Jacqui Heinrich

@JacquiHeinrich

An observation:the Harris campaign has not been talking much about early voting data. When they have figures they feel good about, they share them – like last week, when they announced that women have made up 55% of voters across battleground states.

But for the past two days, we’ve received few hard numbers on young, Black, and Latino early turnout, instead they’ve been sharing numbers for doors knocked and calls made.

They have shared some anecdotes – like high young voter turnout in college towns, where you’d expect it, and statements about enthusiasm. But they’re not giving out the kind of details that the Trump campaign is touting – like the Republican share of the early vote among new or infrequent battleground voters, Republican share of male vote across battlegrounds, and returned mail and early turnout comparisons to 2020.

The Harris campaign maintains they still have multiple pathways to 270 – but publicly they’re projecting less confidence than in previous cycles at this point. It may be that the GOP embracing early voting wound up increasing turnout among lower propensity Republican voters, which is giving Dems heartburn.

Harris is obviously animating a different swath of the electorate than Biden did in 2020, but it’s also but it’s also interesting that the final two weeks of Biden’s 2020 campaign included 4 stops in Florida, 3 in Ohio, and 1 in Iowa. Harris is spending more of her time in Dem strongholds, trying to lock down and turn out the base.

Another challenge for anyone trying to read the tea leaves:polls have not accurately measured either the impact of Dobbs or support for Trump in past elections.

Nov 4, 2024

https://x.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1853627944020717984