MOUND34 E6B Mercury back on shore from a run out to Bermuda

BRILL37 E6B Mercury SE from Tinker AFB

E-6B Mercury

https://www.key.aero/article/e-6b-mercury-more-doomsday-plane

Morocco AF FRV0925 G4 departed Athens earlier and back to Rabat

Now there are 3 C-130 Super Hercs heading east towards Athens, Greece

RMAF212/13/16 E from Rabat departure at and certainly heading to pick up something @ 1:35am

FROTH34 E6B Nercury off NorCal from Travis AFB

EIDER17 C17 Globey on ground at Phoenix Intl and dropping a ‘load’ for kneepads visit tomorrow

Offscreen

RCH4197 C17 Globey went to LAX so she’s going there too.

>>21051572, >>21069663 pb

Japan's Norinchukin Bank to sell $63bn of U.S. and European bonds/Muh Yen longs loading up

Norinchukin’s Second Investing Debacle Followed Clear Warning

The warning for Norinchukin from Japan’s financial regulator was clear — its deep reliance on foreign bond holdings was a risky strategy and needed to change. (this hasn’t mattered here yet but it will as the US system is sitting on half a trillion of unrealized losses….it will matter when (((they))) want it to)the time the bank reacted, it was too little and too late.(they knew all of this at least a month ago when they ‘estimated’ losses at $3b but last week it was moar than triple that at $10b see above link). The agricultural bank, known for its investments in CLOs, became cautious after suffering heavy losses during the financial crisis of 2009. It turned to the apparent safety of US Treasuries and didn’t quickly adjust its portfolio. It got burned once again. 

When sustained high interest rates in the US undermined its profitability, the bank was forced to dump its securities. It still didn’t fully grasp how bad its predicament was. Within the space of a month, its estimated loss exploded to 1.5 trillion yen ($9.4 billion), triple the original forecast. On Friday, Chief Executive Officer Kazuto Oku didn’t rule out that the losses could widen further. (count on this and it’s not the only one in this shape….it is systemic). Norinchukin had begun to diversify its securities portfolio after years of urging by the Financial Services Agency, according to Toshinori Yashiki, the FSA’s deputy director-general. 

“Given the sheer size of the portfolio, it wasn’t so easy to change,” he said. The bank has close engagement with the FSA and manages its finances in accordance with the agency’s supervision and guidance, a spokesperson said in an email. 

Norinchukin’s structure contributed to the debacle. The unlisted bank is owned by the country’s roughly 3,300 agricultural cooperatives, which provide it with both capital and deposits.  They also depend on returns from the bank because of limited lending opportunities in the countryside. Consequentially, Norinchukin’s loans accounts for far less of its assets than Japan’s main commercial banks.  The bank has assets of roughly 100 trillion yen, of which half are securities and less than 20% are loans. In contrast, Japan’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. has about 400 trillion yen in total assets. Its securities portfolio accounts for about 20% of that and lending is about 30%. The farming cooperatives long received an additional interest rate known as shoreikin from the bank. When Japan’s growth surged in the 1970s, deposits from individual members grew, leaving Norinchukin with a surplus of money. It broadened its purview from narrowly financing farmers to lending to other industries as well as investing in local capital markets and government bonds. With Japanese government bonds providing low returns and anemic lending, Norinchukin ventured overseas in the 1990s. The bank’s investment unit built out a global network of operations in New York, London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sydney and Amsterdam.After repeated losses on securitized products, Norinchukin piled into US treasuries and other foreign sovereign debt.

However, it funded the investments by borrowing dollars, whose costs soon exceeded the amount that it was earning in interest, making the strategy unsustainable.

Norinchukin was not alone in being hit by a surge in dollar funding costs. Other banks and insurers also had losses on their foreign bonds and they dumped them in the past two years after the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes began in 2022.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/norinchukin-s-second-investing-debacle-followed-clear-warning-1.2088494

>>21075018

Economic Schedule-Week of June 23, 2024-Credit news

Keep an eye on that Yen as at this level the longs have piled in waiting for the BoJ to smack it. Also the continued hilarity of Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW gets another update-Latest estimate: 3.0 percent – June 20, 2024

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 27.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

>>21069663, >>21069793, >>21069812, >>21069910, >>21069933 pb Japan’s Retail Investors Eye Risky Wagers on Yen Intervention

The key reports this week are May New Home sales, the third estimate of Q1 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for May and the April Case-Shiller house price index. For manufacturing, the June Dallas, Kansas City and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

• Monday, June 24th -

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

• Tuesday, June 25th -

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April.

The National index was up 6.5% year-over-year in March.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for May 2024.

• Wednesday, June 26th -

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.(rates just under 7% so still suckage here-people still have to move by no choice but no one is going to swap a 3-4% mortgage for 7% by choice)

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 650 thousand SAAR, up from 634 thousand in April.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for May (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).(ded meat)

• Thursday, June 27th -

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, up from 238 thousand last week.(way too much noise here and being suppressed imo)

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.3% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the second estimate of a 1.3% increase.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in the index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for June. 

• Friday, June 28th -

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. 

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June). 

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-23-2024.html

Some cracks appearing here and will only get worse

Credit’s Strong Run Stumbles for First Time This Year

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/credit-s-strong-run-stumbles-for-first-time-this-year-1.2088272

Oops….they believed the bullshit

Hedge Funds' Bullish Copper Bets Run Into China's Slowdown

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/hedge-funds-bullish-copper-bets-run-into-china-s-slowdown-1.2088468

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

>>21075229

Ty

>>21075228

Evenin’

Howza?

Fuggen heat came yesterday