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“We have got to get somebody in the White House that has been there, knows our economy, knows what a bad economy looks like, and will get us where we need to go,” Signa Griffin, who described herself as a Black Trump supporter living in Philadelphia, told me.
Sharita White, anotherBlack voter planning to support Trump, said not enough people want to admit how much better life was when Trump was president. “They talk so bad about him, but they forgot what happened,” she said. “I don’t know too much about politics, but the only thing I know, my income changed, and if I need that man to get in here to fix my income, I’m all down.”
Polling suggests Hispanic and Asian Americanvoters are feeling economic concerns especially keenly, and Hispanic voters in particular seem primed for an economic pitch from Trump:More than half said they trusted Trump over Biden to “make good decisions about economic policy,” according to research conducted by the Pew Research Center this summer. It was the topic on which Trump had the biggest advantage.
Of course, Trump has long inflated his economic record and conveniently ignores the economic devastation he presided over during the Covid-19 pandemic and recession. That deflection provides an additional point that further complicates the blame Biden has received on the economy. Presidents, in general, have limited ability to control the economy (or inflation), given the independence of the Federal Reserve and how interconnected our economy is with the world at large. But sour perceptions still helped drag down Biden’s approval rating and electoral support as a candidate.
And it hasn’t stopped Trump from making a big deal about the opportunities his administration secured for minority-owned small businesses — he talks about cutting regulations, providing emergency assistance during the pandemic, and keeping unemployment low.
All of this resonates with Hispanic and Asian American communities, James Zarsadiaz, a professor of history and researcher on conservatism at the University of San Francisco, told me. “As [these entrepreneurs] feel the punch of inflation, fees, taxes to run a business in very expensive metro areas, the GOP is starting to look more attractive to them again because they’re seen as the party on the side of the small-business owner, as opposed to the Democrats who are seen as the party of protecting workers.”
Once again, things have changed since Harris became the nominee, and polls specifically focusing on economic sentiment have tracked an improving national mood and growing trust in Harris’s ability to handle economic issues. But Trump is still benefiting from a sense of nostalgia and has tried his best to tie Harris to Biden’s economic record, asking voters routinely if they are better off today than they were four years ago.
Theory 2: Direct appeals to nonwhite men
The political realignment of women voters has been one of the major stories of 2024; the gender gap in American politics exploded in 2016, took a break in 2020, and seems like it’s about to be historic in 2024, with a huge pro-Democrat shift among women. At the same time, though,the rightward drift of men, including men of color, is a quiet undercurrent that may end up explaining what happened if Trump wins in November.
Plenty of theories have been raised in the past about what kind of appeal Trump might have specifically to men and to men of color: Does his businessman persona resonate with upwardly mobile, financially aspirational men? Is there a “macho” appeal there for Hispanic men? Could his gritty, outsider, everyman posturing and brash rhetoric resonate with Black and Latino men, particularly those living in traditionally Democratic cities?
All of those could play a factor, but more significantly, pre-Harris, Trump’s campaign and allies doubled down on reaching out to men, especially men of color, as part of an effort to exploit the growing gender gap and fuel disillusionment with Democrats.
It’s the “Jamal and Enrique” strategy that the Trump campaign appears to believe in, that “for every Karen we lose, we’re going to win a Jamal and an Enrique,” as Trump allies explained it to the Atlantic’s Tim Alberta in July.That includes speaking to, campaigning with, and getting endorsements from TikTok stars, sportspersonalities, and popular Black and Latin musicians who have large young male audiences.
https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/373535/3-theories-gop-donald-trump-nonwhite-voters-hispanic-black-latino-asian