Kamala Harris Suffers Triple Polling Blow Before DNC StartsPA

Published Aug 19, 2024 at 4:12 AM EDT

Vice President Kamala Harris has suffered a triple blow after two recently released surveys put her behind Donald Trump in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, while a third showed her trailing the Republican presidential candidate at the national level.

Polls of likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted by Cygnal and Emerson College both gave Trump a 1 point lead in the battleground state, which comes with 19 Electoral College votes. Separately, a Napolitan News Service survey gave the former president a 1 point advantage nationally.

Harris quickly established herself as the Democrats' presumptive presidential nominee after Joe Biden announced he was stepping down from the race and offered her his endorsement, on July 21. This initially resulted in a clear Democratic poll boost with Harris outperforming Trump in more than a dozen national surveys, and becoming the favorite to win in November with a number of leading bookmakers.

Between August 12 and 14, RMG Research polled 2,708 likely voters across the United States for Napolitan News Service, which found Trump leading Harris by 46 percent to 45 percent. When undecided voters leaning one way were included, Trump's margin extended to 49 percent against 47 percent, compared to the last RMG poll a week ago, which put both candidates on 49 percent.

A Cygnal poll of 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania, conducted on August 14-15, found 44 percent would back Trump in a presidential contest versus 43 percent for Harris and 5 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump increased his polling by 2 points since the last Cygnal survey in July, while Kennedy saw his support fall by 4 points.

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In better news for the Democrats, the survey gave incumbent Senator Bob Casey a 46 percent vs 42 percent lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick. However, it also found Casey underperformed a generic Democratic Senate candidate by 2 points with all voters, and 8 percent with Democratic supporters.

Emerson College surveyed 1,000 likely voters in Pennsylvania for RealClearPennsylvania, on August 13 and 14. It found Trump had a 1 point lead with 49 percent of the vote against 48 percent for Harris. This extended to 51 percent against 49 percent once undecided voters who lean one way were allocated to that candidate. When Kennedy was included, Harris and Trump were tied on 47 percent, with the independent candidate on 3 percent.

The survey found voters aged under 40 backed Harris over Trump by 61 percent against 36 percent, while the Republican nominee's strongest lead was with those aged 50-69, where he led by 57 percent to 40 percent. Trump led among protestant voters by 58 percent to 40 percent, and Catholic voters with 60 percent against 39 percent. Harris enjoyed a 84 percent vs 13 percent advantage among atheist and agnostic voters, along with a 56 percent to 39 percent lead for those with no particular religious affiliation.

Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment on Monday by email outside of regular office hours.

The latest The New York Times/Siena College survey, of 1,973 likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, showed a 35 point gender gap between support for Trump and Harris. Among men, the Republican lead by 14 points, while with women the vice president enjoyed a 21 point lead. If elected in November, Harris would become the first female president in U.S. history. The survey was conducted between August 5 and 9.

From Monday to Thursday, the Democratic National Convention will take place at the United Center Arena in Chicago. The event is expected to be heavily protested by pro-Palestinian demonstrators.

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-suffers-triple-polling-blow-before-dnc-convention-1940947

https://x.com/davidchapman141/status/1825515323807666398

Citizen Free Press

@CitizenFreePres

The protest fun is already beginning at DNC in chicago.

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=WEF releasing their plans: 4 global risks to look out for in the post-pandemic era. 1/2==

Aug 19, 2024

The post-pandemic era is being shaped by heightened global risk and unpredictable shock events.

Power is dispersing in a post-superpower era, while governments struggle with a recurrent crisis of political legitimacy worldwide.

The lingering pandemic mental health crisis is being exacerbated by climate and AI.

Since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of COVID-19’s emergency phase last May, other threats have escalated – more variants, global wars, climate events, tech challenges, terrorist activity on Western soil and even a new public health emergency of international concern called mpox. But what else may be on the horizon?

The following analysis—which is based on a multi-year prediction project with graduate students at New York University and experts at crowdsourced consultancy Wikistrat, where I’m a lead analyst—details the global risk trends to watch this decade.

