To deport 32 million illegal immigrants before Jan 20th 2029…what are the numbers?…
It ain't happening…
Calculation
To deport 32 million people by January 20, 2029 (1,408 days), the U.S. would need to deport approximately 22,727 individuals per day (32,000,000 ÷ 1,408). This is a dramatic increase over current and historical rates:
Compared to Trump’s first-term peak (347,250 in FY 2019, or ~951/day), it’s 24 times higher.
Compared to his second-term early rate (~1,255/day in January 2025), it’s 18 times higher.
Compared to Obama’s peak (432,228 in 2013, or ~1,184/day), it’s 19 times higher.
Feasibility and Time Estimate
Current Capacity: At the early 2025 rate of 1,255 deportations per day, deporting 32 million would take approximately 25,498 days (32,000,000 ÷ 1,255), or about 70 years. This clearly exceeds the 1,408-day timeline.
Scaled-Up Capacity: To meet the January 20, 2029, deadline, the U.S. would need to achieve 22,727 deportations per day. The American Immigration Council’s analysis of deporting 1 million per year (2,740/day) suggests significant infrastructure (e.g., detention camps, 220,000–409,000 additional personnel, and $88 billion/year). Scaling to 22,727/day would require:
8.3 times more capacity than the 1 million/year model (22,727 ÷ 2,740).
An estimated $730 billion annually (8.3 × $88 billion), totaling over $2.8 trillion by 2029.
Detention capacity for millions simultaneously, far beyond current ICE limits.
Hundreds of daily deportation flights (e.g., at 80 people per flight costing $850,000 each, ~284 flights/day = $241 million/day).
Realistic Timeframe: Even with a hypothetical aggressive ramp-up to 1 million deportations per year (2,740/day), it would take 32 years (32,000,000 ÷ 1,000,000) to deport 32 million. At 2 million per year (5,479/day), it would take 16 years. Achieving 32 million in under 4 years (8.3 million/year or 22,727/day) is unprecedented and likely logistically impossible without militarized operations on a scale unseen in modern history.
Challenges
Backlogs: Over 3.5 million pending immigration cases as of late 2024 slow legal deportations, though expedited removals could bypass courts.
Resources: Current ICE staffing (6,000 Enforcement and Removal officers) and detention space (44,000 in February 2025) are insufficient; scaling up would take years.
International Cooperation: Some countries (e.g., Cuba, Venezuela) resist accepting deportees, complicating efforts.
Economic Impact: Sectors like agriculture and construction rely on undocumented labor, and mass deportation could disrupt the economy, as noted by the Brookings Institution (4.2–6.8% GDP shrinkage).
Conclusion
Deporting 32 million illegal immigrants by January 20, 2029, starting from March 13, 2025, would require an average of 22,727 deportations per day for 1,408 days. Based on current and historical capabilities, this is not achievable within the timeframe. At a more feasible rate of 1 million per year (a significant increase from past efforts), it would take 32 years, meaning only about 3.8 million could be deported by January 20, 2029. Without a radical, unprecedented expansion of resources and infrastructure, the goal exceeds practical limits, extending well beyond 2029—potentially decades—under any realistic scenario.