The early voting blog, 2024, Nevada
Updated, 9:15 PM, 10/28/24
Good evening, blog mates.
Monday's numbers gave another large boost toRepublicans, increasing their statewide ballot lead over Democrats to 40,000, or 5.7 percent. This has never happened, not even close, in The Reid Machine Era.
700,000 ballots have now been posted, so at least half the vote is in, perhaps a little more. And some trends seem to be embedded after 10 of 14 days. Note:The Tuesday of the second week also has traditionally been a good day for Republicans in in-person early voting. Monday's followed the 2020 pattern , with a GOP+4,000 result (actually slightly better than 2020)
The Republican turnout edge is now almost 8 percent, almost 9 percent in Clark. The usually reliable Clark Dem firewall has all but evaporated(2,800), the rural GOP firewall is at 37,000 and Washoe is also going well for the Repubs (+5,800).
I know people want to keep comparing this year to 2020 or 2022, but at the risk of repeating myself:This is a unicorn year. We have never seen this.
The Clark mail numbers are very puzzling. Fewer than 5,000 were processed today, bringing the total there to 234,000 ballots, which the Dems continue to win by large margins. The latest dump had the strangest configuration yet with Dems getting half the mail,Repubs just under 20 percent and indies at 30 percent. Republicans are now third (26 percent to indies (29 percent) and Dems (45 percent) in Clark mail.
But 234,000 is just over half of the total Clark ballots from 2020. Where is the mail? If it continues at this relatively snail 's pace,whether it is USPS delay or it will simply be way down for another reason, the Dems will need a huge margin with all those indies. Double digits, which seems unlikely. Dems need the volume of Clark mail to increase at the nearly 2-to-1 margins and meet or come close to the 2020 baseline or Trump is going to win Nevada, even if the Dems do well with indies.
Still a lot of time, but Republicans have reason for confidence with this unprecedented turnout pattern.
Updated, 10/28/24, 4:30 PM
Republicans being confident and Democrats being fretful is a dog bites man story at this point. If you look at the data as it exists today – and I will dive deeply into it in this post with a little help from my friends – you would much rather be the GOP.But if the past is prologue – and in this unicorn year I am not sure of anything quite yet – the Dems have reason to believe they can rebound by Nov. 5.
I’ll get to the data and the down-ballot stuff in a moment, but first the state of play on the 10th day of early voting:
Almost 645,000 ballots have been cast, or 32 percent.That’s going to just under half of the total ballots cast, unless my original prediction of 1.4 million comes true. (Right now, I think it will be closer to 1.3 million.)
The GOP lead over the Dems is about 32,000 ballots, or just under 5 percent. The Republican turnout edge is 6.2 percent and 7.2 percent in Clark. If those numbers stay the same, very difficult needle for Dems to thread.
The rural GOP firewall is 33,000, and Dems are not even close offsetting it with a miniature Clark firewall (6,000)and they are losing Washoe by nearly 5,000 ballots.
Very strong numbers on the surface for the GOP – Harris would need to win indies by 10 and hold her base to make the race close under this electorate. But will the electorate change.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024