Is North Korea about to attack the South while supplying troops for Russia?

A series of events and speculation has stirred debate over what’s happening on the Korean Peninsula

A series of coinciding events has prompted alarmists and incompetent experts to state that “the Korean Peninsula is on the brink of war.” While there is always a possibility that any incident may escalate into an armed conflict, and the risk is never either zero or 100%, at this point there is no need for undue concern. Below, we will discuss the incidents – which, taken together, may indeed disturb anyone who is less familiar with the complexities of the situation in Korea – in more detail.

South Korean drones over Pyongyang

The current tensions, characterized by an exchange of mutual threats along the lines of “Don’t you dare, or you’ll face dire consequences” were triggered by South Korean drones dropping anti-North Korea leaflets over Pyongyang. This incident was confirmed by Russian Ambassador to North Korea Aleksandr Matsegora, and photos suggest these were plane-like UAVs similar to South Korean models.

It is well known that the propaganda war between North and South Korea frequently makes use of balloons. This tactic was initiated by South Korean “civil activists” who, for many years now, have been launching propaganda balloons with pamphlets, USB flash drives, etc., and sending them across the border. Apparently, former South Korean president Moon Jae-in and the incumbent, Yoon Suk-yeol, have permitted these activities, since the balloons are launched from state-controlled border areas. Following some harsh rhetoric from North Korea, the Democratic government in Seoul imposed a ban on launching balloons, but with the return to power of conservative forces, the balloon campaigns resumed.

These initiatives can be quite dangerous, because the propaganda leaflets are not merely aimed at undermining North Korea’s “spiritual integrity” but intend to provoke an armed conflict between North and South Korea. The provocateurs assume that as an ideocratic state, North Korea cannot ignore insults to “its highest dignity”; in fact, this is similar to the propaganda leaflets distributed by Nazi Germany, calling on Russians to “beat the Jewish political commissioner.” Naturally, if North Korea resorts to a harsh military response (such as artillery strikes on balloon launch sites in South Korea), this would leave the South with no choice but to retaliate, thereby igniting the kind of conflict that apocalyptic Protestant sects in South Korea are anticipating – a crusade of Christianity and democracy against godless communism. In the eyes of such pastors, Koreans are the chosen people whose sacrifice will ensure victory.

However, despite the fierce rhetoric, North Korea has come up with some impressive countermeasures. In retaliation for the propaganda balloons, they loaded their own balloons with trash and sent them back to South Korea. These balloons carry household waste and paper scraps. To date, North Korea has launched over 6,000 trash balloons, some of which even landed in the presidential compound in Seoul. Although there has been some damage from these balloons, thankfully, no casualties have been reported. This response seems far preferable to bombings. The balloons are launched in response to anti-North Korea propaganda broadcast through loudspeakers in border areas, although I personally believe it would be more fun to drown out K-pop with traditional Korean music or the Moranbong Band girl group – the “Pyongyang response to Vanessa Mae.”

Provocateurs, however, clearly disapprove of such a solution, and apparently someone has decided to escalate tensions. From an international law perspective, launching drones is a far more serious violation of airspace and national sovereignty than sending balloons that drift with the wind. Moreover, South Korea’s reaction to these events is quite intriguing. Organizations that are usually involved in sending balloons with leaflets said that they had nothing to do with it. Initially, South Korean military officials denied involvement, but their stance later shifted to “We cannot either confirm or deny what North Korea is claiming.” Furthermore, the authorities declined to investigate who was behind the drone launches, while Kim Yo-jong, the deputy department director of the Publicity and Information Department of the Workers’ Party of Korea and the sister of North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, directly accused the South Korean military of provocation.

https://www.rt.com/news/606267-speculations-north-korea-attack-south/

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This gives reason to speculate that the drones entered North Korean airspace without the approval of the country’s military leadership. This means that in the South Korean military, there is perhaps a group of “young radicals” who either wanted to showcase Seoul’s military capabilities to Pyongyang or settle scores for past incidents when North Korean reconnaissance drones successfully flew to South Korea and back, unnoticed by its missile defense systems. A more troubling scenario arises if this group is linked to the aforementioned Protestant sects, since this may result in further provocations.

