Drones in New Jersey area
Excellent analysis, although I don't agree with poster's conclusion.
https://x.com/MCCCANM/status/1866644098989559826
KC-10 Driver ✈️ 👨✈️ B-737 Wrangler
@MCCCANM
Ok, let’s dig into the NJ Drone thing:
An easy way to tell if there’s a problem is to see if local airports are issuing “NOtices To Air Missions” (NOTAMs) warning pilots about the activity.
If there were car-sized drones flying around, ATC would put out a NOTAM quickly…it warns pilots to be aware & takes some of the responsibility off them if someone hits one. NOTAMs are issued for laser activity (authorized & unauthorized), birds, unlit towers, cranes, etc…anything that can be a threat.
So, I checked the biggest airports in the area: Newark, Teterboto, Trenton, Philadelphia & for good measure, McGuire AFB (technically McGuire/Dix/Lakehurst) & Monmouth Executive. That’s effectively a ring around the area the “drones” are being reported.
Both Newark & Teterboro had NOTAMs for UAS activity (Unmanned Aerial System – drones).
The problem is that both are at the far North end of where the drones are being reported, the NOTAMs define the airspace quite clearly, the airspace is small (no more than 3nm) & the drones are capped no higher than 400’. The NOTAMs vary in age; the most recent was filed on 5 Dec, while the oldest is from January of this year.
None of the other airports had NOTAMs for UAS activity.
The conclusion from the NOTAMs we do have is they refer to a professional operator who filed the correct paperwork with the FAA. If these were the drones in question, the FAA could pick up the phone…but these are not what’s being reported.
What if someone didn’t bother w/ the paperwork? ATC would put out a NOTAM anyway if they saw something. As I said, they often put out NOTAMs for unauthorized laser activity…this would be similar.
A car sized drone, as they are being described, would be able to avoid radar if it stayed very low…but if it went up even 1,000’, ATC would start seeing it on radar & warning pilots about an “unknown contact”. Further, if a pilot reported one, ATC would have an obligation to warn other pilots…just like they do with lasers.
But we’re not getting that. At this point, I think we can conclude ATC isn’t seeing these drones.
There’s another tool we can use: Airline Operations. If there were lots of drones in the approach corridor of Newark, Philadelphia or really any airport they serve, the airlines would issue an “Ops Alert” or “Pilot Bulletin”. The name of these vary from airline to airline, but essentially it’s a warning to pilots to watch out for unusual things that might not be covered by the NOTAM system (though the drones in this could would).
I can’t speak for all, but my airline – which uses one of these airports as a major hub – has issued no such alert, so no luck there.
What’s the pilot chatter? From what I’ve seen in my groups, most pilots think it’s funny. The videos we’ve seen are quite obviously airplanes to us. If some of the videos were just a little clearer, we could tell you which airline…I spent 10 minutes trying to clean up one that had the logo light on the tail, but ultimately couldn’t decide which airline’s logo it was (likely United).
Further, this is very busy airspace that ATC descends us down low in, often early…especially for Newark. The approach corridors extend pretty far out in this area…it’s super tight airspace. So, yes, you can expect to see airplanes here.
At this point, I think the most likely explanation is a social contagion; a mania, like the Salem Witch Trials, the Tulip Mania, War of the Worlds broadcast or any other number of examples. They abound…it’s just something humans do, like the tale of “Bloody Mary” in school.
Why would politicians weigh in, though? Because they’re politicians & they exploit people’s fears. It’s kind of their whole thing. “I’m super serious about issue X & won’t rest until it’s solved!” They love this stuff.
Ok, I’m out of space. I could be wrong & this could be real, but I’m going to need much, MUCH better evidence to change my mind.