A nation of two minds: Another East-West rift in Germany, new coalition in the making
In its early Bundestag elections, the German nation put power in the hands of a black-red coalition made up of the CDU/CSU and the former ruling Social Democratic Party. Interestingly, the country's political preferences are split along the old border between East and West Germany, with the far-right Alternative for Germany triumphing in the east and the Christian Democrats keeping the west. Berlin stands out again for its choice of a third option: the Left, which inherited the legacy of the German Communists. Future Chancellor Friedrich Merz seems resigned to the accelerating deterioration of relations between the U.S. and EU, meaning his government is on the lookout for new international partners. However, political scientist Dmitri Stratievski argues that Germany's Russia and Ukraine policy will remain unchanged.
Germany’s snap parliamentary elections of Feb. 23 produced results almost perfectly in line with the latest opinion polls. First place was predictably taken by the conservative Union parties: the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), led by the likely future chancellor Friedrich Merz (28.52%). The runner-up, for the first time since World War II, was the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 20.8%. The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) came in third with their lowest ever result (16.41%). The so-called “traffic light coalition” is now history, giving way to a different format of government.
Today, even an incorrigible optimist can no longer call Germany an island of political stability, where the electoral field is divided among mainstream parties and where radicals remain on the margins of national politics. The first serious crack fractured this “wall of calm” back in 2017, when AfD ran in the Bundestag elections for the first time, winning 12.7% of the vote and becoming Germany's third most popular party. The success on the opposite radical flank was also noticeable, as the Left Party, which back then still included Sahra Wagenknecht's group, won 9.2% of the vote.
In the pandemic year of 2021, when Angela Merkel stepped away from the world of politics, election results showed a departure from radicalism, with AfD's results slumping to 10.3% and the Left falling below the 5% threshold, meaning their only representatives in parliament were those who won in single-member districts. Meanwhile, the 2024 and 2025 elections to the European Parliament and in three eastern German states ended in the success of the AfD, clearly demonstrating a rift in German society.
Traditionally one of the “people's parties,” SPD lost so much ground that it was knocked out of its traditional strongholds in Germany's industrial center. Here, the conservatives took almost all of the constituencies, gaining an estimated 1.7 million former Social Democrat voters.
Another 700,000 votes that had gone to the center-left in the previous election shifted to the AfD. Alice Weidel's associates delivered the far-right party's best result since 1933, gaining the trust of 10.3 million voters and triumphing in the east of the country. Admittedly, AfD received some support in West German states as well, but considerably less than in the former GDR.
In all of former West Germany (except the small Saarland), the AfD failed to cross the 20% threshold, with its results ranging from 10% to 15% in Bremen and Hamburg. But its share in the east broke records, ranging from 32.5% in Brandenburg to an all-time high of 38.6% in Thuringia. Only the Christian Democrats and SPD of the euphoric, post-reunification 1990s could boast comparable numbers in the east of the country.
The election results in the capital are paradoxical, as Berlin has traditionally been the fiefdom of the Greens and SPD. In the last state elections, the CDU gained control of the city administration. However, in the Bundestag elections, the Left, which opposed anti-migrant measures and instead emphasized the fight for social justice, came first in both the first votes (for parties) and the second votes (for specific candidates). The Left was also the most popular among people with migrant backgrounds, which is hardly a coincidence.
As for the AfD, sociologists say there is no single decisive factor that would explain the party's success in eastern Germany. Among the reasons cited are weak political structures, a strong presence of right-wing radicals, the lack of democratic traditions, fears of “your average migrant” in the border regions, perceptions of a deteriorating economic situation, and resentment over the alleged lack of representation of eastern Germans in the federal government.
Differences from the previous elections are also noteworthy. The latest poll suggests that only 39% of far-right supporters are protest voters — those opting for the AfD out of dissatisfaction with the other options on offer. As many as 54% define themselves as staunch backers of the AfD specifically.
Also alarming for the mainstream parties was the fact that more than one-third of the nearly 3.7 million Germans who boycotted the last election cast their lot with the AfD this time around. Germany's electoral map is now almost uniformly colored black in the west (CDU and CSU in Bavaria) and blue in the east (AfD). The watershed runs neatly along the pre-1990 border between East and West Germany.
While AfD's success was predictable, the progress of the Left Party came as a surprise to many. The Left Party, which survived a split, the emergence of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, and a series of failures in the 2024 elections, stood no chance of making it to the Bundestag and found itself on the edge of political oblivion. Party strategists capitalized on the missteps of Wagenknecht, who failed to shake off her authoritarian ways — quarreling with influential fellow party members and alienating voters with her anti-migrant and anti-socialist rhetoric.
The Left profited from the slumping ratings of the SPD and the Greens, as well as from the prevailing mood of uncertainty in the left-wing public niche. Eventually, the party ran a successful campaign, doubled its rating shortly before the election, and received 8.77% of the vote. In Berlin, the Left came in first, securing several districts in which the Social Democrats' victory was considered a done deal.
The East-West line is not the only visible fracture in German society. Polarization has become palpable between Germans favoring mainstream policies of past decades and those demanding radical change — even at the cost of authoritarian and inhumane means.
The nation's right turn doubled the AfD's presence in the Bundestag, as the electorate’s small-but-real faction of protest voters teamed up with the far right. The conservatives' victory came not only due to the low approval ratings of Olaf Scholz and the traffic light coalition, but also because of a radicalization of demands in the areas of migration, social security, finance, and the economy, where the bloc played the role of a democratic “AfD Lite.” Merz, for his part, went for the image of “Trump Lite,” a strong leader willing to take unpopular measures in Germany's national interests while playing by the rules of German parliamentarism.
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