Scoop: Rep. Elissa Slotkin warns Harris is "underwater" in MichiganSept. 29, 2024

Stef W. Kight

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) warned donors last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign shows Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in Michigan, according to a video clip obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: Winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is Harris' simplest path to victory. If former President Trump sweeps the Sun Belt, he'd only need to pick off one of those Blue Wall states to win the election.

• FiveThirtyEight's average of polls has Harris up by about 2.4 points in Michigan. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll has her up by just one.

• Michigan is also a top pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans, with millions of dollarsnow flooding the race between Slotkin and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.).

What she's saying: "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan," Slotkin said during a virtual fundraiser on Wednesday with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), according to a recording.

• "We have her underwater in our polling," Slotkin added.

• Spokespeople for Slotkin's campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Between the lines: It's not unusual for campaigns to paint themselves as the polling underdog as a fundraising tactic.

• RCP's polling average has Slotkin up 48% to 43%, and the recent NYT/Siena poll has her up by five points. Republicans have also raised alarm about Democrats' 2:1 money advantage in the state.

• But there are some signs the Senate race could be tightening — Republican internal polling shows the candidates are statistically tied, according to a source familiar with the matter.

• Senate races in ruby-red Ohio and Montana have been getting more money and attention, but aRepublican win in Michigan would be a major upset and virtually guarantee a GOP majority.

(Maybe FEMA could give her a raft!)

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/29/michigan-senate-race-slotkin-harris