Republican Euphoria Punctured by Tough Math in the House - WSJ. 1/2

Nov. 12, 2024 1:10 pm

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.)

WASHINGTON—House Republicans on the verge of clinching a majority in the next Congress are already taking a victory lap,but their expected slim margin and unruly nature could undercut their efforts to pass President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.

Party leaders, still bruised from infighting over the past two years that led to the ouster of the GOP speaker and embarrassing failed votes, say things will be different this time. The squabbles were exacerbated by the party’s historically small majority this Congress—now at 220 to 212 with three vacancies—and leaders now are bracing for a similarly narrow advantage next year.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Republicans had won 214 seats to 205 for Democrats, while 16 seats remained uncalled by the Associated Press. Already,two of those GOP winners are set to take posts in the Trump administration, leaving even less wiggle room temporarily. The majority party has led by 10 or fewer seats during just six congressional terms during the last century, according to House records.

With Trump’s policy agenda on taxes and other priorities on the line—and his well-earned reputation for imposing party discipline—top House Republicans predicted a smoother, more unified ride this time, even if they can spare to lose just a handful of defections on any bill.But with Democrats expected to be largely united against the Trump agenda, any number of issues could trip up the majority, ranging from spending cuts, to raising the debt limit, to ending the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) said Republicans are prepared to avoid the mistakes they made during President-elect Donald Trump’s first presidency.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.), at a press conference Tuesday, said Republicans “are ready to deliver on America’s mandate in the next Congress” and wouldn’t repeat the slow start that hurt the GOP in 2017, the last time the party had control of the House, Senate, and presidency. “We are not going to make those mistakes again,” he said.

In subsequent comments to reporters, Johnson struck an upbeat note on party unity after two years of rocky GOP control of the House that often required leaders to rely on Democrats on key votes.He said he was ready to work with “whatever margin I have. We’ve demonstrated we can do that already.” With Trump’s mandate at stake, he said: “I think you’ll see cohesion in the team.”

House Republicans leaders said they are still working out their priorities with Trump, including how to handle a government-spending deadline in December, with dueling ideas of funding the government until March or September. Trump might meet Wednesday with House Republicans in Washington before he sits down with President Biden, Johnson said.This weekend, Johnson is flying down to Mar-a-Lago to meet with the president-elect.

Some GOP lawmakers say they think leaders can keep things on track,especially if Trump takes a tough line with holdouts.

“The speaker of the House has a stick, the president of the United States has a howitzer,” said one Republican House lawmaker.

Party leaders said Trump was aware of how the GOP’s thin incoming majority limits the number of House members who can leave to join the new administration. So far, Trump has chosen Rep. Elise Stefanik for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and Rep. Mike Waltz (R., Fla.) for national security adviser.Trump “fully understands and appreciates the math here,” Johnson said.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R., Okla.), a former House lawmaker who keeps close tabs on the chamber’s dynamics, said he expected Republicans to be more unified because Trump can drive the agenda.

“Speaker Johnson will be working hand in glove with the president,” he said.“You’re going to find our party is going to stick together.”

But some members, who are returning to Washington this week,indicated they wouldn’t be bossed around in the next term. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R., Ind.) said she isn’t worried about repercussions from Trumpif she decides to break from Republican leaders’ orders on long-term government spending or healthcare policy… (Sparks hasn't dealt with the REAL leader yet)

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“I’ve always been an independent thinker and have been willing to challenge my own party,” she said.

Asked what kind of consequences a Republican could face for stepping out of line, one lawmaker replied: “Ask Bob Good.”KEK

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R., Ind.) said she isn’t worried about blowback from Trump if she breaks from Republican leaders.

Good, a Virginia lawmaker, endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the party’s presidential nomination at the beginning of the campaign season. In June, he narrowly lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, John McGuire, after Good faced a barrage of attack ads and criticism from colleagues. (Good didn't only support DeSantis, he said very nasty things about Trump.)

In June, Trump put one of the House’s most defiant lawmakers on notice. In a private meeting with House Republicans, Trump spotted Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R., Ga.) and asked whether she was “being nice” to Johnson. Greene had unsuccessfully tried to oust Johnson after he supported a $95 billion foreign-aid package that included money for Ukraine.

“Be nice to him,” Trump instructed her, according to Greene, who detailed the interaction in a CNN interview.

The first test will come Wednesday, when new and returning GOP lawmakers vote to nominate their pick for speaker, ahead of the vote by the full House in January.Johnson—who said he expects to remain in the post—is expected to easily win the initial vote, but the level of support will be closely watched. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy won the vote in 2022 but faced 31 dissenters, presaging a drawn-out speaker vote the following January that went to 15 rounds over four days.

House Republicans are also expected to debate this week on whether to keep the rule that enables any one person to call a vote to oust the speaker. McCarthy had lowered the bar for that measure as a concession to critics; previously, only members of leadership or caucuses could call that vote. That rule change opened the door for his ouster in October 2023.

Republican lawmakers emphasize the party has limited time to get things done before the midterm elections, when the president’s party typically loses seats.

Biden got several major pieces of legislation, including a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 bill, a $1 trillion infrastructure law and the climate-related Inflation Reduction Act, across the finish line during the first two years of his administration when Democrats had control of the Senate and the House.

Trump “will tolerate disagreement, but he’s not going to tolerate infighting because we have a job to do to fix this country, and we don’t have a lot of time,” said Rep. Lisa McClain (R., Mich.), who is running to succeed Stefanik as chair of the House Republican Conference.

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