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Anonymous ID: ee62b9 Oct. 21, 2024, 8:04 a.m. No.21804689   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>4935 >>5005 >>5025

GOP-leaning polls trigger questions about accuracy

BY JARED GANS - 10/19/24 12:00 PM ET

 

The prevalence of Republican-leaning polls in recent weeks is raising questions about their effect on the overall polling average as the presidential race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump tightens even further.

 

Surveys from pollsters that lean toward one party are a regular occurrence in presidential contests along with independent polling. In recent weeks, however,GOP-leaning polls have flooded the zone, fueling speculation that they could be skewing perceptions of the race. But experts note their average models have methodologies in place to prepare for this. “When you look across all the averages, the net effect is less than a point, if you take out the Republican polls, or the partisan ones, so to speak,” saidScott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ. “So I don’t necessarily think it’s a huge thing there.”

 

Across the board, election models and polling averages consider the race almost neck and neck without a clear leader. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model has the race as almost exactly even in each candidate’s chance to prevail. In FiveThirtyEight’s simulations of 1,000 possible outcomes, Trump wins in just more than 500 of them, a bit ahead of Harris. Pollster Nate Silver has Trump just ahead in likelihood of winning, still in line with other models.

Polling in general has been picking up as Election Day approaches — and in particular surveys from Republican-affiliated firms. Various averages include several polls from Republican-leaning pollsters or with Republican-leaning sponsors but not as many from Democratic-leaning pollsters.

 

This has raised the question of whether these GOP-leaning polls are to explain for why the race is tightening even more so with Trump seeming to make slight gains nationally and in key swing states.Tranter said these Republican partisan polls are having a minimal effect on the averages.He said Decision Desk HQ doesn’t weigh polls based on party associations. Polls that are most recent are given more weight than older ones, and sample size and meeting “basic requirements” are taken into consideration, but otherwise polls are treated the same way.

 

Tranter acknowledged that if the Republican-leaning pollsters were finding better results for Trump, the average would be more affected, but he noted that Decision Desk HQ’s model gives Harris a slightly better chance at winning than others that include a weighting system to limit the effect of partisan polls.

Silver’s model, for example, has Harris as the slight underdog but does weigh polls based on pollster quality and bias.

 

An elections analyst for Silver rejected the idea of GOP-leaning polls having much influence on the average in a post Wednesday, noting that Harris led by 3 points nationally in the overall average, while her lead shrunk to 2 points with just Republican-aligned pollsters. Taking them out, her lead increased to 3.4 points.

But the analyst said the weighing system prevents partisan polls from skewing the average, causing most models to roughly have the same averages on the national and state level, generally with differences within 1 percentage point.

Tranter also noted that not all GOP-leaning polls present good news for Republicans, pointing to internal polls from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that works to elect Republicans to the Senate, which showed several GOP candidates trailing their Democratic opponents in key states that the party has expressed high hopes for.

He said the impulse to consider the effect of partisan polls is a “reaction to the reaction,” with various media outlets reporting on good polls for one side or new surveys that move the average.“In a way, the polls are doing their job right,” he said. “They’re getting the media to talk about a potential movement here.”

But Tranter said he ultimately expects the polling for the race will appear mostly similar right before Election Day to how it currently looks and has looked throughout much of the race. He noted that Decision Desk HQ’s model has “inched” Harris’s probability of winning down from 53 percent to 50 percent over the past two months, which is measurable, but “it’s still essentially a coin flip.”

The closeness of the race is why these slight changes are seen as notable, Tranter said. “My take on it now is neither candidate should be surprised if they win or lose,” he said.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4941955-gop-leaning-polls-trigger-questions-about-accuracy/

Anonymous ID: ee62b9 Oct. 21, 2024, 8:07 a.m. No.21804704   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>4730 >>4760 >>4935 >>5005 >>5025

Courtney Holland 🇺🇸

@hollandcourtney

 

🚨NEVADA NEWS🚨 The ballot number totals are in, including mail from Clark County (Vegas), for the 1st day of early vote statewide:

 

Democrats only have a lead of 1,721 so far…For comparison to 2020, Democrats had a 40,000 lead to Republicans on 1st day of early vote.👀

 

h/t to

@jeremybhughes

for the data

 

Also notable…the voter registration gap between 2020 & 2024 has significantly changed:

 

2020: D’s led R’s in voter reg by ~86k

2024: D’s lead R’s in voter reg by ~15k

 

Like always in Nevada, it’ll come down to how the NPs/Indies break. We have a long way to go with more mail coming in but so far, Republicans are in a much better position than they were in 2020.

 

REPUBLICANS - Do not get complacent, get out and vote! Let’s do this!

