Tropical Storm Milton forms, expected to strengthen into a hurricane and target Florida
A dangerous, damaging and disruptive situation is likely to unfold in Florida next week as Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to evolve into a hurricane and deliver flooding downpours.
Even as Hurricane Helene was pressing toward the Florida coast, AccuWeather's team of expert meteorologists had been monitoring part of the Gulf of Mexico for yet another round of tropical trouble. On Saturday afternoon, Tropical Storm Milton formed, just hours after becoming a tropical depression, and it was expected to intensify and strike the Florida Peninsula next week as a hurricane, with torrential rain, wind and the likelihood of flooding.
Thunderstorms have been persistently erupting in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the past few days. AccuWeather began to refer to the system as a tropical rainstorm late in the week to raise public awareness of the risk to lives and property and to assist in planning and preparation.
As the tropical storms continues to churn over the warm Gulf waters later this weekend and early in the new week, it is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) before making landfall near Tampa Bay, Florida, on Wednesday morning. Milton is expected to be a major hurricane, a Category 3, at landfall.
“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “Milton could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with extreme impacts. This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge. Please make sure your family and in friends in this area are prepared.”
At this time, the greatest threat to lives and property appears to be due to torrential rainfall that can lead to dangerous, damaging and disruptive urban flooding in central Florida, beginning as early as Sunday and lasting through the middle of next week.
Besides torrential rainfall and flooding concerns, Milton can bring rough surf, dangerous seas and strong, damaging winds that cause power outages and even tornadoes.
A general 4-8 inches of rain is forecast to fall on portions of central Florida, with heavier rain and higher totals of 8-12 inches expected for places like Tampa and Orlando. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for Milton is 30 inches.
Rainfall rates of several inches per hour can occur in the major metro areas, easily overwhelming the storm drainage system in cities such as Cape Coral, Naples, Port Charlotte, Fort Myers, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Melbourne.
Even though much of Florida's soil is very sandy and can absorb heavy rain quickly, there will still be enough runoff that works into creeks, lakes and rivers to trigger flooding. Water levels may rise quickly on the smaller streams and lakes but may take a week or two to cycle through rivers such as the Peace, Imperial, Hillsborough, Myakka and St. Johns.
Strong winds in excess of 100 mph at landfall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 155 mph, can lead to long-lasting power outages and structural damage. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts can be experienced as far away as Jacksonville and the Florida Keys.
The strong winds can help drive storm surge flooding along the coast, especially in the Tampa Bay area, where up to 10 feet of water on top of normal tides can cause destruction at the coast.
"The feature will take an east-northeast track across the southern Gulf of Mexico where waters are sufficiently warm, in the 80s F, and wind shear, disruptive breezes, are low," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
The stronger Milton becomes before landfall, the greater the impacts from strong winds and storm surge. The dangers from flooding are likely, and there may still be locally severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and waterspouts.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tropical-rainstorm-expected-to-strengthen-into-a-hurricane-target-florida-with-flooding/1699524