Ilhan Omar could be third Squad member to lose.
Today is election day in CT, MN, VT and WI. 6 primaries to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin
Rep. Ilhan Omar is the latest Squad member to face a serious challenger.
Geoffrey Skelley via five thirty eight logo
August 12, 2024, 2:42 PM
It's been a busy few days for politics in the Midwest. Last Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on the Democratic ticket, the fourth time in the last 60 years that a Minnesotan will be the Democratic vice presidential nominee. And this week, Minnesota and Wisconsin will hold primaries for federal and state legislative offices, dominating the slate of primaries happening on Aug. 13 (Connecticut and Vermont also have primaries but don't have any major contests).
Paul Bunyan's Axe won't be on the menu,but six high-profile primaries for U.S. Senate and House in Minnesota and Wisconsin feature yet another progressive incumbent whose views on Israel have helped spark a primary challenge, intraparty conflicts between establishment-inclined and insurgent-minded Republicans and a smattering of controversy as a cherry on top.
Minnesota Races to watch: U.S. Senate; 2nd, 5th and 7th congressional districts Polls close: 9 p.m. Eastern
In the day's most-watched race, Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar faces a primary challenge from former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels in the solidly blue 5th District.Omar fended off Samuels by just 2 percentage points in 2022, and the rematch is also part of a larger intraparty conflict over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. As a member of The Squad, an informal group of progressive House Democrats, Omar has been a prominent critic of Israel's policies. Such views have already played a role in the primary defeats of two Squad members in 2024: Pro-Israel groups, particularly United Democracy Project — a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee — spent heavily to oust New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman in June and Missouri Rep. Cori Bush last week.
However, Omar holds a stronger position than she did in 2022. For one thing, she's built up a much larger monetary edge by raising $6.8 million as of July 24 — almost three times as much as she'd raised in 2022 — which is far more than the $1.4 million Samuels has brought in. Samuels has also received almost no outside spending support, whereas a group partially funded by AIPAC's super PAC spent $625,000 to back him in 2022. By comparison, Omar has received about $517,000 in outside support, according to OpenSecrets. Additionally, AIPAC and other major pro-Israel groups haven't endorsed Samuels or served as conduits for individual contributors to donate to his campaign, as they did for the two challengers who defeated Bowman and Bush.
Omar has used her financial advantage to full effect, outspending Samuels nearly six-to-one, compared with around two-to-one last time. Whereas she didn't run any TV ads in 2022, Omar is taking Samuels much more seriously this time by spending $2.6 million on spots to just $32,000 by Samuels, according to AdImpact. The little polling we've seen also points to an Omar primary win: The only recent survey was a poll conducted on behalf of Omar's campaign in late July by Lake Research Partners that found her ahead of Samuels 60 percent to 33 percent. Still, Samuels did get a late surge in contributions to his campaign, a reminder of why we're keeping an eye on this contest.
In Minnesota's race for Senate, Republicans might go for a more controversial choice as the party's nominee, potentially curtailing their already-meager chances of defeatingDemocratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar. At the state party's convention in May, GOP delegates surprisingly endorsed Royce White, a former professional basketball player and onetime Black Lives Matter activist who has transformed into a populist, pro-Trump figure. White has embraced various conspiracy theories while using antisemitic, misogynistic and homophobic language. (Anons in MN vote for Royce White, backed by Republicans, Bannon and others, spread the word, get rid of Klobuchar)
Party activists preferred White over former U.S. Navy intelligence officer Joe Fraser, who looked like a potential favorite, but it remains to be seen whom the larger primary electorate will back. Fraser originally planned to "abide" by the party's endorsement — local parlance for a candidate withdrawing if someone else is endorsed — but he decided to run in the primary due to White's controversies and concerns among party leaders about White's ability to compete with Klobuchar.
(long article read the rest at link)
https://abcnews.go.com/538/6-primaries-watch-minnesota-wisconsin/story?id=112720356