Anonymous ID: 55aa9f Oct. 3, 2024, 9:16 a.m. No.21701910   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>1930 >>2028 >>2388 >>2559 >>2625

Major X9 flare, largest of this solar cycle erupted about 4 hours ago.

 

Radio emissions of both Type II and IV (large CME) including a rare Castelli U-Burst signature have been detected.

 

Coronagraphs are now indicating a full-halo beginning to be visible. The source of the flare appears to be AR3842 again and it was almost exactly facing earth. Full halo CMEs are ones aimed at observation point, in this case, near Earth geosynchronous orbit solar observatories.

 

We should begin to receive the fainter CME from the X7 event a couple days later today EDT…or early 10/4 UTC. Aurora should be visible starting tonight and likely for some time, perhaps days.

 

Too early to tell when today's impulsive burst CME will arrive, but radio and early visible observation seem to indicate that it was much more massive than the X7's and slower moving.

 

Monitoring this, things could get interesting in a few days. Not scary, just interesting, expect stronger and lower latitide aurora as is the norm lately and maybe some electromagnetic disturbances in the higher latitudes when it gets here. Tonights incoming aurora are from the X7 precursor…this should arrive somewhat later by a day or two. Estimations are being calculated. The sun is giving us a show…perhaps a warning. It is capable of much, much more.

 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings

 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

 

https://www.solarham.com/index.htm

 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard

Anonymous ID: 55aa9f Oct. 3, 2024, 9:28 a.m. No.21701982   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>1988 >>1992 >>1993 >>2092

>>21701930

Anything's possible, but while this seems to be launching something at us, the really big CMEs of the past were usually preceded by an almost immediate snowy white out of the coronagraph cameras by relativistic massive particles and I'm not seeing that on this one. That said, if the radio obs and visible coronagraphs are any indication, something energetic is heading directly our way.

>https://www.solarham.com/index.htm

Anonymous ID: 55aa9f Oct. 3, 2024, 9:36 a.m. No.21702035   🗄️.is 🔗kun

>>21701992

About a day and half after the one later today. So about 40 - 48 hours. Arrival solutions are being calculated and both NASA and NOAA will publish Enlil spirals with their best guesses. Space weather is still weather, so there's an element of best-guesswork going on. It's getting better, but it not magic yet, but won't be long before it too is magic.

Anonymous ID: 55aa9f Oct. 3, 2024, 10:05 a.m. No.21702187   🗄️.is 🔗kun

>>21702092

I doubt it. Much more likely to be a problem with long wires like power transmission lines, bonded railroad lines, LF antennas, etc…

 

Could it? Sure, but it doesn't appear so atm. We'll see when the professionals publish their estimates in the next hours.