Nevada The early voting blog, 2024. Great News
Updated, 5:50 AM, 10/31/24
Good morning, blog mates.
Clark mail overnight ((16,000 ballots) changed things a little:
GOP statewide lead cut to 42,000, or 4.8 percent. First time under 5 percent in awhile.
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Clark firewall for Dems at highest point at 8,600, and indies growing in voter share, now 28 percent in Clark and 27 percent statewide.
But GOP still looking stronger than ever at this point in an election, with substantial ballot lead. The great unknowns are the same: Can Clark mail get above 500,000 it's at 300,000 right now as it did in 2022, which was an off-year? And how are indies breaking – Dems seem to think they will break their way, which they will need to make it close. Mail is getting younger, which may siignify a shift, but polling aside, the indies are a bit of a black box.
872,400 have voted, or 43 percent. If turnout gets to 1.4 million, that's 62 percent; if only 1.3 million, that means two-thirds of the vote is in.
More later. HAPPY NEVADA DAY!
Updated, 9:45 PM, 10/30/24
Good evening, blog mates.
GOP lead is up to 44,400 statewide, or 5.2 percent.
=Dems finally eked out a win in Clark combined mail and in-person, but by a measly 10 votes. Not enough to fend off the ongoing rural landslides. And Washoe, which has a reported mail backlog, remains in GOP favor by about 5 percent.
Essentially the entire GOP lead is in the rurals, which are turning out significantly higher than Clark's 41 percent, except for Lyon, which also happens to be the largest rural vote source. The rurals continue to punch above their weight by more than 3 points while Clark is down 4 relative to voter reg and Washoe is up 1. This dynamic will change once the urban mail gets counted, but that is a substantial lead for the Repubs.
More than 856,000 voters' ballots have been posted. That's 42 percent of registered voters, but amounts to more than 61 percent of the turnout if it's 1.4 million, two-thirds if it's only 1.3 million.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024