Meanwhile, North Korea has ordered its artillery forces located along the border to full combat readiness, and launched a nationwide campaign encouraging enlistment in the Korean People’s Army. While this is a significant escalation, no new provocations have occurred as of yet. Hopefully, tensions will gradually ease, leading to a situation on the Korean Peninsula reminiscent of the Cold War standoff between the Soviet Union and the United States. We might see an arms race, occasional displays of power, and minor incidents, but it seems unlikely that either side will cross the red lines. After all, from a tactical perspective, should conflict arise, both parties would likely inflict major damage on each other.

One can only hope that, although “foolish grassroots initiatives” are seldom acknowledged by the command, the military will conduct an internal investigation and rein in the reckless enthusiasts whose actions could jeopardize the entire country. After all, a similar situation occurred in 2010 when South Korean forces shelled North Korean territorial waters during exercises near the border, assuming that since nobody was harmed other than fish, they would face no consequences. However, in response, North Korea bombarded Yeonpyeong Island, which resulted in four deaths. The conflict did not escalate further only because all parties understood the underlying reasons.

Cut-off roads to South Korea

The fact that North Korea has positioned its artillery units along the border has coincided with another major event: its forces have blown up roads leading toward the border with South Korea, cutting off any remaining communication routes between the countries.

This marked the culmination of a series of defensive measures undertaken by North Korea following the radical shift in its inter-Korean policy in late 2023-early 2024, when it abandoned the concept of reunification. When the country first became divided, many believed that Korean reunification would eventually happen. Up until 1972, Pyongyang considered Seoul its capital, labeling it as “temporarily occupied” territory. While discussions of reunification in the early 20th century were often framed as a distant prospect, the “Olympic thaw” of 2018-2019 revealed that even under the relatively liberal administration of former President Moon, Seoul viewed inter-Korean dialogue as more of a ceremony than a real cooperation opportunity. However, under conservative leadership, South Korea’s stance toward North Korea became overtly hostile, and Pyongyang realized that the idea of a hypothetical reunification with its “compatriots” in the South resembled the once widespread notion that the German people wouldn’t fight for the Nazis.

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US making ‘big mistake’ by weaponizing dollar – Putin

The greenback is only weakened by its politicization, the Russian president has said at the BRICS Summit

Weaponizing the US dollar is a big mistake, Russian President Vladimir Putin told a session at the BRICS Summit in Kazan on Wednesday. He made the remark following a harsh assessment on the currency's use as a political tool by the New Development Bank’s (NDB) president, Dilma Rousseff.

According to Rousseff, the global geopolitics is being adversely affected by the use of the US dollar “as a weapon to change the living conditions of the population.”

The vast wave of sanctions against Russia have forced many Western companies from various industrial sectors including food, clothing, and car manufacturing to leave the country, and have severely restricted people’s ability to travel and make international bank transfers, she noted.

Putin agreed with Rousseff’s assessment.

”Yes, indeed, we can see that this is true. In fact, I think it is a big mistake by those who do this. The dollar remains the most important instrument of world finance and using it as a means of achieving political goals undermines confidence in this currency and reduces its capabilities,” the Russian president said.

Russia does not seek to drop the dollar or defeat it, but instead is being “prevented from working with it,” Putin added. “Then we are forced to look for other alternatives, which is what is happening.”

Many Russian financial institutions were cut off from the Western financial system in 2022 in response to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. As a result, Moscow has accelerated trade with international partners using their national currencies. The trend has been increasingly supported by BRICS members, which have shifted from using the dollar and euro for trade settlements.

READ MORE: BRICS is a response to the ‘odious’ Western system – former Pentagon official

In August, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that over 95% of mutual settlements between Russia and its biggest trading partner, China, are carried out using the ruble or yuan.

