Why climate change models are wrong, according to bombshell study

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13765511/Why-climate-change-models-wrong-according-study-IPCC-UN.html

A new analysis shows the 'worst case scenario' for Antarctica's melting glaciers is much less severe than the United Nation's current estimates.

The UN's prediction that the melting of Antarctica's so-called 'Doomsday' glaciers could alone raise global sea levels two feet before the year 2100 has shaped global climate policy since at least 2016, when the estimate was first introduced.

The model — which the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does admit is 'low likelihood' — projects this melt could raise sea levels up 50-ft by 2300.

But three new, more sophisticated climate models, produced with the backing of the National Science Foundation, now call this UN glacier model 'extreme' and 'unlikely.'

More realistic new scenarios, revealed by these new 'ice melt' simulations, predict the glaciers are not likely to break apart in the feared, cascading chain-reaction.

'We're not reporting that the Antarctic is safe and that sea-level rise isn't going to continue,' study co-author and earth sciences professor Mathieu Morlighem said.

'All of our projections show a rapid retreat of the ice sheet,' he emphasized.

What Morlighem and his co-authors did do was focus their modeling on the polar continent's 'Doomsday Glacier,' the Thwaites Glacier: a 75-mile-wide, heavily monitored plateau of ice whose collapse could swell oceans catastrophically.

What they hoped to test is whether or not the disappearance of massive portions of this glacier's floating outermost edge, its ice shelf, could trigger a the sliding of Antarctica's land-locked ice into the ocean — where it would raise sea levels rapidly.

'High-end projections,' like IPCC's worst case scenario, Morlighem said, 'are important for coastal planning and we want them to be accurate in terms of physics.'

A dramatically high and unlikely scenario, in other words, could lead a city council in Miami to waste taxpayer money on sea walls that are much higher than needed.

'These projections are actually changing people's lives,' Morlighem noted.