear-market-beijings-bailout-fades