Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

North Carolina Early Voting Final Update - 11.03

The state wrapped up its 17-day early voting period, and the current tally of 4.44 million votes represents roughly 80% of the expected electorate

🟡Others - 1,524,456

🔴Republicans - 1,478,746

🔵Democrats - 1,437,281

Others won the Saturday vote, Democrats came in second, and Republicans finished third. Absentee votes will roll in over the next three days, tightening the final EV margin a touch.

🔴41,465 raw vote lead (over Democrats)

🔴+0.9% current electorate (over Democrats)

The comparison vs. 2020 shows that the total number of early voters in both is pretty close, and the total # of white early voters is nearly identical. The big difference, of course, is that, like GA, there is a couple of points drop in the black share of the vote.

The female/male margin vs. 2020 is also identical at 10.5%.

What will the final ~1 million voters in NC look like? Well, a lot like this, but like GA, we'll likely see an ever-so-slightly whiter, more Republican, and more male vote than the first 4.44 million voters.

The final expected electorate in NC remains R+1 - R+3.

NC Sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M8k8LlwsRsa_qiH8QtMOBgwlRCuC3vSt/edit?gid=1297585433#gid=1297585433

https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1853079889316061471