NIPPING THE FEAR PRON IN THE BUD
THERE IS NO KILLER ASTEROID DUE IN 2032
The odds just increased again. Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.6% chance of hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, up from 2.2% a week ago, and 1.3% in January. Current probabilities are based on 368 observations spanning 54 days. This growing arc of data is improving our knowledge of the asteroid's orbit and, so far, steadily increasing the odds of a strike.
That was the bad news. The good news is, even if it hits, 2024 YR4 will not wipe us out. With an estimated diameter of 40 to 70 meters, it is only a few times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteor that hit Russia in 2013. That space rock exploded in the atmosphere, creating shock waves that shattered glass windows and injured hundreds of people (mainly from broken glass). The estimated size of 2024 YR4 reminds researchers even more of the Tunguska impactor, which leveled a forest in Russia in 1908. You wouldn't want to be at ground zero, but Earth would survive.
The risk profile of 2024 YR4 is unusual. Often we see sensational headlines predicting some newly-discovered asteroid might hit Earth. These are space rocks with huge error bars on their orbits because they haven't been tracked for very long. As soon as more data are collected, the odds of impact go down. For 2024 YR4, however, the odds are still going up, which makes it interesting.
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=18&month=02&year=2025
click here for animated orbital video
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20YR4&view=VOP
pls make a note of it and STOP posting about the end of the world in 2032
IF we make it that far, this asteroid can't hurt us