 

Last edited

12:10 PM · Oct 20, 2024

·154K Views

 

https://x.com/hollandcourtney/status/1848033973420675371

Anonymous ID: ee62b9 Oct. 21, 2024, 8:19 a.m. No.21804755   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>4788 >>4935 >>5005 >>5025

US Judges Have a Social Media Problem

Published Oct 20, 2024 at 3:00 AM EDT

 

Two judges have been suspended for social media posts as ethics panels continue to crack down on online content. On October 7, Pennsylvania's Court of Judicial Discipline ruled that the case ofJudge Mark Cohen was the worst case of defiance they had ever seen after he refused to stop posting political comments. "No other case in the history of the Court of Judicial Discipline has involved such defiance post decision," the eight-judge panel ruled.

 

"People appearing before judges deserve fair, unprejudiced jurists to weigh their cases," they added.The court referenced the previous case of Justice Michael Eakin, who resigned from the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in 2016 after sharing sexually explicit jokes with friends and lawyers through emails and texts.

 

However, it noted thatEakin had never intended the public to view the posts and had apologized for his behavior. In contrast, Cohen refused to apologize and continued to post political messages. The court suspended Cohen without pay until his judicial term runs out at the end of the year. As Cohen is 75, he will be age-barred from running for judgeship again.

 

Cohen, who sat on the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas, had beenposting mostly pro-Democrat comments online, even after the court ruled against him last May and warned him to immediately stop posting political comments online. Throughout the process, Cohen insisted that his Facebook posts were protected free speech. They covered everything from environmental protection to the minimum wage.

 

In the same week in New Jersey, Bergen County Superior Court Judge Gary Wilcox was suspended for three months for TikTok videos in which he lip-synced songs with "references to violence, sex, and misogyny," according to an ethics complaint against him.

 

In some videos, Wilcox is wearing his judicial robes and in others he is in his court chambers. In some,he was only partially dressed while lying in bed, New Jersey ethics regulations wrote in a complaint to the New Jersey Supreme Court. Musicians he lip synched to included Rihanna, Miguel and Busta Rhymes and he had previously been warned about his conduct.

"In all 11 of the videos Respondent posted to TikTok, either the content - e.g., including references to violence, sex, and misogyny - location - i.e., in chambers, in the courthouse, and in a bed - or Respondent's physical appearance - e.g., wearing his judicial robes and/or partially dressed while lying in bed - were inappropriate and brought disrepute to the Judiciary," the ethics complaint reads.

 

Newsweek sought email comment on Thursday from Judge Cohen and Judge Wilcox.

Former federal prosecutor, Neama Rahmani, told Newsweek that all judges are prohibited from making prejudicial or inappropriate comments online."Each state has its own judicial ethics codes, many of which are based on the Model Rules of Judicial Conduct. They all prohibit judges from making prejudicial or otherwise inappropriate remarks. Racist or sexually harassing remarks would not be protected," he said.

 

On Judge Cohen, he said the question is whether political or partisan remarks are protected by the First Amendment and "is more difficult to answer."

Rahmani, now president of the West Coast Trial Lawyers law firm in California, said it depends on whether the judge is speaking in his or her capacity as a bench officer or a private citizen.

 

"In Garcetti v. Ceballos, the Supreme Court ruled that government employees can be punished for statements made pursuant to their position as a public employee," he said."In other words, there is no First Amendment protection for expressions made pursuant to their professional duties.

 

"Even if a judge is acting as a private citizen, ethical rules can limit political speech if it furthers the state's interest in an independent and impartial judiciary and are no more restrictive than necessary."

 

New York University law professor Stephen Gillers told Newsweek that judicial ethics rules everywhere forbid judges from engaging in public political activities.

 

"The judiciary is a non-partisan and non-political branch of government," he said. "When a lawyer becomes a judge, he or she forfeits certain first amendment rights that belong to private citizens. A separate set of rules aims to encourage public confidence in the courts and judges."

 

Talking about Wilcox, he said: "The behavior of Judge Wilcox, even after being warned, seems to have led the judicial ethics commission to conclude that he crossed that line and thereby threatened public confidence in the courts."

 

https://www.newsweek.com/judges-posting-social-media-ethics-complaints-judicial-robes-new-jersey-philadelphia-1970494

Anonymous ID: ee62b9 Oct. 21, 2024, 8:35 a.m. No.21804829   🗄️.is đź”—kun

Revealed: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fakeData suggests canvassers linked to Elon Musk’s America Pac falsely claimed to have visited homes of potential voters

Hugo Lowell,Sat 19 Oct 2024 (Read the statement from The Guardian below)

 

Donald Trump’s campaign may be failing to reach thousands of voters they hope to turn out in Arizona and Nevada, with roughly a quarter of door-knocks done by America Pac flagged by its canvassing app as potentially fraudulent, according to leaked data and people familiar with the matter.

 

The potentially fake door-knocks – when canvassers falsely claim they visited a home – could present a serious setback to Trump as he and Kamala Harris remain even in the polls with fewer than 20 days to an election that increasingly appears set to be determined by turnout.

 

The Trump campaign earlier this year outsourced the bulk of its ground game to America Pac, the political action committee founded by Musk, betting that spending millions to turn out Trump supporters, especially those who don’t typically vote, would boost returns.