Putin previously stated that the use of local currencies instead of the dollar or euro “helps to keep economic development free from politics as far as possible in the context of today’s world.”

https://www.rt.com/news/606348-putin-dollar-political-gain/

New centers of power, sovereign equality and Western coercion: What’s in the BRICS Kazan Declaration

The document outlines the group’s vision for global governance, economic development, and international cooperation

The BRICS nations approved a joint communique on Wednesday during the group’s three-day summit in the Russian city of Kazan. The document addresses multiple global crises and challenges and calls for a fairer and more just international order.

New centers of power

The group reaffirmed its commitment to promoting a multipolar world order where all nations have an equal say in global affairs. This is reflected in the declaration’s call for greater representation of emerging and developing countries in international institutions.

“We note the emergence of new centers of power, policy decision-making, and economic growth, which can pave the way for a more equitable, just, democratic, and balanced multipolar world order,” the document stated, adding that this system would be more beneficial to developing countries than the current Western-led international order.

The BRICS countries welcomed the growing influence of regional organizations such as the African Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These organizations are viewed as important platforms for promoting economic cooperation, security, and cultural exchange among their member states. The declaration also called for a strengthened World Trade Organization to resolve trade disputes and an expanded UN Security Council to provide greater representation for the Global South.

Sovereign equality and new BRICS partners

The group emphasized that all countries have the right to pursue their own development paths and make decisions about their internal affairs without interference from other states.

“We reaffirm our commitment to the BRICS spirit of mutual respect and understanding, sovereign equality, solidarity, democracy, openness, inclusiveness, collaboration, and consensus,” the group wrote

The group noted the “considerable interest” expressed by countries in the Global South to work with, if not join, the bloc, and thus endorsed the modalities for a new BRICS ‘Partner Country’ category.

“We strongly believe that extending the BRICS partnership with EMDCs emerging market and developing countries will further contribute to strengthening the spirit of solidarity and true international cooperation for the benefit of all,” it stated.

The current BRICS members are Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has yet to ratify its membership invitation. With nearly three dozen countries expressing interest in joining the economic bloc, Moscow considers establishing a BRICS partner category the best option for potential expansion.

https://www.rt.com/news/606297-brics-summit-kazan-declaration/

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Opposing Western coercive measures

The declaration condemns all sanctions and unilateral coercive measures as incompatible with international law, highlighting their far-reaching implications for human rights.

“We are deeply concerned about the disruptive effects of unlawful unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions, on the world economy, international trade, and the achievement of sustainable development goals,” the declaration states, noting that economic sanctions disproportionately affect the poor and vulnerable in targeted countries.

The group also condemns “unilateral measures introduced under the pretext of climate and environmental concerns” and opposes “unilateral protectionist measures that deliberately disrupt global supply and production chains and distort competition.”

“Acknowledging the role of BRICS members as the world’s largest producers of natural resources, we underscore the importance of strengthening cooperation among BRICS members across the entire value chain and agree to take joint actions to oppose unilateral protectionist measures,” the group declared.

Non-discriminatory trade in local currencies

“We recognize the widespread benefits of faster, lower-cost, more efficient, transparent, safe, and inclusive cross-border payment instruments based on minimizing trade barriers and ensuring non-discriminatory access,” the document states, likely referring to Russia’s exclusion from the Western SWIFT payment system following the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict.

“We welcome the use of local currencies in financial transactions between BRICS countries and their trading partners,” it continues, calling for the establishment of a BRICS Cross-Border Payments Initiative. The document also supports the BRICS New Development Bank’s financing projects in local currencies and its growth into a “premier multilateral development institution.”

READ MORE: Dumping US dollar ‘keeps politics out of economic development’ – Putin

In a speech at the summit on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that using local currencies instead of the dollar or euro “helps keep economic development free from politics as far as possible in today’s world.”

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https://www.rt.com/news/606297-brics-summit-kazan-declaration/