1.Power disperses in a post-superpower era

Most citizens would agree that our community of world leaders, including the G7 and G20, largely fell short in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the pandemic eased, the reality is we haven’t had enduring global leadership on much, and it’s hard to imagine that changing soon. This is partly because superpowers are terribly burdened with global wars and domestic challenges.

These powers will, of course, still be relevant, compete and attempt to 'lead' everywhere from space to AI and oil. But look for other actors to step up more to fill the leadership void, including 'geopolitical swing states' leveraging rare earth minerals (like Ghana) to reduce the dominance of superpowers; smaller states (e.g. Scotland) using climate funding as a foreign policy tool; the Global South moving away from trading in the US dollar, even attempting a new blockchain payment system; and tech firms (and leaders) driving change largely unchecked. Frankly, we’ve noted this trend before but this may be the official start of a post-superpower era shaped increasingly – and unpredictably – by other players, regardless of the outcome of the US election. The nature of power will continue to evolve in our post-pandemic era.

2.A big election year won’t stop our recurrent crisis of political legitimacy

Everyone has rightly noted how 2024 is the biggest election year in history with around half the world going to the polls. This, of course, could still be complicated by AI disinformation, cyber threats or simply accusations of rigging (as already seen in countries like Bangladesh, Venezuela and the US).

Yet, the larger issue is whether these elections will even make a tangible difference in local and global change; widespread government distrust in most political systems has not abated in our post-pandemic era. Let’s not forget democracy—declared the sole surviving source of political legitimacy by the US hegemon at the end of the Cold War—has been in decline globally for 18 consecutive years, according to Freedom House.

Anti-government unrest has recurred everywhere since the Arab Spring, representing an enduring global crisis of political legitimacy. People have fought back in all political systems, driven by a conviction that there must be a better, more effective way to govern. In most countries, even after their vote, citizens will continue to challenge their leaders, questioning whether they have the capacity to tackle our many post-pandemic risks.

3.A more complex global mental health crisis

The pandemic was the "greatest threat to mental health since the Second World War,” according to the WHO. Many of us are still struggling to catch up in our personal and professional lives. Yet, other challenges to post-pandemic mental health are increasing, thanks to climate change and AI.

First, therapists say climate change is generating a 'new type of anxiety,' leading to a sense of alienation that makes it hard to function and even suicide. This 'eco-anxiety' is likely to escalate as governments fail to transition away from fossil fuels fast enough. So, expect more extreme climate events that further exacerbate our mental health, especially for growing numbers of climate refugees….

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/08/4-global-risks-to-look-out-for-in-the-post-pandemic-era/

Imran Khan applies to be uni chancellor from jail

10 hours ago

Caroline Davies

Pakistan correspondent

Curtis Lancaster

Mr Khan studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford’s Keble College

Imran Khan, Pakistan’s jailed former prime minister, appears to be eyeing up a new role from behind bars – that of Oxford University chancellor.

Mr Khan, who has been in prison for more than a year on charges he says are politically motivated, submitted his application ahead of the deadline on Sunday night, his adviser confirmed on X.

The one-time cricket star is already an honorary fellow of Oxford’s Keble College, where he studied philosophy, politics and economics (PPE) in 1972.

The University of Oxford gave no comment about the specific application and will not confirm the candidates for the position until early October with voting to be held online on 28 October.

Previously candidates were required to be nominated by 50 members of the University’s Convocation.

The Oxford chancellor’s role is largely ceremonial and is voted for by graduates of the university who have had their degree conferred provided they have registered to vote and members of the university’s congregations including academic staff.

Candidates cannot be current students, employees of the University or candidates to political office.

Christopher Patten is the outgoing chancellor, who has held the position since 2003.

Lord Patten, 80, was the last Governor of Hong Kong from 1992 to 1997 and chairman of the Conservative Party from 1990 to 1992.

The former PM behind bars

Imran Khan was jailed on 5 August for failing to correctly declare the sale of state gifts.

Cases against the former politician mounted and the 71-year-old was given three long prison sentences, but all of these have now fallen away.

A United Nations panel declared his detention was arbitrary but Mr Khan remains in jail with new cases against his name.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c33n5dx20nno