ThePersistence

@ScottPresler

LONG LINE @ 7 a.m. in Pike County, PA.

This is a rural, red county.

Very good sign for Trump. We need sky high turnout.

CC: @papatriot0720

Pike County, PA

7:07 AM · Nov 5, 2024

·123.8K Views

https://x.com/ScottPresler/status/1853771233722003700

Lee County, FL, long lines

https://x.com/mistele88/status/1853766939446747551

1 hour ago

The year-to-year unpredictability of polling bias

We’ve talked a lot about how polling error is a fact of life in elections, but polling bias also tends to happen. Now, when we say bias, we don’t mean intentional efforts to put out polls that favor the preferred party of the pollster and/or sponsoring organization. Instead, polling bias indicates to what extent pollsters as a whole over- or under-estimated one party’s actual performance in the election.

For instance, we know that pollsters underestimated Trump’s position in the 2020 presidential election, to the tune of an average bias of about 4 points more Democratic than the real result. In 2016, the bias was similarly around D+3. So we’ve had two straight presidential cycles in which the polls have exaggerated the Democrats’ standing in the polls, which naturally makes people suspicious that we could once again see pollsters undershoot Trump’s actual vote share in 2024.

However, one only has to look a little farther back to see that polling bias does not consistently favor one party or the other. In 2012, pollsters undershot Barack Obama’s result in the presidential race by an average of about 2.5 points. And all told, the average bias in presidential elections dating back to 2000 is about a point more Democratic than the actual outcome. The broader point is, it’s nigh impossible to predict which direction polling bias will go ahead of the election. Pollsters are constantly working to try to overcome the challenges facing their industry, so expecting the past to be prologue when it comes to error and/or bias is a fool’s game.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/live-updates/election-results-2024/?id=115468646&entryId=115514448

Eric Trump

@EricTrump

==12:12am - “The Final Walkout!”

Grand Rapids, Michigan!==

12:32 AM · Nov 5, 2024

·2.2M Views

https://x.com/EricTrump/status/1853671714141458460

This is history guys!

Van Jones Predicts the Future

Veteran Dem strategist gives shocking statement about Kamala's chance in crucial swing state

07:22 EST 05 Nov 2024

By Stephen M. Lepore

Van Jones continued to show skepticism toward Kamala Harris, with a damning comparison about the Democrat's campaign in its closing hours.

Jones, who worked for President Obama, told CNN on Monday that the final days of the 2024 election have looked eerily similar to Hillary Clinton's devastating loss in 2016.

With Harris holding rallies with A-list stars like OprahWinfrey, Lady Gaga and Katy Perry in various swing states, Jones sees parallels.

'The other thing that makes me nervous, in 2016, we had a big star-studded event right on the edge of the election, and we lost the state,' Jones said.

'I don't think people understand, working people sometimes have to choose. Am I going to go to the big, cool concert and pay for babysitting for that or am I going to figure out a way to get to the polls? I don't like these big star-studded events.'

The former Special Advisor for Green Jobs for the Obama White House said that these events are more of a hindrance to turning out voters than an asset.

'I don't want people going to concerts.I want people out there knocking on doors, I want people out there fighting for this thing. I'm just nervous, nervous, nervous.'

Harris did post a video of herself on Instagram helping door-knock with potential Pennsylvania voters earlier Monday.

Jones was also worried that Harris may give away Biden's commanding victory with Pennsylvania's Jewish voters.

'Biden won the Jewish vote by 70%, 70-30 last time. Some polls show Kamala at 50-50. That is 70,000 votes we bled away, that is the margin for victory,' Jones said.

Jones, a lifelong liberal and star Democrat pundit, last slammed Harris after a high-stakes CNN town hall just 13 days from the election.

Harris' inability to provide clear answers on both domestic and foreign policy, and trademark meandering responses throughout the 90-minute session had CNN's left-leaning panelists ripping her afterwards.

'The word salad stuff gets on my nerves,' he bluntly said on-air after the town hall wrapped.

'I think some of the evasions are not necessary.'

Thousands of supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris waited in line to see her final appearance on the campaign trail, in front of the iconic 'Rocky Steps' in Philadelphia Monday night.

While Harris wasn't expected to get to the City of Brotherly Love and speak to the crowd until 11 p.m., programming kicked off a few minutes before 7 p.m. with Grammy Award-winning singer Jazmine Sullivan covering Marvin Gaye's What's Going On.

'I don't know about you, but I feel safer when there's a woman in leadership,' Sullivan told the crowd.

Harris will be joined in Philadelphia by Oprah Winfrey, Lady Gaga, The Roots, Fat Joe, Ricky Martin, Freeway and Just Blaze, Adam Blackstone and DJ Cassidy.

Four years ago, Lady Gaga also performed at President Joe Biden's final rally in Pennsylvania, outside where the Steelers play in Pittsburgh.

Winfrey has been active politically this cycle, speaking in support of Harris at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

Martin is among the Puerto Rican artists to vocalize their support for Harris in the aftermath of former President Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally last week in which a MAGA-aligned comedian called the U.S. territory a 'floating island of garbage.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14040985/Veteran-Dem-strategist-gives-shocking-statement-Kamala-Harris-Pennsylvania.html