Dave Chappelle - The Truth Behind Police Profiling
3:21
https://youtu.be/_bpN3rWkxx0
Dave Chappelle - Super Heroes Are Bad Role Models
5:27
https://youtu.be/zNyqYOUxBrY
Legendary strategist James Carville on why Trump’s poll numbers are lulling Dems into a false sense of security
By Published Aug. 25, 2024.
(It's called the HRC effect, they are drinking the lemonade fed to them, when it's really piss). 1/2==
Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville cautioned Democrats against falling into a false sense of security as polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading the race against former President Donald Trump.
Echoing many of the private concerns of Harris’ allies who feel the polls are a bit more “rosy” than the reality,Carville stressed on “Real Time With Bill Maher” that she will have to work harder to win the Electoral College.(cheat hard)
“I challenge Democrats with some caution here. First of all, most want to say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College.So when you see a poll that says we two up. Well, that’s actually, you’re one down if the poll is correct,” Carville said.
“The other thing is Trump traditionally, when he’s on the ballot, chronically under-polls,” Carville added.
Harris is currently polling ahead of Trump nationally by less than two points, according to a Real Clear Politics Average, however, the former president is leading in several battleground swing states. The polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has Harris leading by 3.6 percentage points.
Traditionally, with Trump on the ballot… Democrats say, ‘Oh James, you’re a Debbie Downer.’ I’m not. I’m just telling you, you got to win by three,” the strategist added.
In late August 2020, national polls predicted that President Biden was up by 9 points over Trump — but he won by just 4.4 percentage points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up by 6.5 points in polls. She famously won the popular vote by 2 points — but lost the Electoral College.
Perhaps most alarmingly for Democrats, back in 2020, Trump outperformed polling in most battleground states including by 4.6 points ahead of RCP’s aggregate in Wisconsin, three points in Michigan, and 1.3 points in Pennsylvania.
Additionally, RCP’s polling aggregate of battleground states — which doesn’t allow for tossups — currently has Trump winning all up but one battleground state, netting him an Electoral College victory. However, pollsters have long stressed that polls within the margin of error could go either way.
Harris has billed herself as the “underdog” in the race. Trump previously told The Post that, “she should be the underdog because she did such a bad job,” when pressed about whether she actually is trailing him.
Chauncey McLean, president of Future Forward, a Harris-aligned Super PAC publicly statedher firm’s own internal polling is “far less rosy” than many of the public polls out there.
“It’s still a very tough race, and that feels consistent with everything we know,” Margie Omero, who works at the Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies, told Politico.
https://nypost.com/2024/08/25/us-news/james-carville-warns-kamala-harris-polls-arent-as-good-as-they-look/
2/2
Other recent polls have shown a slight edge for the former president, including one done Friday by Rasmussen Reports that had Trump ahead 49% to 46%.
The polling numbers are expected to shift once again after independent Robert F. Kennedy, who was polling at 4% according to Rasmussen, dropped out of the race on Friday and endorsed Trump.
While Rasmussen’s findings are an outlier among recent national polling, the conservative-leaning firm was among the closest firms to the final result in 2016.
Harris has been keen to avoid making the same mistakes that Hillary Clinton did in the 2016 cycle when she faced off against Trump and infamously ignored Michigan and Wisconsin during the general election cycle.
She’s also largely eschewed talk of gender politics like Clinton, and worked to maintain a comparatively brisk itinerary in the swing states.
Democrats have been largely pleased with Harris’ public attitude of casting herself as the underdog and taking the threat of Trump seriously. (They disregard how MAGA will not share their choice)
Carville is widely credited for his role in former President Bill Clinton’s victorious 1992 presidential bid.
https://nypost.com/2024/08/25/us-news/james-carville-warns-kamala-harris-polls-arent-as-good-as-they-look/
Many Gen Z Men Feel Left Behind. Some See Trump as an Answer.
Men under 30 are much more likely to support Donald Trump than women their age. It’s a far bigger gender gap than in older generations. (Duh!!)
Claire Cain Miller
Claire Cain Miller called back eight young men who had told Times/Siena pollsters that they were planning to vote for Donald Trump.
Aug. 24, 2024
Updated 8:13 a.m. ET
In some ways, this presidential election has become a referendum on gender roles — and the generation with the biggest difference in opinion between male and female voters is Generation Z.
On one side are young women, who as a group are very liberal, and who have been politically galvanized by gender bombshells like #MeToo, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris.
On the other are young men, some of whom feel that rapidly changing gender roles have left them behind socially and economically, and see former President Donald J. Trump as a champion of traditional manhood.
When President Biden was still in the race, men ages 18 to 29 favored Mr. Trump by an average of 11 percentage points, while young women favored Mr. Biden by 28 points, according to four national New York Times/Siena College polls conducted from last December to June. That was a 39-point gender gap — far exceeding that of any older generation.
And in Times/Siena polls of six swing states this month — taken after Ms. Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee — young men favored Mr. Trump by 13 points, while young women favored Ms. Harris by 38 points, a 51-point gap. (Our companion article on the shift among young women is here.)
Mr. Trump’s message has been particularly resonant for young men without college degrees and young men of color. Among men under 30 who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, those who were sticking with him in swing-state polls in May were more likely to be white and have college degrees than those shifting to Mr. Trump.
“Economically they’re getting shafted, politically they’re getting shafted, culturally no one’s looking out for them,” said Daniel A. Cox, director of the Survey Center on American Life at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, who has written about the youth gender gap. “They’re drawn to his message, his persona, the unapologetic machismo he tries to exude.”
Gen Z men are not making a rightward shift en masse, and they are still somewhat more likely to identify as Democratic than Republican, 30 percent to 24 percent, according to data from P.R.R.I., a public opinion research firm (the rest are independents). Majorities of them support abortion rights and same-sex marriage, and even young men voting Republican are not necessarily socially conservative…..
https://archive.fo/qOLB3
(This is how you know marxist communists are freaking out it's not working on men.)