If this were any other candidate, I'd be saying J.D. Vance is a lock, because he comes from Ohio, a crucial state in the Electoral College count.
If a Republican fails to win Ohio, they usually lose the entire race.
That being said, I have learned from experience, that 45/47 does not make choices only based on political advice, and his choice will have a lot to do with whom he feels has shown the greatest loyalty and support in the past. So, I lean toward Vance as the VP choice, but will not rule out the other two.
I hope Trump factors in the ability for the VP choice to become heir apparent for MAGA. MAGA needs to go on post Trump.