>>21680699

Models predicting a storm genesis in the next 5 days and that models track solution. The lines are the number of models, not storms, but it is interesting that around 9 models are seeing another N or N central FL landfall from a Caribbean born system starting within the 120 hours.

https://www.trackthetropics.com/

emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/genprob.aeperts.2024092900.altg.000_120.png

>>21680742

These runs are almost 24 hours old, a new set should drop in the next couple of hours.

That said, this looks a lot like yesterdays and even a couple days ago running individual models, several were putting a low (storm) on this same basic pattern of motion. Not good when they agree on a bad portents.