An analysis detailing remnants of Dade Phelan's support base in the Texas House.

Analysis: This is Where the Speaker Race is Now

Brandon Waltens • August 1, 2024 • Texas Scorecard

"In conversations with multiple Austin sources, we estimate around 20 members continue to tell their colleagues that they support Dade Phelan. It is unclear how many of these members are willing to defy the GOP caucus and cut a deal with the Democrats on the floor of the Texas House. With most of Phelan’s supporters informing their colleagues that they won’t go to the floor with him, insiders put that number closer to seven.

Some of Phelan’s own chairmen have publicly come out against him, including Oliverson, Briscoe Cain, and J.M. Lozano.

Other chairmen quietly say they don’t see a path for him and that there will likely be a change. The chairmen who insiders feel are still staunchly in Dade’s camp are:

Greg Bonnen

Dustin Burrows

Terry Wilson

Brooks Landgraf

Will Metcalf

Angie Chen Button

Ken King

Giovanni Capriglione

Brad Buckley

Drew Darby

Morgan Meyer

Many members believe that Burrows and Bonnen are trying to find a candidate to replace Phelan while maintaining their power. Burrows chairs the powerful Calendars Committee, and Bonnen chairs the budget-writing Appropriations Committee. Right now, they seem to be leaning toward supporting Buckley for a potential candidacy while also considering James Frank, a long-rumored potential speaker, may be willing to keep them in top-tier positions if given the gavel.

The Republican caucus vote will take place during their meeting in December. The official vote for Speaker will occur on the first day of the new legislative session, January 14, 2025."

https://texasscorecard.com/state/analysis-this-is-where-the-speaker-race-is-now/