 

But leaked America Pac data obtained by the Guardian shows that roughly 24% of the door-knocks in Arizona and 25% of the door-knocks in Nevada this week were flagged under “unusual survey logs” by the Campaign Sidekick canvassing app.

 

The Arizona data, for example, shows that out of 35,692 doors hit by 442 canvassers working for Blitz Canvassing in the America Pac operation on Wednesday, 8,511 doors were flagged under the unusual survey logs.

The extent of the flagged doors in America Pac’s operation underscores the risk of outsourcing a ground-game program, where paid canvassers are typically not as invested in their candidate’s victory compared to volunteers or campaign staff. America Pac denied it was experiencing that level of actual fraud in Arizona and Nevada and declined to comment on reporting for this story.

 

And a person familiar with the America Pac operation said: “Sidekick was never expected to handle the auditing of America Pac’s door operation. The reason the pac is confident in its numbers is because of the auditing procedures each canvassing firm puts in place and the auditing procedures of the pac writ large.”

 

Screenshot from America Pac’s systems for Arizona. One canvasser working for Blitz Canvassing appears to have marked doors from a Mexican restaurant in Globe, Arizona. Photograph: The Guardian

 

But multiple people familiar with the Campaign Sidekick app, including a recent auditor for Blitz Canvassing and a senior executive at another vendor who signed a non-disclosure agreement with America Pac, agreed the unusual activity logs were an effective tool to detect cheaters.

 

The unusual activity logs, for instance, showed a canvasser who was marked by GPS as sitting at a “Guayo’s On the Trail” restaurant half a mile away from the doors he was supposedly hitting in Globe, Arizona. Another canvasser was recorded marking voters as “not home” two blocks away from that apartment.

 

The Guardian also conducted its own test to see whether manually removing instances of “false positives” – doors wrongly marked as fraudulent – would show the unusual activity logs were too sensitive. Using a randomly picked sample of 26 canvassers in Arizona, the rate of suspected fakes was in line with the overall rate….

 

The Guardian Statement on how honest they areKEK:

We have never been more passionate about exposing the multiplying threats to our democracy and holding power to account in America. In the heat of a tumultuous presidential race, there is an urgent need for free, trustworthy journalism that foregrounds the stakes of November’s election for our country and planet.

And we avoid the trap that befalls much US media: the tendency, born of a desire to please all sides, to engage in false equivalence in the name of neutrality. We always strive to be fair. But sometimes that means calling out the lies of powerful people and institutions – and making clear how misinformation and demagoguery can damage democracy.

 

https://archive.is/3AjQX#selection-439.0-1169.8

Anonymous ID: ee62b9 Oct. 21, 2024, 8:43 a.m. No.21804882   🗄️.is đź”—kun   >>4935 >>5005 >>5025

Supreme Court rejects Michael Cohen's civil rights claim against Trump over tell-all book

The justices turned away Cohen’s appeal over his claim that Trump and other officials put him in solitary confinement in order to silence him.

Oct. 21, 2024, 9:33 AM EDT By Lawrence Hurley

 

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday rejected disbarred lawyer Michael Cohen’s last-ditch effort to revive a civil rights claim against his former boss Donald Trump.

 

The justices left in place lower court rulings that said Cohen could not pursue his allegation that then-President Trump and other officials violated his rights by putting him in solitary confinement for writing a tell-all book.

 

In 2020, Cohen was serving a three-year sentence on various charges relating to the work he had carried out for Trump.

 

He had been in home confinement because of the Covid-19 pandemic but was ordered back to prison after refusing to sign a form that would have prevented him from speaking to the press or posting on social media.

 

After 16 days in solitary confinement, a federal judge ordered Cohen released,finding that officials had retaliated against him on free speech grounds.(what officials?)

 

Cohen then sued Trump and other officials, seeking damages for the alleged violation of his right to be free from unreasonable search and seizure under the Constitution’s Fourth Amendment, among other things. He recently told NBC News that if Trump is elected to a second term in November, he “won’t stop with just locking people up” unless there is a significant deterrent.

 

But constitutional claims against individual federal officials are notoriously difficult to bring as a result of a line of Supreme Court rulings.

 

The court in recent years has made it almost impossible to bring constitutional claims against individual federal officials, rolling back a 1971 precedent called Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics that first allowed them.

 

In a 2022 case called Egbert v. Boule, the Supreme Court effectively put “Bivens claims” on life support in a ruling that tossed out allegations against a Border Patrol agent.

 

As NBC News reported last year, the 2022 Egbert ruling has been cited hundreds of times by lower court judges when throwing out Bivens claims in cases concerning a broad range of allegedly unconstitutional conduct.

 

A federal judge in New York and the 2nd Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals both highlighted the Supreme Court’s recent ruling in throwing out Cohen’s claims.

 

Unless Congress passes legislation to allow a form of Bivens claims, there are few legal avenues to seeking accountability when federal officials, including thousands of law enforcement officials, commit unlawful acts.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-michael-cohens-civil-rights-claim-trump-rcna176094

 

KEK Cohen assumes the SC is like the court of Judge Merchant