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Instead of Trumpism without Trump,we are seeing Trump with fleshed-out Trumpism. His agenda includes creating the so-called Department of Government Efficiency run by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, and Vivek Ramaswamy, another billionaire and former Republican candidate. Their primary goal is to deconstruct the administrative state.
What will Trump 2.0mean for the world? At his first inauguration in 2017, Trump spoke of the “American carnage” caused by globalisation and China. During his first term, he also threatened to abandon Nato over “unpaid dues” by some of its European members.This time he brings similar threats but with more teeth. He has also promised to solve the Russian war on Ukraine “within 24 hours”. Though he has appropriated Ronald Reagan’s slogan of “peace through strength”, that gives little guidance to what he will do in practice. His parallel pledge of “America First” covers the opposite end of the geopolitical spectrum.
“It is impossible to predict what a man without a foreign policy philosophy will do —Trump is purely transactional,” says John Bolton, who was Trump’s national security adviser for 18 months in his first term. “The big difference is that he will be surrounded by ‘yes’ people this time.”
The future of America’s alliances looks parlous. The impending withdrawal of US support for Ukraine is already throwing Europe into disarray. With Germany in limbo pending its February election, and Emmanuel Macron’s French presidency in the balance,Trump will have open season to sow further division in the EU — a body he has always disdained.(they disdained him first!)
Trump’s other foreign policy signals since November 5 have been mixed. Nobody was expecting his first threats of trade war to be directed at Canada and Mexico, on which he vowed 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs.But the move was classic Trump, and flushed out the relative strengths and weaknesses of his counterparts.
Canada’s embattled prime minister, Justin Trudeau, instantly flew to Mar-a-Lago to try to strike a deal. After returning home empty-handed, he was mocked by Trump as the governor of the “great state of Canada” — a reference to the joke about it being America’s 51st state. By contrast, Mexico’s recently inaugurated president, Claudia Sheinbaum, rebutted Trump’s demands in icily correct language. “We negotiate as equals, there is no subordination here, because we are a great nation,” Sheinbaum said.==
It is conceivable that China, which is America’s third-largest trading partner but which has by far the largest trade surplus, will strike a deal with Trump. It is equally possible that China and the US will embark on a full-blown trade war. The only link between the two scenarios is that it is Trump who will decide, not his team.
“Trump believes he can fix every problem by himself by talking to his counterparts,” says Bolton. “That can take events in strange directions.”
In early December, Trump travelled to Paris to attend the reopening of Notre-Dame, France’s grand cathedral. Trump was greeted warmly by Europe’s notables, including Britain’s Prince William. He was alsohugged by Macron in spite of Trump having just appointed Charles Kushner, a convicted felonand father-in-law to his daughter Ivanka,as US ambassador to France. “This time Europe laid out the red carpet for Trump,” says Stone.
He also struck up a friendly conversation with Jill Biden, who went in her husband’s stead. Two days later Trump released an advertisement for his branded men’s perfume “Fight, fight, fight” against a photo of him and Jill Biden making friendly chit chat.“A fragrance your enemies can’t resist”, said the commercial. The Trump cologne joins his $59.99 made-in-China “God Bless America Bible” and other Trump merchandise on sale. He is always on the lookout for deals. Trump and Musk might talk of steep cuts to US federal spending.In reality, they are likelier to make far bigger inroads into deregulation, particularly for cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence.
Approaching hisninth decade (? Eighth decade), Trump is at an unconventional age to be presiding over a change in the global order and a realignment in US politics. The extent of Trump’s coming radicalism at home and abroad is still a matter of guesswork.
“We are embarking on a new era,” says Stone. “There will be no going back.”
Others forecast that Trump 2.0 will spell chaos, not a new order. Whichever it is, Trump’s return heralds a new gilded age for money in US politics and diplomacy. He looks set to start with a cabinet of billionaires. (The author doesn't understand chaos leads to order)
“Never forget that Trump wrote The Art of the Deal,”says another Trump acolyte. “Whatever is going on, he is always, always searching for an angle.”
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