How likely is it that Ukraine's rare earths get developed?

According to geologist Tony Mariano (via Platts), "there are no economically viable rare earth deposits in Ukraine." However, there could be development opportunities, with mining.com citing that tantalum, niobium, and other rare earths could be extracted alongside the Novopoltava phosphate deposit (requiring a $300 mn investment) or the Azov deposit of Rare Earth Metals, but these are both currently outside of the control of Ukraine. President Zelenskyy said that Russia now occupies around half of Ukraine's rare earth deposits, and 40% of its total metal resources.

In our view, the development of rare earth resources in Ukraine would take some time, and will likely require significant investment.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/precious-metals-rare-earth-minerals-morgan-stanley-breaks-down-ukraine-peace-deal

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Ukraine is relying on a Soviet-era assessment of difficult-to-access rare earths deposits, according to industry experts and a geological record obtained by S&P Global Commodity Insights, as the country prepares to offer minerals to the US in exchange for military assistance.

US Vice President JD Vance will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Feb. 14 at the Munich Security Conference to discuss an end to a three-year war that began when Russia invaded Ukraine. But Zelenskyy's rare earths offer is based on exploration activities that took place largely between the 1960s and 1980s, when the Soviet state was actively mapping the area, industry experts said.

The deposits would be difficult to develop. Some are stuck behind battle lines or, in the case of the geological record for one of the sites, require advanced processing technology and a stable energy grid to extract. And the valuation of the deposits is based on decades-old data: No sources contacted by Commodity Insights were aware of any commercial exploration or assessment of those deposits in the post-Soviet period.

"Unfortunately, there is no modern assessment" of rare earth reserves in Ukraine, Roman Opimakh, former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, told Commodity Insights in an email. "And there is still restriction to make this information public."

The Ukrainian Geological Survey is the government agency responsible for mineral development.

https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/2/ukraine-rare-earths-potential-relies-on-soviet-assessments-may-not-be-viable-87318842