Anonymous ID: 0c8578 Jan. 22, 2025, 12:22 p.m. No.22412204   ๐Ÿ—„๏ธ.is ๐Ÿ”—kun   >>2378 >>2474 >>2517

>>22412174

There was this analysis:

<quote>

Gavin Baker

@GavinSBaker

Stargate is a great name but the $500b is a ridiculous number and no one should take it seriously unless SoftBank is going to sell all of their BABA and ARM.

 

SoftBank has $38b in cash, $142b in debt and generates $3ish billion in FCF per BBG. They own $143b in ARM and $18b in BABA. If they start selling ARM, their stake will be worth much less very quickly.

 

Oracle has $11b in cash, $88b in debt and generates $10b in FCF.

 

OpenAI is burning cash.

 

MGX did not commit to a number and is a $100b fund. Maybe 10% of the fund goes into this best case.

 

Nvidia will limit how much they invest in any one model company (they donโ€™t need a monopsony). Maybe $5b.

 

Barring the aforementioned SoftBank ARM sale, might be able to put together $50b in equity funding over several years. Can obviously finance the GPUs and put debt on the JV.

 

Nowhere close to $500b. Everyone should just start issuing press releases for $1 trillion AI projects.

 

BTW love it that the ticker MGX which is a biotech company is up 33% on this.

 

If you a professional investor or analyst and you took $500b at face value - or even worse wrote a note about this - you should resign in disgrace.

<end quote>

 

https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1882081746877063677