Anonymous ID: 740719 July 11, 2024, 6:19 a.m. No.21178364   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>8368 >>8517 >>8722 >>8789 >>8831 >>8837 >>8843 >>8858 >>8964

>>21166651 pb

SAM341 C40B departed Doha, Qatar after arriving from Cairo Intl and then Tel Aviv depart on 0709 left Cyprus earlier on Tuesday

Heading to Shannon for a fuel stop.

 

Yesterday

Netanyahu meets McGurk, stands firm on red lines for hostage deal

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/netanyahu-meets-mcgurk-stands-firm-on-red-lines-for-hostage-deal/ar-BB1pKIvX

 

From 0709

Egypt, Qatar, US, Israel officials convene in Doha for Gaza cease-fire talks

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/07/egypt-qatar-us-israel-officials-convene-doha-gaza-cease-fire-talks#ixzz8fg2ljmTh

 

This is eitherC_A Director Burns or Brett McGurk.

I’m guessing it’s the latter as wasn’t sure who but knew it was in support of these “negotiations”.

Anonymous ID: 740719 July 11, 2024, 6:58 a.m. No.21178530   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>8532 >>8789 >>8831 >>8837 >>8843 >>8858 >>8964

Post-CPI rally in Treasurys sends 2-year yield toward lowest level since March

 

(Imagine that…yields drop to signal the coming rate cuts(s) as Mr. Bond tells Jerry at the FOMC exactly wut to do…and they do it)

 

Treasurys aggressively rallied Thursday morning, sending yields tumbling, after June’s consumer-price index showed more signs of cooling inflation and bolstered the market’s expectation for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut by September.

 

  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD02Y was at 4.511%, down 11.9 basis points from 4.630% on Wednesday.

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y fell 9.2 basis points to 4.188%, from 4.280% on Thursday.

  • The yield on the 30-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD30Y declined 6.8 basis points to 4.402%, from 4.470% on Thursday.

 

In data released on Thursday, June’s consumer-price index fell 0.1% after no change in May. It was the first drop since May 2020. The 12-month rate of inflation also slowed to 3% from 3.3%, matching the lowest level since April 2021. The narrower core CPI rate, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.1% for the second month in row. On a 12-month basis, the core rate slowed to 3.3% from 3.4%. Separately, initial jobless-benefit claims fell by 17,000 to 222,000 in the week that ended on July 6. That’s the lowest level since May and below economists’ expectations. Fed-funds-futures traders now see a 79.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in an increment of a quarter of a percentage point by September, up from a 69.7% chance on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-hold-mostly-steady-as-traders-wait-for-cpi-data-307c741d

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in June; Core CPI increased 0.1%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Anonymous ID: 740719 July 11, 2024, 7:17 a.m. No.21178575   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>8789 >>8831 >>8837 >>8843 >>8858 >>8964

>>21178561

Dollar drops, yen surges as consumer prices fall in June

 

The dollar dropped on Thursday after data showed that headline consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the Japanese yen at one point gaining more than 2% as traders priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. The sharp gain in the yen increased speculation that the Bank of Japan may be intervening to shore up the currency, which fell to a 38-year low against the greenback last week. The yen has suffered from a wide interest rate differential with the United States and positions betting on further losses in the Japanese currency versus the dollar "have piled up", Englander said. But today's CPI data indicates that a September rate cut is "highly probable", and so "that rate differential story erodes," he said.

Traders are now pricing in a 91% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A second cut is also likely by December. The dollar index was last down 0.66% at 104.28 and got as low as 104.07, the lowest since June 7.

Against the yen , the dollar fell 1.95% to 158.49 and got as low as 157.4, the weakest since June 17.

The euro gained 0.45% to $1.088 and reached $1.090, the highest since June 7.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-adrift-ahead-us-inflation-test-sterling-firms-2024-07-11/

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency

Anonymous ID: 740719 July 11, 2024, 7:47 a.m. No.21178693   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>8768 >>8831 >>8837 >>8843 >>8858

>>21178675

They BoJ ain’t doing shit and just jawbone.

They won’t stop buying bonds and keep saying they will and even if they raise rates (doubt it) it’s 10bp so nuffin.

They coming CRE refinance shit pile means Jerry and the boys will make a surprise announcement later this year.

One thing for sure the BoJ did not sell USTs to do this so they have a standing facility at NYFed to use straight cash like last April/May.